Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 282110
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
310 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

CLOSED LOW ACROSS MN/IA BORDER CONTINUES TO WEAKEN TODAY. NORTH
TO NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE KEPT IN COOLER AIR ACROSS
THE CWA. WEAK RA/SN SHOWERS DEVELOPED NEAR WALL TO WASTA...MOVING
EASTWARD BEFORE MOSTLY DISSIPATING. TEMPS HAVE REACHED THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S...WITH SOME OF THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS NW SD WHERE
SNOW COVER CONTINUES THOUGH MELTING. PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO END
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO THEN
EXT UPPER LOW NOW SITTING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL
DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WHILE AREAS OF FOG REDEVELOPS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE WY THROUGH WRN SD. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE
INTO COLORADO FRIDAY WITH WRAPAROUND PRECIP MOVING INTO ERN CO TO
THE NEB PNHNDLE. THE MODELS SHOW THIS PRECIP MOVING NORTH INTO
SW/SCNTRL SD MAINLY THROUGH THE AFTN INTO THE EVNG HOURS THOUGH
THERE ARE SOME RELATIVELY MINOR MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING. CHANCES
WILL INCREASE THROUGH FRI NIGHT. TEMP PROFILES SHOW THE PRECIP
FALLING AS RAIN...OR AS SNOW BUT WARM ENOUGH TO HINDER ACCUMULATION.
SOME OF THESE AREAS COULD SEE A QUARTER TO AN INCH OF QPF JUST BY
12Z SAT. COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE HILLS WILL BE BETTER FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW...HOWEVER SINCE THE BULK OF QPF WILL BE
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE HILLS...NOT MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO OF
OVERNIGHT ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT EWD ALONG THE NEB/KANSAS BORDER ON SATURDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION CONTINUING ESPECIALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF I90.
THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR SOME SNOW...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF ACCUMULATIONS LIMITED TO HIGHER TERRAIN. PRECIPITATION
SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY...WITH UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING
OUR WEATHER FOR THE DURATION OF NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN DRY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

RATHER WDSPRD MVFR CIGS...WITH HIGHER TERRAIN IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS...EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
AREAL EXTENT OF IFR CIGS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...WITH SOME AREAS OF
LIFR CIGS/FOG EXPECTED AROUND THE BLKHLS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON



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