Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 150501
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1101 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 146 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER THE SRN PRAIRIE
PROVINCES INTO ERN MT/WRN ND. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER
SRN HUDSON BAY WITH TROF DROPPING TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO
THE SRN PLAINS. RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE WRN CONUS BRINGING FAST
N/NWRLY FLOW TO OUR AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY SOME
PASSING CLOUDS. UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST OVER THE ROCKIES AND
STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AS STRONG SHORT WAVE PUSHES OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND STARTS ITS APPROACH.

ON TUESDAY...POTENT SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN RIDGE WHILE
SFC LOW DEEPENS OVER ERN MT. WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 60S OVER THE SERN CWA.
SFC LOW PUSHES INTO THE NWRN CWA BY EARLY EVENING AND S CTRL/SERN
SD OVERNIGHT WITH COLD FRONT WRAPPING IN. POTENT SHORT WAVE PUSHES
INTO THE CWA WITH AREAS OF PRECIP DEVELOPING. PRECIP SHOULD START
OUT AS RAIN OVER MOST AREAS...WITH A TRANSITION TOWARDS SNOW AS
COLD AIR MOVES IN BEHIND FRONT. GREATEST PRECIP CHANCES/EXPECTED
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE OVER THE NRN BLKHLS WHERE FROUDE ANALYSIS
CONTINUES TO INDICATE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.


&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 146 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014

STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE NRN
PLAINS ON WED BRINGING RAIN/SNOW TO THE REGION ALONG WITH GUSTY NW
WINDS AND COLDER TEMPS...WITH RELATIVELY STRONG UPSLOPE SIGNATURE
CONTINUING IN THE NRN BLKHLS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. PCPN CHANCES
WILL BE LOWER WED NIGHT AS STRONG SHORT WAVE PULLS EAST OF THE
REGION...BUT WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FCST THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
MAIN UPPER TROF FINALLY WORKS EAST. NEXT SHORT WAVE QUICKLY MOVES IN
BY FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NEXT POSSIBLE ROUND OF RAIN/SNOW...MAINLY FOR
OUR NRN ZONES. UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER AND MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1056 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014

VFR CONDITIONS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS WILL
LIKELY SPREAD SE INTO THE FA TUE EVENING OVER FAR NW PORTIONS OF
THE FA BEHIND A SFC COLD FRONT WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN.
RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW LATE IN THE PERIOD NW TO SE WITH VIS
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED NE WY AND ESP OVER THE BLACK HILLS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JC






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