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000
FXUS63 KUNR 280520
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1120 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SFC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS
THE DIGGING GREAT LAKES TROUGH SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT. WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY FIXED AS THE CURRENT NW PAC MID LEVEL
IMPULSE ROUNDS THE RIDGE AND HEADS TOWARD THE REGION MONDAY. QUIET
WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THIS RIDGE
TOPPING IMPULSE WILL REFLECT LL POS THETA-E ADV AT THE BASE OF AN
ADVECTING EML AND POSSIBLY SUPPORT ISOLD SHRA/TS MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT SW HALF.

TONIGHT...LINGERING BL CLOUDS OVER THE NE THROUGH EAST WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING...WITH PERHAPS SOME LINGERING 4-5 KFT CLOUDS ACROSS
SCENTRAL SD THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...SLACKENING WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL SUPPORT COOL CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT
LOW IN THE 50S AND UPPER 40S EXPECTED...WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN IN THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS.

MONDAY...SFC RIDGE WILL SHIFT SE OF THE REGION WITH WINDS VEERING
EASTERLY. RIDGE TOPPING IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX WILL ADVECT
INTO NORTHERN WY MON AFTERNOON SUPPORTING TS DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE
FA. THIS IMPULSE WILL SHIFT ESE INTO THE FA MONDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY
SUPPORTING ISOLD CONVECTION SW HALF AS A LL POS THETA-E ADV REGIME
DEVELOPS. POSSIBLE TS CLUSTERS /MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN/ MAY PUSH
INTO THE WESTERN FA EARLY EVENING...WITH OTHER ELEVATED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT SW HALF. IN ADDITION...THE
DEPARTING MID LEVEL JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES UPPER
TROUGH MAY SUPPORT SOME ENHANCED LIFT ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN
COLLOCATION OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION WITH LL POS THETA-E ADV.
HENCE...CARRIED LOW POPS THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT NE WY THROUGH
SCENTRAL SD...MAINLY ON THE NORTHERN GRADIENT OF H7 THETA-E.
OTHERWISE...SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH MID TO UPPER 50S
COMMON.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM ACROSS THE WRN
CONUS...WITH WEAK NW FLOW PERSISTING OVER THE REGION. A SERIES OF
UPPER WAVE WILL DRIFT ACROSS ID/WY/ERN CO TUE TO WED. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES OF STORMS TO NE WY INTO SW SD TUE/TUE NIGHT. OTHERWISE
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED
STORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE BLKHLS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
TSRA MAY DEVELOP OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...HELGESON