


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
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526 FXUS63 KUNR 292258 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 458 PM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe storms possible through this evening, mainly across the Black Hills and southwestern South Dakota. - Dry and seasonable conditions on Monday. - Hot with chances for isolated storms Tuesday through Thursday. - Increasing chances for storms late in the week (Friday and Saturday). && .DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Sunday) Issued at 209 PM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Strong to severe storms have developed over the Black Hills. Thunderstorms should persist through the evening with damaging winds and large hail being the main threat from the storms. Convection should move eastward and exit the CWA around midnight as the upper trough moves into the Central Plains. An upper ridge will build over the Rockies on Monday, before becoming centered over the forecast area by Wednesday. This will result in a drier northwest flow pattern to start the week. Overall, Monday looks to be dry and seasonal with subsidence behind the trough. Isolated thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday and Wednesday with increasing CAPE and shear. The upper ridge breaks down on Thursday, transitioning the area back to southwest flow, then zonal flow by Friday. Overall, this pattern would result in increasing chances for thunderstorms by the end of the week and to start the weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Monday Evening) Issued At 456 PM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Scattered TSRA (some with hail) will create local IFR conditions/gusty, erratic winds through 03z, especially over southwestern SD. Outside of storms and after 03z, VFR conditions should prevail. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Smith AVIATION...Helgeson