047
FXUS63 KUNR 131725
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1125 AM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Continued dry today with temps warming up through Monday

-Hot Monday with storms returning

-Unsettled conditions Tues-Wed with a significant cool down for
 Wednesday

-Semi-unsettled and warmer by the end of the week

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Saturday)
Issued at 121 AM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Eastern Pac upper ridge will support downstream unsettled flow
into the Northern Plains with another stronger upper trough
arriving by midweek. Before that, a period of shortwave ridging
will support warming temps through Monday, with triple digit heat
returning for Monday on parts of the SD Plains. Upper level NW
flow continues today. A weak impulse will traverse the flow and
support sfc trough through the region today. Not much effect
locally from this system other than a wind shift. Expect warmer
temps today with highs in the 80s and 90s under mostly sunny
skies. Digging NW flow upper trough will support downstream
ridging over the region Monday as associated WAA allows for even
hotter temps. Expect highs in the 90s and lower 100s Monday,
warmest on toward central SD. Lee side trough will shift east and
provide the focus for scattered showers and storms Monday
afternoon as deeper moisture shifts north into the region. This
will be in addition to terrain forced storms on the BH. Marginal
shear will be in place with sufficient ML CAPE, both enough to
support a few pulse strong cells. Upper impulse will shift east
overnight with storm chances in the evening, shifting east late.
Cool front will shift south over the region Tues with another set
of impulses expected across the region, supporting chances for
showers and storms, best chances in the afternoon and evening.
Strong cold front will then move through the region with much
cooler air expected in the area by Wed. Highs will be 20 to 25
degrees below seasonal averages Wed with 50s in the BH and 60s on
much of the Plains. Expect continued chances for showers/storms
with a decent cold pool aloft and cyclonic flow over the region.
Temps will moderate some Thur, with things drying out, although
low chances for showers/storms will linger through next weekend
given lingering unsettled westerly flow with sufficient moisture
in place.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Monday)
Issued At 1125 AM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025

VFR conditions should prevail through the period.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JC
AVIATION...Sherburn