Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 032303
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
503 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 204 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER WESTERN ND WITH TROUGH INTO
WESTERN OK AND WEAK COOL FRONT INTO SOUTHERN ID. WATER VAPOR SHOWED
SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN CO HEADING INTO SOUTHEAST WY/WESTERN NE.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON DISTURBANCE...WHICH
WILL WORK NORTH/NORTHEAST TONIGHT ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DEEP DRY
MIXING OVER CWA HAS RESULTED IN LITTLE MLCAPE OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA...WITH ABOUT 1KJ/KG MLCAPE OVER THE EAST...BUT
WITH DECENT MLCIN. EXPECT HIGH-BASED -TSRA TO SNEAK INTO CWA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREAD NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. GUSTY WINDS A
THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS GIVEN DCAPE/WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.

FRIDAY...LEFTOVER ACTIVITY WILL WANE IN THE MORNING WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINING OVER CWA. THESE BOUNDARIES WILL BE FOCUS FOR
-TSRA LATE IN THE DAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW BRINGS BACK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. IT IS LIKELY A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL WAFT THROUGH THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
TRICKY WITH SOME CLOUD COVER CONCERNS...SO HAVE LOWERED SOME IN
THE NORTHWEST BUT KEPT READINGS NEAR GUIDANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST
WHERE THERMAL RIDGE/BEST MIXING COINCIDE.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 204 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE NRN ROCKIES SAT AND INTO THE ERN MT/WRN
ND SUN. MODELS ARE STILL CONSISTENTLY SHOWING THE AREA GETTING DRY
SLOTTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ON SATURDAY. CONTINUED THE TREND OF
REDUCING POPS. STILL LOOKS PRETTY WARM ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWER 90S. COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUN WITH COOLER TEMPS AND BREEZY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST SD. SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG TEMPS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION...BUT OTHERWISE NEXT WEEK LOOKS MAINLY
DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 501 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

ISOLD/SCT TSRA EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVE...ESPECIALLY OVER CNTRL
SD. MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THESE
STORMS. ADDITIONAL SCT -SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE MRNG ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA...BUT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...JOHNSON



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