Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 270903

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
303 AM MDT Thu Oct 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today Through Friday Night)
Issued at 301 AM MDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Strong upper ridge will remain across the region today as the main
axis crosses the CWA. In the low levels...southwest flow will today
will bring warmer temps to the area along with dry conditions. Highs
today will reach the 70s to low 80s...with the warmest locations
across western South Dakota plains east of the Black Hills. A
surface low will cross southern Canada tonight with a trough
crossing the region. Southwest winds will switch to the northwest
overnight into Friday morning. Lows tonight will reach the mid 40s
to mid 50s. Cooler air will gradually filter into the region through
the day Friday with highs ranging from the mid 60s across northeast
Wyoming to around 80 across south central South Dakota. A
stronger cold front will approach from the north while an upper
wave crosses Wyoming. This forcing will bring rain showers to the
area Friday night. The best chances will be across northeast
Wyoming...the Black Hills...and northwest South Dakota. The
highest elevations of the Black Hills may see it transition to
snow late Friday night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Through Wednesday)
Issued at 301 AM MDT Thu Oct 27 2016

mean eastern pac troughing will support active/progressive sw
flow over the region through the period, with split flow
tendencies. The strongest mid level trough and associated sfc
cyclone will progress through the region sun-mon, bringing another
round of very mild and possible record highs Sunday along with
chances for showers Monday. Monday/s precip looks to be
fgen/banded and over a confined area as opposed to more widespread
and at this time looks to favor the northern half of the fa.
Temperatures will remain fairly warm and mild for late oct/early
nov with highs in the 50s- 70s and lows in the 30s-40s after sat.
Sat will be the coolest day in the period as a large high pressure
is progged to build southeast into the upper Midwest and northern
plains. ENE flow will prevail then with many places struggling out
of the 40s for highs. Staunch waa will ensue sat night, supporting
a very warm day Sunday under sw ll flow. A strong cold front will
support cooler temps Monday with windy conds possible depending on
the strength of the system and linkage of flow.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued At 301 AM MDT Thu Oct 27 2016

VFR conditions will continue through the period.




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