Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 191725
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1125 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY...WITH A STRONGER
SECONDARY NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH EXPECTED INTO THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT. PRIMARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS CLEARED MOST OF THE
FA...SAVE SCENTRAL SD...WITH LINGERING POST FRONTAL SHRA OVER THE
FAR NW FA PER ONGOING LSA WITH PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH. LINGERING
SHRA WILL WANE THIS MORNING OVER THE NW FA...WITH RESIDUAL CLOUD
BAND SHIFTING SE ACROSS THE FA TODAY. WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL SPREAD
OVER THE FA THIS AFTERNOON...HIGHLY LIMITING PRECIP CHANCES...SAVE
FOR THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN BH WHERE DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND TERRAIN
INDUCED SOUTHERN HILLS EDDY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SHRA OR TS
THIS AFTERNOON. CUT POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA THIS
AFTERNOON...LEAVING ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OVER THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN BH PER LINGERING POST FRONT MOISTURE. COOLER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY MOST AREAS...WITH 70S AND 80S FOR
HIGHS...WARMEST SCENTRAL SD. SECONDARY/STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO ND TONIGHT...WITH A WEAK LL
REFLECTION SUPPORTING A WEAK POS THETA-E ADV SURGE OVER NE AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN FA THIS EVENING. HAVE RETAINED A
SMALL POP THERE FOR THIS...HOWEVER MOST ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE FA. SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE FA SAT. LACK OF SIG MOISTURE PRECLUDES
ANY PRECIP CHANCES WITH A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TRACK. MODERATE
CAA/PRESSURE RISE SURGE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT INCREASING
LL MOMENTUM FIELDS ACROSS THE SD PLAINS. BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED AS DIURNAL MIXING AND STEEP LL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT
DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER SAT AFTERNOON. NEAR WIND ADV CRITERIA
LIKELY ACROSS THE NW SD PLAINS SAT AFTERNOON. COOLER CONDS
EXPECTED SAT NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BRIEFLY
SUNDAY...MAKING FOR A MILD AND DRY DAY. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
ABOUT A CUT-OFF LOW MOVING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH CONDITIONS DRYING OUT AGAIN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS
RIDGING SETS UP AGAIN. HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

BREEZY N/NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY MAINLY OVER THE NW SD
PLAINS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVNG. A FEW -SHRA/-TSRA ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTN/EVNG OVER THE BLKHLS AND SW/SCNTRL SD...BUT VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SAT MRNG.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...13






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