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000
FXUS63 KUNR 081040
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
340 AM MST SUN DEC 8 2013

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 320 AM MST SUN DEC 8 2013

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS BROAD TROF OVER MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA
WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. AT THE
SURFACE...TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM NEAR ZERO ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA...TO NEAR 15 BELOW ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST WYOMING. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY LIGHT.

FOR TODAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY PRODUCING THE LIGHT SNOW WILL
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SNOW ENDING WEST TO
EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY
AFTERNOON. WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROF WILL SHIFT EAST WITH WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING BY THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...UPPER TROF AXIS SLIDES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS
NEXT SURFACE HIGH DROPS OUT OF CANADA...REINFORCING THE ARCTIC AIR
OVER THE AREA. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING INTO THE -25 TO -35
DEGREE RANGE ONCE AGAIN. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR
TONIGHT.

ON MONDAY...ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE DROPS OUT OF CANADA AS SURFACE
TROF SLIDES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE IN
TO THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 320 AM MST SUN DEC 8 2013

AN ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD.

ON TUESDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AND
A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW OVER PARTS OF
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING...THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND NORTHWESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. MODELS ARE GENERALLY SPLIT INTO TWO GROUPS ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY. IN THE FIRST GROUP THE WAA IS ABLE TO MIX
OUT THE COLDER AIR OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LEADING TO HIGHS IN THE
MID 20S BEFORE A COLD FRONT ARRIVES DURING THE LATE AFTN/EARLY
EVE...IN THE SECOND GROUP A COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN THE
MORNING...KEEPING HIGHS FROM CLIMBING OUT OF THE MID TEENS. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE WARMER SOLUTION FOR NOW WHILE WATCHING FOR BETTER
CONSENSUS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW ON TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG
THE FRONTAL ZONE AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES BACK IN.

MODEL CONSENSUS POINTS TO DRY WEATHER FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD IS A BIT OF A
PUZZLE AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE COLD AIR TO THE EAST AND
THE WARMER AIR TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO WAVER OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 320 AM MST SUN DEC 8 2013

-SN AND AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
EAST THIS MORNING ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS WILL REDEVELOP TONIGHT AS COLDER
AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM MST MONDAY
     FOR SDZ001-002-012-013-024-025-028-029-072-073.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM MST /MIDNIGHT CST/ THIS EVENING
     TO 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ MONDAY FOR SDZ014-026-027-030>032-
     041>044-046-047-049-074.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR SDZ001-002-
     012>014-025-072-073.

WY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM MST MONDAY
     FOR WYZ057-071.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST MONDAY
     FOR WYZ054>056-058.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR WYZ071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...10