Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
FXUS65 KABQ 010010 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
610 PM MDT Sun Apr 30 2017
00Z TAF CYCLE
Weather conditions are starting to settle in the wake of the
departing low pressure system. Winds are still gusty from the
northwest, but these should largely wane through the evening. Some
cirrus clouds will drift over portions of New Mexico from northwest,
but otherwise a clearing trend is expected. Forecast models are not
advertising any fog or low cloud development early into Monday
morning, as temperatures are forecast to be a bit warmer. However, it
seems prudent to mention some prospects for very localized fog
development be in the Moreno valley near KAXX. Breezy conditions
will redevelop into Monday afternoon.
.PREV DISCUSSION...237 PM MDT Sun Apr 30 2017...
A warm-up is underway with plenty of sunshine today as the powerful
upper level low pressure system that brought rain and snow to New
Mexico Friday and Saturday pulls east away from the state. The
warming trend will continue through Tuesday, with all but the
Northeast Plains returning to near normal daytime temperatures. A
backdoor cold front will slide down the Eastern Plains late Tuesday
into Wednesday and bring cooler temperatures and a brief shot at
precipitation, focusing over the northeast quarter Tuesday night. The
cool down behind the front will last a day, then we`ll be right back
into a warming trend that will last into Saturday with daytime
temperatures going above normal areawide as a ridge of high pressure
moves overhead. Chances for showers and storms will enter the
forecast next weekend, but more significant chances may be delayed
until the week of May 8th.
Brisk northwest winds prevail on the backside of the departing upper
level low, with plenty of sunshine allowing for 10 to 15 degrees of
warming today though temperatures remain well below normal. Another
cold night is on tap, with lows below normal across most of the area.
With some melting snow today and near-ideal radiational cooling
tonight areas of fog/freezing fog are possible, especially in
mountain valleys like the Moreno Valley.
A warming trend is underway and will send daytime temperatures back
to near or above normal by Tuesday, except for the Northeast Plains
where a backdoor cold front will hold temps below normal. The
backdoor front will fly down the Eastern Plains Tuesday night, with
precipitation chances focusing over the northeast quarter as a
shortwave trough ejects southeast out of Colorado into the plains.
Cooler conditions Wednesday will be followed by a renewed warming
trend that will send temperatures above normal areawide by Fri/Sat.
Latest medium range model solutions continue to show a large and
potent cutoff low over the southwest U.S. or offshore of Southern
California late next weekend and into the following week. The GFS
seems to be the most inconsistent from run-to-run on the placement of
the upper low, while the ECMWF has been depicting the upper low
offshore. However, the 12z operational runs of both models have
trended further west, so we have added a slight chance mention of
showers and storms for Sat/Sun across portions of the forecast area.
This could trend either way, but the Eastern Plains seem the most
likely candidate for storms beginning the week of May 8th as low
level moisture is drawn northwestward toward the circulation.
Breezy to windy NW winds will persist across the state the remainder
of the afternoon before tapering off tonight as wrap around energy
from the exiting low shifts eastward. Overnight lows will be a few
degrees warmer than previous, but areas along and north of the I-40
corridor will see freezing to near freezing lows again tonight.
Overnight recoveries will be good to excellent central and east with
fair recoveries south and west.
The warm and mostly dry trend will prevail throughout the week,
except for a brief cooling period in the eastern plains Wed because
of a back door cold front. Temperatures will remain below normal
through Thurs before creeping above normal Fri and Sat.
Dominant NW flow aloft will persist through Tues with occasional
aftn breezes with a weak shortwave trough passing over NM Monday.
This will enhance breezes across the state, but otherwise little
weather impacts are expected. A more potent upper level shortwave
will clip NE NM Tues night into Wed, developing a back door cold
front that will sweep into the eastern plains Tues night. The front
will then arrive along the central mtn chain Wed morning, creating a
brief period of gap winds along the central mtns. Increasing sfc
moisture behind the front with additional help from upslope flow will
aid in development of shower and thunderstorm chances along and east
of the central mtn chain Tues night into Wed aftn. Temperatures will
cool 10-15 degrees central and east Wed.
Upper level ridging will build over the Great Basin the latter half
of the week. The dry and warm trend will ramp up as temperatures
reach above normal by Friday. Anticipate lower humidities as Min RH
values fall in the mid to low teens this week. Our next chance for
unsettled weather will occur Sunday into early next week as a potent
Pacific low dives across the Great Basin.
Vent rates will be good the rest of the week except across the
extreme NE Plains Tues, the east slopes of the Sangre De Cristos
Wed, and the middle RGV/eastern plains Thurs.