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000
FXUS63 KUNR 050940
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
240 AM MST WED MAR 5 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 236 AM MST WED MAR 5 2014

09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM CENTRAL MT INTO
SOUTHEAST WY. WARMER AIR STILL CONFINED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE BLACK HILLS/WY. SD PLAINS PLAGUED BY ARCTIC AIR AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ST/BR PER LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND 11U-3.9U
SATELLITE LOOP. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY ALLOWING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO MOVE INTO WESTERN SD. PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD HELP SCOUR ST/BR OUT OF THE SD PLAINS
DURING THE DAY TODAY AS WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST.
SNOWCOVER IN PLACE AND POTENTIAL FOR WARM AIR TO RIDE UP/OVER
ARCTIC AIR COULD SPELL DISASTER FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON ON THE SD
PLAINS. HAVE LOWERED READINGS SOME OVER THESE AREAS AND LEFT AREAS
TO THE WEST IN THE 40S.

TONIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY SURGES EAST IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING OVER MT...MOVING INTO EASTERN ND. ISALLOBARIC FORCING
WILL KEEP WESTERLY COMPONENT TO WIND OVER WY/WESTERN SD RESULTING IN
TEMPERATURES STAYING UP/RISING...DEPENDING ON HOW HIGH TEMPERATURES
GET OVER THE SD PLAINS TODAY.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
ALLOWING COLD FRONT TO SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE CWA LATE IN THE
DAY...PASSING THROUGH REST OF CWA AT NIGHT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER
MT/ID WILL SWING EASTWARD THROUGH RIDGE BRINGING FORCING SUFFICIENT
FOR LOW POST FRONTAL CHANCE POPS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY
NIGHT. THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SHOULD BE RATHER
IMPRESSIVE AND THUS WE SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD 50S FOR HIGHS...AND
PEOPLE BREAKING OUT THE BERMUDA SHORTS AND SUNGLASSES.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 236 AM MST WED MAR 5 2014

BROAD SHORTWAVE TROF SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
FRIDAY...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL LIKELY BE OVER
NORTHEASTERN WY AND THE BLACK HILLS. AN UPPER RIDGE THEN DEVELOPS
OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...WITH DRY AND MILD WEATHER...
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE FROM SATURDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 236 AM MST WED MAR 5 2014

MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED THROUGH THIS MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...15