Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 031134 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
534 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS MORNING...WITH A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. MVFR IMPACTS IN THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
TODAY...WITH SHORT-LIVED IFR POSSIBLE. TERMINALS MOST LIKELY TO BE
IMPACTED ARE KLVS...KSAF AND KABQ. ANOTHER LATE ROUND POSSIBLE AT
KTCC FRIDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...341 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NEW
MEXICO TODAY AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINES WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY GET GOING EARLIER
THAN IS TYPICAL WITH A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE.
A ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR THE
FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY AND SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS WHERE
STABLE CONDITIONS WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS HARD TO COME BY. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO GET THE EASTERN PLAINS BACK INTO THE ACT
MONDAY. THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BEFORE DRIER AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST POSSIBLE LIMITS THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS CONTINUES EARLY
THIS MORNING. HI RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGESTING THIS CONVECTION WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. LAST COUPLE RUNS OF
THE NAM12 INDICATING THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
GET GOING EARLY TODAY...DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS OVER SW AND
CENTRAL AREAS. AREAS WHERE CONVECTION DEVELOPS EARLY AND TEMPS
COOL ACCORDINGLY...AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE TOUGH TO COME BY.
ELSEWHERE...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS IS ON TAP...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY. DUAL
POL STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES FROM KABX AND KFDX FROM
THURSDAY INDICATING A CLASSIC FOOTPRINT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND A SIMILAR SET UP IS EXPECTED TODAY.

MAIN CHANGE FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY WILL BE THE STABILIZATION OF
THE EASTERN PLAINS. OTHERWISE...MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT ANOTHER HEALTHY ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION IS
IN STORE FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WWD. SIMILAR SET UP
ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS TO PROPAGATE
EWD OVER THE ERN PLAINS SUNDAY EVENING.

NAM AND GFS CONTINUE WITH THE TREND OF SPEEDING UP AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FOR MONDAY...AND WITH 30-35KTS OF JET
LEVEL FLOW...A FEW STORMS OVER THE NE HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS COULD
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR NE NM WILL COOL TO WELL BELOW AVERAGE MONDAY WITH
HIGHS ELSEWHERE COOLING MARKEDLY ON TUESDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
KEEP THINGS ACTIVE WEDNESDAY AND ATTEMPT TO SCOUR OUT MOISTURE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. GFS MORE BULLISH WITH THE DRY AIR AHEAD OF A
CLOSED LOW OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST MOVING INTO NM FROM
THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS A WEAK SLY
MOISTURE PLUME IN PLACE OVER NM.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM REGIME CONTINUES WITH ABOVE
NORMAL PWATS AND WEAK STEERING FLOW LEADING TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THANKS TO A
BACKDOOR FRONT WHICH WILL RECHARGE MOISTURE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD
THANKS TO ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND RAIN-COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND A MIXED-BAG OF
SUN/CLOUDS/RAIN WILL BRING VARIABLE VENT RATES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...WHICH LOOK TO BE GOOD/EXCELLENT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
AND POOR TO FAIR ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS.

THE UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO TAKE UP RESIDENCE OVER SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH MAY ALLOW
FOR DRIER AIR TO MOVE OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AS THE WESTERLIES
MAKE A BRIEF RETURN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP BACK UP LATE NEXT
WEEK TO NEAR NORMAL AS THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

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&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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