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000
FXUS63 KUNR 090434
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1034 PM MDT TUE JUL 8 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT TUE JUL 8 2014

CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA
INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. A FEW CUMULUS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK SHORTWAVE TOPPING
WESTERN CONUS RIDGE. FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH REMAINS ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH SHORT WAVE DROPPING THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA INTO
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH AREA OF
850-700MB THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS SOUTHWEST SOUTH LATE TONIGHT
HAVE 200-400J/KG CAPE AVAILABLE FOR ELEVATED UPDRAFTS.

INITIAL SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY MORNING...LEAVING
WEAK SUBSIDENCE ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
NORTHEAST WYOMING/BLACK HILLS/SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA ON NORTHERN
EDGE OF BETTER INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS MONTANA
WEDNESDAY EVENING...REACHING THE WESTERN DAKOTAS LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. COMBINATION OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND INCREASING
850-700MB THETA-E ADVECTION ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT
IN HIGHER POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT TUE JUL 8 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
CONUS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE AREA....BRINGING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN AND
BEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THE PERIOD LOOK TO
BE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE LATE THIS WEEK...LOWERING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
LEVELS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1031 PM MDT TUE JUL 8 2014

ISOLATED HIGH BASED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN SD LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH
ADDITIONAL ISOLD AFTN TSTMS FROM NERN WY THROUGH SRN SD. THESE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JOHNSON