Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000
FXUS61 KCAR 230804
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
404 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN MAINE. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES THIS AFTERNOON. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST NEXT WEEK BRINGING UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER
LOW PULLS TO THE EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS FROM THE SOUTH TODAY WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
AS A RATHER TIGHT GRADIENT DEVELOPS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
WILL RESULT IN A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE WITH WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH
AS 35 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH AND MID TO
UPPER 50S CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST.

EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A
WEAK SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY BRING AN ISOLATED
SHOWER TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MAJOR WARM-UP EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM. 500H HEIGHTS ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE RISE NEARLY 200 DAM DURING THIS TIME AS A STRONG SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE
LOW LEVELS WARM SIGNIFICANTLY WITH 925 MB TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE
FROM AROUND +7C AT 12Z SUN TO +15C BY 00Z TUE. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA SUN MORNING WITH THE CHANCE OF A
SHOWER IN A FEW SPOTS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE. DRIER AIR
WORKS IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES
WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS THE CROWN
OF MAINE TO THE LOW 70S FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST. IT WILL BE COOLER
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. EVEN WARMER MEMORIAL DAY WITH HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 70S FROM INTERIOR DOWNEAST NORTH TO THE ST JOHN
VALLEY. A FEW SPOTS MAY COME CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES...AND WILL BUMP
UP THE HIGHS FOR MOST INLAND AREAS BY A FEW DEGREES BASED ON THE
WARMTH OF THE AIR MASS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AND MORE TYPICAL OF MID SUMMER. A STRONG SUB-TROPICAL/BERMUDA
HIGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL BUILD NORTH AND IS EXPECTED
TO BE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE WEEK. THE
RIDGE WHICH INITIALLY BUILDS NORTH WILL TAKE ON A MORE WEST TO
EAST ORIENTATION LATE IN THE WEEK WITH THE POLAR JET TO BE
DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. 500H HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE SOME 120 DAM ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND ON THE
ORDER OF 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL MEAN
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S MOST DAYS FROM INLAND DOWNEAST
NORTH TO THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY. LOW TEMPS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN
MAINE MAY END UP NEAR RECORD WARM LEVELS. A COUPLE OF SFC LOWS
TRACK TO THE NORTH AND MAY TOUGH OFF A FEW SHOWERS AT TIMES...MAINLY
TUE MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH AND AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY WED INTO
WED NIGHT AND AGAIN FRI...BUT MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN-FREE
AND WARM.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BRIEF MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS THROUGH 12Z KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL
TERMINALS OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY.

SHORT TERM: PREDOMINATELY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS SUN MORNING AT
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...AND AGAIN TUE INTO WED AS MORE SHOWERS
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUN INTO SUN
EVENING.  SEAS MAY BUILD ENOUGH WITH PERSISTENT S/SW FLOW THAT A SCA
MAYBE REQUIRED AGAIN BY TUE AFTERNOON INTO WED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WEST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
TODAY WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS. AFTER
COORDINATING WITH WFO GYX WILL BE UPGRADING THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING TODAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ002-005-006-
     010-011-031-032.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB
FIRE WEATHER...DUDA


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