Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 231622
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1222 PM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure continues to dominate the weather until late
tonight. Low pressure moves in from the west on Monday and
tracks south of the area. High pressure builds in Wednesday
before the next front approaches Thursday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1220 pm update... Sunny with cooler than seasonable
temperatures and low humidity this afternoon. Scattered fair
weather cu have formed...mostly in northern zones...and bumped
up sky cover with this update. A sea breeze will develop along
the coast this afternoon after highs reach into the 70s. Another
cool night is in store tonight with lows approaching records
again. For Monday, 12Z guidance continues the trend to lower
pops as the low is expected to move south of the high.

Prev discussion blo...
Hipres conts to sit south of James Bay and supply nwrly flow to
CWA tonight. Dwpts hv dipped into the mid- 30s in nrn Aroostook
with current temps in the 40s. Notoriously colder vlys acrs the
north wl lkly see temps dip into the 30s just bfr daybreak
under clr skies and decoupled winds. High thin cirrus wl
continue to stream acrs srn zones and lkly thicken up in the
aftn as moisture streams ahd of H5 trof digging into the central
Great Lks.

Maxes tda acrs the north likely to be a few degrees warmer than yda
while Downeast likely to be cooler. Given wk pressure gradient acrs
Downeast, sea breeze looks likely to kick in drg the aftn. Sfc high
pressure wl build twd the Canadian Maritimes twd the end of the near
term pd.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Rainy conditions are expected this term, especially Downeast.
Low pressure will move to our south on Monday, followed by the
upper trough on Tuesday. Models have trended downward with QPF
amounts for these systems. This is likely due to the amount of
dry air that will need to be overcome, particularly in the north
where high pressure will have the strongest hold. Expect that
much of Aroostook County will remain dry a good part of the day
on Monday owing to the high; the bulk of any precipitation will
occur Monday evening into early Tuesday morning. Any lingering
rain will be more showery in nature thereafter, with a drying
trend through the day. Have kept with low chance PoPs across the
north during this time frame, along with likely PoPs Downeast
and in the greater Bangor area, but QPF has been cut back to
match the latest guidance. Daytime highs will remain on the
cooler side, generally in the upper 60s to lower 70s, while
Monday night will see temperatures in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The middle of the week is looking good with high pressure to
build across the region. We`ll see a return to summer-like temps
as Wednesday tops out around 80 in most spots. The threat for
showers and thunderstorms returns on Thursday and Thursday night
as a cold front crosses the region. The forecast becomes more
uncertain thereafter. The GFS, and to a lesser extent the
Canadian, build high pressure right back over New England, with
mainly dry weather for Friday and Saturday, except for a few
showers Downeast Friday afternoon. Meanwhile, the ECMWF is much
more extreme, deepening the upper trough and bringing a 995mb
low across central New England Friday into Saturday. This would
mean a cool, wet, and windy weekend. Have gone with chance PoPs
for this time frame owing to the uncertainty, and stayed close
to a model blend for all other parameters.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR next 24 hours with high cirrus likely drifting
thru srn terminals and potential for few-sct VFR cumulus moving
in from the north after 15z this morning. Winds out of the NW
from 3-8kts drg the day will become lgt/vrb after 00z with ridge
axis building in.

SHORT TERM: VFR conditions Monday morning will gradually give
way to MVFR in rain at BGR and BHB Monday afternoon and evening.
These conditions will persist through a good part of the night,
then gradual improvement to VFR after 12z Tue. The other sites
are expected to remain VFR through the period. Dry weather will
persist 00z Wed to 12z Thu, then MVFR will become more likely as
a cold frontal passage brings the threat for showers and
thunderstorms.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through
the period. Have lowered WNA guidance by a foot as it has been
running too high as of late.

SHORT TERM: No headlines are anticipated into early next week as both
winds and waves will remain below Small Craft conditions.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$

Near Term...Farrar/MCW
Short Term...Hastings
Long Term...Hastings
Aviation...Farrar/MCW/Hastings
Marine...Farrar/MCW/Hastings



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