Area Forecast Discussion
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FXAK67 PAJK 192336
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
236 PM AKST Sun Feb 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...The latest satellite imagery shows most of the
forecast area under mostly clear skies. There are some lingering
clouds over Yakutat along with some clouds spilling over the
mountains near Skagway and Haines. The winds across the area are
also generally on the light side with not much of a pressure
gradient.

These conditions will persist into Monday with dry conditions and
sunny skies for most of Southeast Alaska. There will be some
clouds that will move in over the far southern areas late tonight
and Monday from increased south flow at the mid levels to advect
in some moisture.

Temperatures will fall into the 20s over the south and teens in
the north with some areas away from the water that will dip into
the single digits. As the night time inversion breaks through
Monday temps will rebound into the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Overall there were minor changes done to the forecast and used
the 12z nam for any changes that were made. There is above average
forecaster confidence in the short term forecast.

.LONG TERM...Only minor changes to the forecast were made through
late week. Main adjustment was to shift low track a little further
S for Wed with models trending that way. Used 12z EC to handle
this system as it represented a trend southward but not too much
of a shift S like the GFS/NAM. Other than that, Minimal changes
were made to the forecast.

Still looks like a few rain and snow showers will affect the area
especially Tue and Tue night as a weak shortwave aloft moves
through. Best threat for the showers will be over the gulf and
along the outer coast.

With southward shift of Wed low, precip threat appears to be
lessened for the inner channels especially over the N. The outer
coast may still get into some rain and snow showers but bulk of
them will remain over the gulf during Wed into Wed night.

Upper ridge sharpens up enough for a drier period for much of the
area for Thu and Fri. Another shortwave trof will move through the
ridge into the NE gulf Fri night and across SE AK Sat, bringing
increase precip threat to the area. System looks warmer so think
much of the precip will be rain, but more E and N areas could see
some snow as well. Given fast movement of system would not expect
any significant snowfall at lower elevations however.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&

$$

ABJ/RWT

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