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000
FXUS63 KUNR 040008
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
508 PM MST TUE DEC 3 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 505 PM MST TUE DEC 3 2013

MADE ADJUSMENTS TO HEADLINES...DOWNGRADING NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA
AND NORTHEAST WYOMING TO ADVISORY AND UPGRADING SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA TO WARNING.

SHORT RANGE MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH FOCUS FOR SNOWFALL
SHIFTING INTO SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...WITH
MINIMUMAL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO
BACK OFF ON THE STRONGER WINDS. OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIER SNOW IN
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...THE BIGGEST IMPACT THROUGH
THE NIGHT WILL BE BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS AND LINGERING ICY
SPOTS ON ROADWAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 137 PM MST TUE DEC 3 2013

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES WITH A JET STREAK CROSSING THE GREAT BASIN INTO SOUTHERN
WYOMING. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE ARCTIC FRONT CONTINUING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH NEBRASKA. EVEN COLDER AIR OVER EASTERN MONTANA
INTO NORTH DAKOTA IS KEEPING TEMPERATURES THERE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS. KUDX RADAR SHOWS SNOW LINGERING ACROSS NW SD WITH MORE SNOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL SD.

SNOW IS EXPECTED CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA BEFORE ENDING WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH LINGERING SNOW OVER
NORTHWEST SD. THIS MORNINGS THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE THREW ANOTHER
CURVE BALL SHOWING A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS AT 700MB DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD...WHICH WOULD RESULT
IN 3 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. KUDX
RADAR SHOWED THIS SNOWFALL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST SD BY MIDDAY. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED EARLIER FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
SD...BUT WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE WILL ALSO INCLUDE FALL RIVER AND
SHANNON COUNTIES. SNOWFALL REPORTS ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA
INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND BEEN GENERALLY RANGING FROM 5 TO
10 INCHES OF SNOW. LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THESE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WINDS HAVE BEEN WEAKER THAN EXPECTED TODAY...BUT AS COLDER AIR
ADVECTS THIS EVENING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP TO +20KT CAUSING
BLOWING SNOW AND VISIBILITY ISSUES ACROSS THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE
WITH ALL PREVIOUSLY ISSUED HEADLINES. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
GUSTY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH VISIBILITY CONTINUING TO BE A PROBLEM
THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OR
COLDER...TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 137 PM MST TUE DEC 3 2013

THE REGION WILL REMAIN DEEPLY ENTRENCHED IN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A LARGE UPPER TROF COVERING THE CNTRL
CONUS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PRODUCES WEAK WARM ADVECTION OVER
THE COLD DOME OF ARCTIC AIR AT THE SURFACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 459 PM MST TUE DEC 3 2013

WIDESPREAD SNOW WITH MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
     SDZ044-046-047-049.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ001-002-
     012>014-024>032-041>043-072>074.

WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ054>058-
     071.

&&

$$

UPDATE...7
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...7