Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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191
FXUS63 KUNR 230925
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
325 AM MDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Sunday Night
Issued at 305 AM MDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Upper trof moving across northern MT eastward with cold front
coming into eastern MT. Warm front from low in southeastern MT
across southern SD. Band of 70+ dewpoints over south central SD,
where some fog may form early this morning. Front will continue
to move to the east, clearing storms and high humidity from the
area. Depending on how fast it will move, some thunderstorms could
form over south central SD during the late morning and early
afternoon. Northwest winds will increase behind the front across
northwestern SD, with a few hours of 40 mph gusts. As the trof
moves toward the upper Great Lakes, a weak short wave crossing on
the northwest flow may produce some precipitation Sunday. 1000
j/kg CAPE over the Black Hills and upslope southeast surface winds
could help thunderstorm development. Temperatures will be much
cooler today.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Through Friday)
Issued at 305 AM MDT Sat Jul 23 2016

A series of shortwaves passing through nearly zonal flow will
bring daily chances of showers and thunderstorms to the region
next week. Highs will start in the 90s on Monday, gradually
cooling to the mid 80s by the end of the week. Models are hinting
at drier weather for next weekend as an upper ridge builds over
the western CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued At 305 AM MDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Patchy fog may develop across south central SD early
this morning, with local MVFR visibility. A cold front will pass
through the area this morning, bringing northwest winds of 15 to 30
mph, with gusts around 40 mph. The strongest winds will be across
the western SD plains. Winds will diminish this evening. Under
mostly clear skies, VFR conditions are expected through Sunday
morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued At 305 AM MDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Cold front will cross the area today with gusty northwest winds
increasing. Minimum relative humidities will drop below 20
percent for northeast Wyoming and 15 to 25 percent for much of
western South Dakota, so watch will be upgraded to Red Flag
Warning.

&&

.UNR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
     SDZ260>262-264.

WY...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
     WYZ259-297>299.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM...Pojorlie
AVIATION...Pojorlie
FIRE WEATHER...55



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