Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 270658
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
258 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE ON
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ONTO THE EAST COAST
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
TODAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. HAVE BLENDED THE NAM...GFS AND
ECMWF FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND
FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT. COLDER AIR MASS TO THE WEST WILL
MOVE IN ALONG WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OUR FOCUS ON SATURDAY WILL BE ON A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF
THE GULF OF MAINE. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS CARRYING THIS STORM
SYSTEM WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER, AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING NORTHWEST FROM THE LOW MAY RESULT IN SOME NORLUN
CONVERGENCE ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN DOWNEAST AREAS WHICH MAY BRING
A PERIOD OF SNOW EARLY SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND COLD CONDITIONS. SUNDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OF THE AREA
BRINGS A RETURN WEST WIND, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. AFTER A CHILLY MORNING, THE BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOOST
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO QUEBEC WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTH WINDS
AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS SUNDAY NIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE IS TRACKING
THIS LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH. THICKNESSES INDICATE IT WILL BE JUST
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS THIS LOW TRACKS
NORTH. HOWEVER, WITH A TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH, ONLY SOME
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH AMOUNTS PROBABLY LESS THAN
AN INCH ACROSS THE AREA. COLD AIR SURGES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY. THE DAY WILL BE BRIGHT AND SUNNY WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST
WIND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW THEN APPROACHING LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY HAS A CHANCE FOR BRINGING A BIT OF SNOW TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE
TO VFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP TO IFR IN
LOWER CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR NORTH. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
LIKELY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM WILL BE SOUTHERLY LONG PERIOD WAVES GENERATED
TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE BUILDINT TO 6-7 FEET/9-10
SECONDS. WILL KEEP CURRENT SCA TIMING.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING
FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT. WINDS MAY
REACH SCA IN GUSTS AGAIN ON MONDAY. SEAS MAY ALSO BUILD OVER 7 FT
IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTH WINDS ON MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...MIGNONE/BLOOMER
MARINE...MIGNONE/BLOOMER


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