Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 241704
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1104 AM MDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today Through Monday Night)
Issued at 257 AM MDT Sun Jul 24 2016

Shortwave trof developing over srn MT-nwrn WY is producing
showers/ isolated thunderstorms over northeastern WY into
northwestern SD. While Bowman ND radar shows good returns,
probably not much precip reaching the ground with dry air at low
levels. New cells have formed over southwestern SD ahead of
another shortwave enhanced by small jet streak over WY.
Showers/isolated thunderstorms should continue to move
northeastward this morning. Surface high over western SD will
drift to the south through the day. Alhough CAPE is minimal at
best, upslope surface winds around the eastern edge of the Black
Hills will help convection this afternoon, so have just isolated
thunderstorms in the forecast. Next lee trof approaches Mon, with
increasing southerly winds bringing moisture back to the area and
chances of thunderstorms. Temperatures will be cooler today with
increased cloud cover, then warmer Mon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Through Saturday)
Issued at 257 AM MDT Sun Jul 24 2016

A series of shortwaves will bring daily chances of showers and
thunderstorms to the area through the rest of the week. Above
average temperatures will continue on Tuesday under nearly zonal
upper flow. Then a slight cooldown to the mid 80s is expected for
the latter half of the week as a building western CONUS upper
ridge puts the region under northwest flow. The ridge will shift
eastward next weekend, resulting in drier and warmer weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Monday)
Issued At 1104 AM MDT Sun Jul 24 2016

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through the
afternoon before dissipating by early evening. Expect VFR cigs/vis
through the period.

&&

.UNR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM...Pojorlie
AVIATION...McKemy



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