Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 232213
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
413 PM MDT SUN AUG 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT SUN AUG 23 2015

UPPER RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. VERY FEW CLOUDS TOPPING THE RIDGE
AXIS...PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS OVER EASTERN MN-WESTERN SD-WESTERN NE WITH RETURN FLOW ON
THE WEST SIDE. RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...AND BE
OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS BY MORNING...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER NIGHT
OF COOL TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY OVER WEST CENTRAL SD WHERE
SLIGHT COOL AIR ADVECTION REMAINS AS WINDS SHIFT FROM NE TO SE.
LEE TROF STRENGTHENS MONDAY...BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT SUN AUG 23 2015

A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING WARMING
TEMPERATURES TO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE MAY CLOSE OFF INTO A WEAK UPPER
LOW BY THURSDAY AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT
GUIDANCE IS STILL UNCERTAIN WITH THE EXACT EVOLUTION. CERTAINLY A
FEW -SHRA/-TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE SHORTHWAVE MOVES THROUGH.
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD
EXCEPT THURSDAY/FRIDAY WHEN INCREASED CLOUD COVER/POPS ARE EXPECTED
TO KEEP READINGS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 413 PM MDT SUN AUG 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...7


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