Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 191217
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
817 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH
PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
815 AM UPDATE...HAVE MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS FOR
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. ALSO MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO TODAY`S HIGH
TEMPS. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER
CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAIN CHALLENGES WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY AND
TEMPERATURES.

LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED SOME LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MAINE W/SOME OF THIS FALLING AS RAIN/SNOW. THE SNOW WAS
FALLING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS PER THE FVE METAR. FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST, BASICALLY CLOUDS SKIES W/SOME FLURRIES OR
SPRINKLES BEING REPORTED. TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING IN THE LOW TO
MID 30S ACROSS THE CWA. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES W/ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO SET OFF SOME MORE
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON. ATTM, ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTH AND WEST AND MAINLY ON GRASSY
SURFACES OF UP TO 1/2 INCH. QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 0.10".
ONE THING TO NOTE IS THAT THE AIRMASS COULD DESTABILIZE LATER THIS
MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS SHOWING STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND RH
GREATER THAN 80% FROM 925-750MBS. SB CAPES ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 50 J/KG TAKING AN AVERAGE OF THE 2 SOUNDINGS BY 18Z(2PM).
THEREFORE, SOME BRIEF HEAVIER RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS COULD
OCCUR W/THE FRONT. THE POSSIBILITY OF SLEET OR EVEN GRAUPEL IN
THOSE HEAVIER BANDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIT EARLY TODAY AS
STRONG CA IS FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT. DECIDED ON A BLEND OF THE
NAM12 AND RIC INTO TODAY SHOWING THAT COOL DOWN. WINDS WILL ALSO
PICK UP W/A SHIFT TO THE WNW BEHIND THE FRONT. DECIDED TO BOOST
WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR QUICKLY TONIGHT AS THE FRONT EXITS
INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. WINDS WILL DROP OFF AFTER 06Z(2AM) AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS IN FROM CANADA. A RATHER COLD NIGHT AS OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN BORDER. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST, OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 20S BY EARLY EASTER SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S NORTH AND LOW TO MID 50S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S.
A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MOVES NORTHEAST PUSHING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BACK TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE LATER
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
REGION LATER TUESDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY MOVE UP ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT EXITS THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN POSSIBLY
CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL APPROACH BY
LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: FR/MFR ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS THIS MORNING
W/SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND FOG. ELSEWHERE, VFR W/A BRIEF MFR THIS
MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO THE NORTHERN TERMINALS LATER
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON W/A TEMPO PERIOD OF FR IN
HEAVIER SQUALLS. ACROSS KB GR AND KABOB, EXPECTING FR W/THE
POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MFR RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. IMPROVEMENT TO FR FOR ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS LATE
TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THERE COULD BE A SURGE TO SAC ESPECIALLY IN WIND GUSTS
BY THE EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER ZONES. DECIDED TO GO
W/GUSTS TO 25+KITS TONIGHT W/CA HITTING THE WATERS AND A GRADIENT
HOLDING ON AT LEAST THROUGH 2 AM. AT TM, HELD OFF ON THE SAC
HEADLINE AND WILL ASSESS THIS LATER THIS MORNING. COORDINATED THIS
W/GYX THIS MORNING.


SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE STILL REMAINS IN ON THE ST. JOHN FROM GRAND ISLE TO VAN BUREN
W/OPEN WATER ON EITHER END OF THE JAM PER THE LAW ENFORCMENT PER
PHONE CALL THIS MORNING AT 620 AM. NO ISSUES REPORTED ATTM FROM
THE LAW ENFORCEMENT OR EMA AUTHORITIES. FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE
PENOBSCOT AND MATTAWAMKEAG RIVERS, LEVELS ARE LEVELING OFF AND NOW
FALLING BACK MAINLY ON THE PENOBSCOT. THE MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER IS
FLUCTUATING RIGHT AT 16.2 FT. SOME MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION TODAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA
HYDROLOGY...HEWITT







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