Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
239
FXUS63 KUNR 020523
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1023 PM MST MON FEB 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 310 PM MST MON FEB 1 2016

CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS A INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CO...MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. ENERGY
STREAMING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE LOW IS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW INTO
NORTHEAST WY AND SOUTHWEST SD THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHEAST WY AND SOUTHERN SD
LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON RANGE FROM THE
MID 20S OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS TO NEAR
40 OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST.

LATEST SET OF MODEL RUNS STILL SHOW THE FORECAST AREA REMAINING ON
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE STORM SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE GFS AND NAM SHOW A SLIGHTLY
MORE NORTHERLY TRACK OF THE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A BIT
MORE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.,,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST SD. HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY INTO FAR
SOUTHWEST SD AND THE SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS...WHERE 2 TO 4 INCHES
LOOKS LIKELY IN MOST AREAS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS
AND FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AREA. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK HILLS AREA...AND FAR SOUTHERN SD...1 TO 3
INCHES ARE EXPECTED. WEAK UPSLOPE EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW COULD PRODUCE
A LITTLE HEAVIER SNOWFALL ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLACK
HILLS. TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE BLACK HILLS...AN INCH OR LESS CAN BE
EXPECTED...WITH NO SNOW LIKELY OVER FAR NORTHWEST SD.

ON TUESDAY...SNOW WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
SD...ESPECIALLY SOUTH CENTRAL SD...AS THE LOW TRACKS FROM WESTERN KS
TO EASTERN NEB DURING THE DAY. LINGERING SNOW ELSEWHERE WILL TAPER
OFF DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON
HOURS AS INSTABILITY INCREASES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. WILL
KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTHERN
HILLS. HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 20S. BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD IN THE AFTERNOON ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM. WILL LEAVE LOW CHANCES FOR SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT OVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 310 PM MST MON FEB 1 2016

MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL
LEAD TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. DUE TO A LACK OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED EXCEPT OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS WHERE
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW TO DEVELOP A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS. DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE QUICKLY CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY
NIGHT BUT WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH WILL LEAVE THAT
PERIOD DRY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN REBOUND...WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO
MONDAY...SO HAVE INCLUDED LOW POPS FOR THOSE PERIODS. TEMPERATURES
WILL SHOW A WARMING TREND FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
WARMEST DAY WILL BE ON SATURDAY WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE. A
RETURN TO SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1005 PM MST MON FEB 1 2016

SNOW CONTINUES IN NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA THIS EVENING...AND EXPECT SNOW TO GRADUALLY EXPAND
NORTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING. CIGS/VIS IN AREAS OF SNOWFALL WILL BE
IN THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORY...WITH ISOLATED LIFR CIGS/VIS. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
BEFORE IMPROVING LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR SDZ027-041.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR SDZ029.

WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR WYZ055-058.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...MCKEMY



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.