Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 092132

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
232 PM MST Sat Dec 9 2017

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Saturday)
Issued at 231 PM MST Sat Dec 9 2017

Strong upper ridging persists across the western CONUS and a deep
upper trough across the eastern half of the country...with
northwest flow continuing across the northern plains. Surface high
pressure has built in across the MO valley with a surface low just
north of ND. Temps have risen into the 50s across most plains
locations with some temperatures east of the Black Hills hitting
the low 60s. Winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph will
continue through the afternoon...and decrease in the next couple
hours. Latest HRRR show warm air advection-related downsloping
winds keeping things breezy overnight across the foothills near
Sturgis to Black Hawk to Rapid City. Warmer air moving in will
bring temps into the 50s to low 60s across a wider area tomorrow
under mostly sunny skies. Would be surprised if a few locations
reached the mid 60s. A cold front will cross the area Sunday night
into Monday bringing cooler weather...but still above average.
Another breezy day is expected Monday with potential advisory
criteria winds. For the rest of the week...the baroclinic zone
with move back and forth bringing varied temperatures to the CWA.
Generally, however, temperatures will be in the 40s or 50s. The
next chance for precip will be late Friday into Saturday as an
upper wave crosses the area.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Sunday)
Issued At 1011 AM MST Sat Dec 9 2017

Gusty west/northwest winds will continue through the period,
especially on the northeast/east slopes of the Black Hills. VFR
conditions will continue. LLWS will develop over much of western
South Dakota around 00Z this evening and will continue until
around 12Z on Sunday morning.


Issued at 231 PM MST Sat Dec 9 2017

Unseasonably warm temperatures and very dry air are expected to
return tomorrow with relative humidities dropping to around 15
percent. West to northwest winds are expected to increase to 10
to 20 mph tomorrow...possibly with gusts up to 30 mph. These
conditions may result in critical fire weather conditions.


SD...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon
     for SDZ260>264.

WY...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon
     for WYZ299.



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