Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 142131
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
231 PM MST Tue Feb 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening Through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 229 PM MST Tue Feb 14 2017

With an upper ridge over the western CONUS, flow is
northwesterly over the northern plains. Skies across the region are
mostly sunny. Surface high pressure is moving in from the west, and
northwest winds are somewhat breezy. Temperatures are in the 40s.

Winds will become southwesterly tonight ahead of the next surface
trough, possibly a bit breezy across northeastern WY. Under mostly
clear skies, lows will be in the 20s to lower 30s.

Warm air will continue moving into the region as the upper ridge
slowly transitions eastward. With breezy west-southwest winds,
temperatures Wednesday will reach the mid 50s to mid 60s. Lows
Wednesday night will be in the 30s, and mostly clear skies will
continue.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Through Tuesday)
Issued at 229 PM MST Tue Feb 14 2017

Mild and dry weather will continue through the week and
into the weekend. Upper ridge axis will move over the central states
Thursday, and temperatures will reach near record values in the 60s.
The downsloping northern/eastern foothills may even see lower 70s on
Thursday. Toward the end of the work week into the weekend, upper
flow becomes more southwesterly ahead of a Pacific trough. A weak
wave will bring slightly cooler, but still above average,
temperatures for Friday. Then a slight warming trend is expected for
the weekend. Models continue to show an upper trough moving through
the region early next week, which may bring some light rain/snow to
the area. However, decreased PoPs as the ECMWF and GFS are trending
weaker with less precip for the CWA; the Canadian seems to be the
outlier with more precip.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued At 229 PM MST Tue Feb 14 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Southwest
winds will be breezy across northeastern WY tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued At 229 PM MST Tue Feb 14 2017

With well above average temperatures this week, min RH values
across parts of northeastern WY will dip into the 20s on Wednesday
and the teens on Thursday. Southwest winds will be around 15-25
mph across northeastern WY both days. Since conditions are
marginal, will hold off on headlines.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Pojorlie
LONG TERM...Pojorlie
AVIATION...Pojorlie
FIRE WEATHER...Pojorlie



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