Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 282120
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
320 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
NEB...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE ROCKIES. WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS IS BRINGING SMOKE INTO THE AREA FROM
THE PACIFIC NW WILDFIRES. HAZY SUNSHINE IS NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA...WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S...SOME 70S OVER THE BLACK HILLS.
WINDS ARE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER MUCH OF NORTHEAST WY AND WESTERN
SD...WITH VARIABLE WINDS OVER CENTRAL SD.

WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
BLACK HILLS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL
DRIFT EAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND...BRINGING VERY
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY. SMOKE WILL
STILL PUSH OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY...
WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY. LOWS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
NIGHTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 80S IN
THE BLACK HILLS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE PAC NW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY WARM CONDS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...GROWING INDICATIONS FOR PHASING OF THE
NW PAC UPPER TROUGH WITH A STRONG NORTHER CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH
WILL LIKELY LEAD TOWARD THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN BY NEXT WEEKEND.
IN THE MEANTIME...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDS. WARMEST DAY IN THE PERIOD
REMAINS SUNDAY WHEN A THERMAL RIDGE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION.
ASSOCIATED JET STREAK MAY SUPPORT A FEW SHRA/TS OVER NE WY AND FAR
WESTERN SD SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN NIGHT...MAINLY HIGH BASED
ACTIVITY. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...SUPPORTING COOLER...BUT STILL SEASONAL TEMPS MONDAY.
CENTRAL NOAM RIDGE WILL RE-SURGE TUE-WED /POSSIBLY INTO
THU/...WITH VERY WARM CONDS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN THEN. NW PAC UPPER
TROUGH WILL BIAS EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH COOLER WEATHER
LOOKING MORE LIKELY WITH POTENTIAL INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDS WITH ISOLD AREAS OF MVFR VIS POSSIBLE
IN SMOKE FROM WESTERN WILDFIRES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA PLAINS WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 90S...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS DROPPING TO 10% OR
BELOW. SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO LOOK MARGINAL FOR SATURDAY
ALTHOUGH STILL IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE. HOWEVER...POOR RH
RECOVERY IS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL GUSTY SW WINDS.
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH LOOK MORE LIKELY SUNDAY...WITH RED FLAG
CONDS ALSO POSSIBLE THEN. HENCE...HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     EVENING FOR WYZ259-297-298.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC
FIRE WEATHER...JC



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