Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 150834

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
234 AM MDT Sat Oct 15 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today Through Sunday Night)
Issued at 224 AM MDT Sat Oct 15 2016

Upper flow is west to southwest, with 110-kt jet over
the northwestern CONUS. Weak wave, along with upper divergence, is
producing a few showers across the MT/SD/ND borders. Satellite shows
a mostly cloudy northern plains region. At the surface, low
pressure is over northeastern SD, and cold front is mostly through
the CWA. Northwest winds have become gusty across parts of the
western SD plains. Temperatures at 2AM range from the low 40s
across northeastern WY and the Black Hills to the mid 60s across
south central SD.

Cool high pressure will sink into the area today, keeping winds
light and variable across much of the CWA. Another surface low to
the southwest will bring some breezy southwesterly winds to parts of
northeastern WY and far southwestern SD. Highs will be cooler but
still above average, mainly in the 70s. Skies will be partly cloudy.

Clouds will increase tonight, with breezy winds increasing from the
southwest ahead of the next low-level trough/upper-level wave.
Downsloping winds over the northeastern foothills may become gusty
by early morning. Lows will be in the 40s.

Warm air will continue to advect into the CWA with gusty
southwesterly winds. Temperatures will rise into the 80s across much
of the western SD plains; however, a cold front will begin passing
through the area and keep highs closer to 70 across the northwestern
CWA. Another shortwave will approach the region overnight, bringing
some showers to northeastern WY and the Black Hills.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Through Friday)
Issued at 224 AM MDT Sat Oct 15 2016

Westerly flow aloft will lead to warmer than average temperatures
through most of next week, except for a brief period of slightly
cooler than average temperatures during the middle of the week as
an upper trough crosses the northern plains. The warmest day of
next week should be Monday with readings reaching the 60s west and
70s east.

Expect low chances of showers Monday and Tuesday, but there will be
a better chance of showers on Wednesday as the cooler air arrives.
Models diverge on the strength and timing of the upper features for
the end of the week, but mainly dry weather is foreseen.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued At 224 AM MDT Sat Oct 15 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the period.


Issued At 224 AM MDT Sat Oct 15 2016

Another warm and dry day is expected on Sunday, especially across
southwestern into south central SD. Highs will be in the lower
80s, and minimum relative humidity values will approach 15%. With
gusty southwest winds expected, fire weather conditions may become
critical. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued.


SD...Fire Weather Watch Sunday afternoon for SDZ263-265.



SHORT TERM...Pojorlie
LONG TERM...Helgeson
FIRE WEATHER...Pojorlie is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.