Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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457
FXUS63 KUNR 202313
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
513 PM MDT SAT AUG 20 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening Through Sunday Night)
Issued at 220 PM MDT Sat Aug 20 2016

Water vapor imagery shows upper trough exiting the nrn plains
as it pushes into the upper Midwest. NW flow aloft continues with a
wave crossing wrn SD at this time. Upper ridging dominates the wrn
CONUS...and begin building across the region tonight behind the
departing wave. Low/mid clouds across the CWA have begun to
dissipate as diurnal heating nears its peak. Temps are currently in
the upper 60s to low 70s across the plains...and upper 50s to low
60s over the BH. Skies will clear out over the next few hours.
Surface high pressure will push through the plains states overnight
with winds predominately light/variable. Temps will drop into the
40s to low 50s. Surface high axis will slide east of the CWA Sunday
with return flow/warm air advection setting up. Sunny skies expected
with highs warming into the 80s...with 70s/low 80s over the BH.
Skies will remain clear Sunday night with lows dropping into the
50s/low 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Through Saturday)
Issued at 220 PM MDT Sat Aug 20 2016

Upper/thermal ridge will peak Monday with temperatures well into
the 90s over the Plains. An upper level trough will move along the
US/Canadian border for Tuesday through Thursday. It will drag a
cold front into the CWA late Tuesday, but the boundary layer will
be quite dry so PoPs will be limited as the trough moves through.
Larger scale upper trough will develop over central North America
for the end of the week into next weekend creating an east/west
temperature gradient over the CWA -- cooler in the east and warmer
in the west. PoPs will be low as a series of weak disturbances
move through.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued At 512 PM MDT Sat Aug 20 2016

VFR conditions will continue with mostly clear skies.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued At 220 PM MDT Sat Aug 20 2016

Hot and dry conditions expected Sunday and Monday. Temperatures
Sunday will be in the 80s, with 90s expected Monday. Minimum
relative humidity values will range from near 10% across
northeastern WY to around 25% across south central SD both days.
Winds in the driest areas should be light enough to preclude
headlines, although there is some concern for southwest SD Monday
given low level jet Sunday night over central SD. The strongest
winds are expected across south central SD Monday, where minimum
relative humidities will be around 20 percent.

&&

.UNR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...Helgeson
AVIATION...10
FIRE WEATHER...Helgeson



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