Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 190502
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1102 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 832 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

RADAR RETURNS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY FROM NCNTRL
WY THROUGH SERN MT SO HAVE UPPED POPS FOR FAR NERN WY AND NWRN SD
THE REST OF TONIGHT. LOWER LEVELS STILL QUITE DRY SO DO NOT EXPECT
TOO MUCH QFP FROM THIS ACTIVITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 222 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER CENTRAL SK WITH WARM FRONT INTO
WESTERN NE...AND COLD FRONT INTO EASTERN ID. SHORTWAVE NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR OVER NORTHWEST WY...SWIFTLY MOVING NORTHEAST. LOWER
60 TD/S HAVE POOLED ALONG WARM FRONT CREATING A GOOD AMOUNT OF
SBCAPE BUT THERMAL RIDGE BUILDING 800-600MB KEEPING CIN RATHER
HIGH ACROSS THE PLAINS.

TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WHISKS INTO ND PUSHING COLD FRONT INTO
CWA LATER THIS EVENING. COMBINATION OF FRONT/SHORTWAVE SHOULD
PRODUCE A FEW -TSRA ACROSS THE NORTHWEST 2/5THS OF THE CWA
OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET WILL CRANK AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT
BEST THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE NORTHEAST OF CWA. MAIN EFFECT WILL
LIKELY BE WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD FOR TONIGHT AND
POSSIBLE ST INTRUSION OVER THE FAR EAST LATE.

FRIDAY...COLD FRONT EXITS CWA WITH A FEW BREEZY SPOTS AS BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXES AND WEAK COOL ADVECTION CONTINUES. -TSRA POSSIBLE NEAR
COLD FRONT GIVEN WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH CWA LATE MORNING
THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES WILL BE LOW. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
TRICKY WITH MIXING BATTLING WEAK COOL AIR ADVECTION. HAVE SHOT
DOWN THE MIDDLE WITH FORECAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT...CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED AS -TSRA CHANCES QUICKLY PUSH
SOUTH OF CWA. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 222 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROF QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST AS ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS REBUILDS. NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
MODELS SHOW AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK CUT-OFF LOW CROSSING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP BRINGING
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE
LOW PUSHES THROUGH. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR TO JUST ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1059 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ON THE SD PLAINS...AND WILL
PROVIDE A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR DURING THE LATE EVENING
AND EARLY MORNING TIME PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING...BRINGING AN END TO THE LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR...WITH GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. SCT
-SHRA/-TSRA WILL CONTINUE OVER FAR NERN WY AND NWRN SD...WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS IN ANY HEAVY SHOWERS. SOME MVFR STRATUS WILL CREEP
NWD INTO SCNTRL SD OVERNIGHT.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...JOHNSON





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