Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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747
FXUS63 KUNR 170905
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
305 AM MDT SUN MAY 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SUN MAY 17 2015

CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES LOW ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...WITH COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
UPPER LOW LIFTING THROUGH NEBRASKA INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT.

FOR TODAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD...WITH GRADIENT
INCREASING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
FORECAST AREA.

PRECIPITATION ENDS TONIGHT AS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE BLACK
HILLS INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS. HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE AREA FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. MAY
BE SOME PATCHY FROST MONDAY NIGHT ON THE PLAINS OF WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SUN MAY 17 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
GENERAL PATTERN FOR THE WEEK...WITH PERSISTENT UPPER TROF ALONG THE
WEST COAST BRINGING A SERIES OF SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
UNSETTLED WX WILL RETURN TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN LOOK TO BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY. COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL LIMIT
ACTIVITY TO MAINLY RAIN AND RAIN SHOWERS. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES DO
LOOK COLD ENOUGH AT THIS POINT FOR SOME SNOW ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
LIKELY. PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY AND THE FAR WESTERN SD PLAINS COULD
SEE A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW MIX IN AS WELL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY. WEAKER DISTURBANCES WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE LATTER PART IN THE WEEK...WITH ANOTHER
STRONGER SYSTEM POSSIBLY BRINGING MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL NEXT
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS...40S OVER THE
BLACK HILLS MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SUN MAY 17 2015

AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA CAN
BE EXPECTED TODAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT
CROSS THE AREA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
MOST PLACES. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35
KTS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE NORTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL SD PLAINS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26



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