Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 110930

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
230 AM MST Wed Jan 11 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today Through Thursday Night)
Issued at 213 AM MST Wed Jan 11 2017

Current surface map shows arctic front surging southward south of
the forecast area. A few locations in northeast Wyoming and
northwest South Dakota have dropped below zero with wind chills
around 20 below zero. Jet steak providing some forcing along mid
level baroclinic zone resulting in area of snow across northeast
Wyoming into western South Dakota. Band of snow expected to shift
southward and weaken this morning. Weak forcing will continue
across southern half of forecast area through this evening.
1020+mb high settles in across the central Dakotas tonight with
most locations dropping below zero. Dry weather expected on
Thursday as core of arctic air shifts east. Warmest temperatures
will be in the higher elevations of the Black Hills.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Through Tuesday)
Issued at 213 AM MST Wed Jan 11 2017

By Friday, weak upper ridging will develop over the
northwestern CONUS, and the Canadian low pressure systems will shift
eastward, along with the arctic airmass. This will initiate a
gradual warming trend through early next week, with temperatures
returning to near average values (mid 30s) Sunday into Monday. Dry
weather is also expected through the weekend. An upper low will
track under the ridge across the central plains on Monday. Latest
GFS track is aligning more with the EC, although a bit slower, and
the GFS/EC/GEM all show precip barely making it into south central
SD. Elsewhere, dry weather will continue, along with near to above
average temperatures through the middle of next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued At 213 AM MST Wed Jan 11 2017

MVFR/IFR conditions in light snow will continue over much
of the area through this evening, with better ceilings/visibility
across northwestern SD. Conditions will gradually improve to VFR
after midnight.


SD...Wind Chill Advisory until noon MST today for SDZ001-002.



LONG TERM...Pojorlie
AVIATION...Pojorlie is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.