Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 170513
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1113 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER NORTHWESTERN IOWA WITH
HIGH ALONG THE SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER PUSHING INTO THE NRN
PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES TROF SLIDING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST WITH RIDGE OFF THE PACIFIC COAST BRINGING NWRLY FLOW TO OUR
AREA. VARIETY OF WEAK WAVES NOTED MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW.

FOR TONIGHT...A CHILLY NIGHT IS ON TAP AS COLD SFC HIGH CONTINUES
ITS PUSH INTO THE PLAINS...THOUGH COLDEST TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN TO
THE EAST. WITH WEAK WAVES MOVING THROUGH A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT
PRECIP MAY DEVELOP...MAINLY OVER THE WRN PTNS OF THE CWA.

ON THURSDAY...WARMER AIRMASS STARTS TO PUSH ITS WAY BACK INTO THE
AREA WITH TEMPS STARTING TO REBOUND. A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE
AS FLOW ALOFT REMAINS SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC. RIDGE PUSHES ITS WAY IN
OVERNIGHT BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND MILDER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHORTWAVE RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY...AS UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SURFACE
LOW TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH
STRONG PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN
BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS ON FRIDAY.
SHORTWAVE TROF LIFTS INTO CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT...AND MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO MAINLY NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. FLAT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SETS UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...BRINGING DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS. LONGWAVE UPPER TROF
DIGS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH STRONG RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. COULD SEE A FEW 80S ON TUESDAY. MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS INTERESTING AS UPPER TROF EJECTS ACROSS THE
ROCKIES WITH UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF...ALTHOUGH A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
IN TIMING/TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

AREAS MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT OVER NORTHEAST
WYOMING/WESTERN SD. LOCAL LIFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE BLACK HILLS AS SHSN WANE AND AREAS BR/FG DEVELOP AND CLOUDS
INTERSECT TERRAIN. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THIS MORNING...BECOMING
VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...HELGESON



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