Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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617
FXUS63 KUNR 062032
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
132 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 132 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

VERY POTENT BUT COMPACT SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO TRAVERSE THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A SFC COLD FRONT QUICKLY ADVECTING SE TOWARD
THE FA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING VERY STRONG WINDS TO THE REGION FOR
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME /TONIGHT INTO SUN EVENING/. INITIAL
ROUND OF PRESSURE RISES AND CAA WILL ENSUE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...SUPPORTING A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS. DIURNAL
BL COOLING WILL SUBDUE WINDS MOST PLACES OUTSIDE OF TERRAIN
ENHANCED AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT. A SECONDARY BACKSIDE IMPULSE WILL
DIRECT RE-NEWED PRESSURE RISES ACROSS THE REGION SUN
MORNING,...WITH DIURNAL HEATING ALLOWING MIXING OF STRONGER
MOMENTUM TO THE SFC. BUFFR PROFILES SUGGEST VERY STRONG WINDS WITH
MIXING POTENTIALS SUPPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH
GUSTS IN THE 70S/S MPH. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE WINDS GUSTS
OVER 80 MPH IN FAR NW SD AND IN THE LEE OF THE BH GIVEN FLOW
ENHANCEMENT AROUND THE HILLS. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
LATE SUNDAY MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON PERIOD. LEFT ALL HEADLINES AS
IS.

AS FOR PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM...VERY DRY PROFILES PER RAOB
ANALYSIS CONFIRMS DISMAL QPF OUTPUT FROM MODELS. RETAIN A LOW
CHANCE MENTION IN THE HILLS WHERE UPSLOPE FORCING MAY SQUEEZE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...A FEW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS IN THE
SYSTEM COLD POOL MAY CLIP FAR EASTERN SCENTRAL SD SUN AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 132 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE STRONG WINDS FROM SUNDAY WILL BEGIN TO DIE DOWN
DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS TO BE
MAINLY DRY AS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND RIDGE SET UP IN THE EAST
AND WEST CONUS...RESPECTIVELY. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE FOR THE CENTRAL CONUS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM UP CONSIDERABLY BY MID WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS NWP GUIDANCE FORECASTS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO CLIP NORTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AROUND THIS SAME TIME...AN ARCTIC FRONT
WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST. GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN AS THE LOWEST SEVERAL
THOUSAND FEET REMAIN SATURATED AND BELOW FREEZING...BUT THE
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE IS DRY. ECMWF SOUNDINGS ARE A BIT MORE
SATURATED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND WOULD SUGGEST SNOW AS THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES...HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST MAINLY DRY FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD...BUT WILL MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW/ICE IN THE COMING
DAYS.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 132 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS WITH SUSTAINED NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF
40MPH...AND GUSTS EXCEEDING 60MPH.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM MST /MIDNIGHT CST/ THIS EVENING TO
     8 PM MST /9 PM CST/ SUNDAY FOR SDZ024-028-029-043-044-046-
     047-049.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR
     SDZ027-041-042.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012-013.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MST SUNDAY
     FOR SDZ014-025-026-030>032-072>074.

WY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR
     WYZ057.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MST SUNDAY
     FOR WYZ071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MCKEMY
AVIATION...MCKEMY



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