Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 250756

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
156 AM MDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Saturday)
Issued at 154 AM MDT Sun Jun 25 2017

A 90 kt jet is moving through northwest flow over the
northern plains, as the upper ridge builds over the western CONUS.
Skies are partly cloudy across the area, and radar is picking up on
a line of echoes skirting the southwestern edge of the CWA. Not
confident anything is reaching the ground, as low levels are pretty
dry. Surface map shows calm to light/variable winds, with
temperatures falling into the 40s.

Today will be warm and mainly dry, with highs generally in the 70s.
Convective models are hinting at a few showers/storms popping up
across northwestern/central SD this afternoon, which is supported by
some weak instability and mid-level moisture. Have added some slight
chance PoPs. Another surface high will slide south into the Dakotas
tonight. With light easterly winds and clear skies, low temps will
dip into the 40s on the plains and the 30s in the Hills.

Upper ridge will continue shifting over the central states Monday,
and return flow will set up as the surface high slides to the
southeast. The warming trend will continue, with highs in the 70s to
lower 80s. The pressure gradient will tighten overnight between the
exiting high and incoming low, and southerly winds will become
breezy. Lows will stay in the 60s.

Continued tight pressure gradient will produce gusty southerly winds
mainly across central SD on Tuesday. Warm and moist air will advect
into the region, with temperatures near 90 and dew points in the mid
to upper 50s. By the afternoon, models are showing 1500-2000 J/kg
MLCAPE across much of western SD, ahead of an incoming
shortwave/cold front. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop in the afternoon, and with 0-6 km bulk shear of 30-40 kts,
severe storms will be possible. The activity will shift into eastern
SD Tuesday evening and overnight.

Several shortwaves crossing the region will keep weather active
through the week. Temperatures will be in the 70s and 80s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued At 949 PM MDT Sat Jun 24 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the period.




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