Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 300912
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
312 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...

A PERSISTENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL...AND DICTATE OUR WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK SOUTH A BIT AGAIN...SO
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE QUITE LIMITED TODAY AND CONFINED
PRIMARILY TO THE ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTH RANGE. SOME OF THAT MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL SNEAK BACK NORTH THURSDAY FOR A LITTLE WIDER
COVERAGE WITH THE CRAZIES AND PERHAPS THE BIG HORNS SEEING SOME
ISOLATED ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND THE
SEASONAL NORM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD THIS MORNING. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMP WARM ACROSS THE REGION.

THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN...BEGINNING FRI AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD TO WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...AS SHORTWAVE RIDE THROUGH THE
RIDGE AND INTERACT WITH MONSOONAL FLOW THAT CONTINUES TO STREAM
INTO THE REGION . UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVES
THROUGH THE REGION MAKE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT BEST AREA OF IMPACT
OR TIMING...RESULTING IN MORE BROADBRUSH TYPE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED POPS. AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO FLATTEN...POTENTIAL
CONTINUES TO IMPROVE FOR WEATHER DEVELOPMENT...SO HAVE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS IN PLACE FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD...BUT
COOLER TEMPS MAY BE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH INCREASED MONSOONAL
MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER. AAG

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...ALTHOUGH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY. AAG


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 089 061/091 061/091 062/089 062/088 061/088 063/085
    0/U 01/U    02/T    22/T    22/T    23/T    32/T
LVM 087 055/089 056/091 055/087 054/086 055/084 056/084
    1/U 12/T    12/T    22/T    22/T    23/T    33/T
HDN 091 057/093 058/093 060/091 060/090 059/090 063/086
    0/U 00/U    01/U    22/T    22/T    23/T    33/T
MLS 090 061/093 062/093 063/093 063/090 062/089 065/085
    0/U 00/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    12/T    22/T
4BQ 088 058/091 059/092 061/092 061/090 061/089 063/085
    0/U 00/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    23/T    33/T
BHK 086 055/089 056/089 058/090 058/088 057/086 061/083
    0/U 00/U    01/U    12/T    22/T    12/T    23/T
SHR 086 054/088 055/089 056/087 055/087 056/086 059/083
    0/U 01/U    02/T    22/T    23/T    33/T    33/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


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