Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 271158
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
558 AM MDT MON OCT 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT MON OCT 27 2014

UPPER TROUGH IS CROSSING THE REGION WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING WRN
SD ATTM. SECONDARY UPPER WAVE IS PUSHING THROUGH ERN MT WITH RAIN
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FROPA OVER SCNTRL SD...AND POST FRONTAL SHOWERS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE WY...THE NRN BLKHLS...TO NW SD.

CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS THE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS INTO AN UPPER LOW AND SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. SOME
OF THE PRECIP WILL WRAP AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AND MAY CREEP
INTO NW SD...BUT BULK OF PRECIP WILL STAY NORTH IN ERN MT/WRN ND.
OVERALL LITTLE QPF EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA. TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS
TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING TO 25 TO 40 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH POSSIBLE. MODELS ARE TRENDING A LITTLE STRONG
WITH WIND SPEEDS TODAY...SO HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND WIND ADVISORY
FARTHER EAST WHICH ALIGNS WELL WITH NEIGHBORING CWAS. WINDS WILL
DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...AND CHANCES
OF PRECIP WILL ALSO END AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER...BUT NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

COOLER TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA. SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO
MID 50S. NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL
BREEZY. WINDS WILL WEAK HEADING INTO TUE EVNG AS HIGH PRESSURE AXIS
CROSSES THE CWA.


&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT MON OCT 27 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION MID WEEK AND PERSIST
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE RESULT WILL BE A LONG STRETCH OF DRY WX AND
TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN AVERAGE. AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY BRINGING A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME TEMPERATURES LOOK WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN ON THE PLAINS WITH POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE
BLACK HILLS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 557 AM MDT MON OCT 27 2014

SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. MVFR CIGS/VSBY WITH
THE SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     FOR SDZ001-002-012>014-025-031-032-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON






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