Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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740
FXUS63 KUNR 191707
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1007 AM MST Thu Jan 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today Through Friday Night)
Issued at 147 AM MST Thu Jan 19 2017

Water vapor shows upper ridge over the nrn plains, with trof
moving onto the west coast. W/SW boundary flow keeping temps
rather mild tonight, especially at higher terrain.

Another mild day in store with upper ridge in place, although
thermal profiles suggest temps will not be quite as warm as
yesterday in most places. On Friday, a lead short wave ahead of
the west coast trof will push a weak a cdfnt through the cwfa,
which will drop temps a few more degrees and closer to seasonal
averages. Could see a bit of light rain/snow with the cdfnt, but
amounts will be very light.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Through Wednesday)
Issued at 147 AM MST Thu Jan 19 2017

An upper trough will deepen across the West Coast into the
weekend, bringing a gradual cooling trend and chances for
precipitation. Dry weather will return briefly Sunday, and then
precip chances increase again early next week. Latest model runs
show better agreement between the EC and GFS...bringing a closed
low across KS/NE during the Tue/Wed timeframe. This could bring
some snow accumulation to the area...thought the highest amounts
are still progged to be across NE. EC and GFS are ranging anywhere
from 2 to 8 inches from north to south respectively. Changes in
this solution are still expected considering this is still 6/7
days out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Friday)
Issued At 1006 AM MST Thu Jan 19 2017

MVFR/IFR conditions in low clouds will continue across
south central SD this afternoon, with VFR conditions over most of
the CWA. Fog may develop across central SD tonight, and MVFR/IFR
conditions are also expected Friday morning with snow in
northeastern WY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Johnson
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...Pojorlie



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