Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000
FXUS61 KCAR 020707
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
307 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LOW VISIBLE ON THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE CHANNEL JUST
EAST OF HUDSON BAY THIS MORNING WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT E/NE AND
INTO LABRADOR THROUGH SAT. THIS WILL FLATTEN OUT THE TOP OF AN
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE IN THE NW ATLANTIC. SW FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE REGION WITH LOW PRES
ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ALOFT. WEAK AND ILL
DEFINED SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW COMBINED WITH SFC HEATING AND
PRECIPITABLE H20 OF AROUND 1.25" WILL PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE GFS
HAS VERY WEAK SBCAPE AND MUCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 200-400 J/KG
ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS SOMEWHAT MORE ROBUST. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE DAY CREWS ASSESSMENT WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE CWA. THE
MODELS ALL HAVE A WEAK SFC LOW OR INVERTED SFC TROUGH PASSING
THROUGH OR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT. THE 12Z ECMWF WAS THE DEEPEST AND FURTHEST NW WITH THE
LOW AND WOULD BRING SOME STEADIER RAIN TO PARTS OF DOWNEAST MAINE
TONIGHT. THE 00Z ECMWF BACKED AWAY FROM THIS SOLUTION AND IS NOW
MORE IN LINE WITH THE OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS AND MODEL
ENSEMBLES. THINKING IS THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. LIKE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MAINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO RIDE ALONG THE FLOW. MOST
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SHOWERS TO START OFF SUNDAY AS
DISTURBANCE MOVES ALONG A OFF SHORE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE PRIMARILY OFF SHORE AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE
FA. THEN AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW MORE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE C TO
NW PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MONDAY MUCH OF
THE SAME WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES TO GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
PRECIP. BETTER SUPPORT APPROACHES THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING WEST.
THIS WILL BRING A INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP MUCH OF
THE REGION UNSETTLED THROUGH THURSDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. MODELS ARE DIFFERENT WITH RESPECT TO UPPER LEVEL LOW FRIDAY
WHICH COULD BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER TO PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS STILL LOW AT THIS POINT.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR TO VLIFR IN AREAS OF STRATUS/FOG WILL GIVE WAY TO
MOSTLY VFR BY MID-LATE MORNING.  MVFR POSSIBLE IN/NEAR ANY
-SHRA/-TSRA THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.
CONDITIONS MAY ONCE AGAIN LOWER TO IFR TONIGHT AT THE DOWNEAST
TERMINALS IN AREAS OF STRATUS/FOG.

SHORT TERM: LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH FOG PARTICULARLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ESPECIALLY WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. BEST SHOT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY WITH APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

SHORT TERM: NO SCA EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS AND SEAS
STAYING BELOW THRESHOLDS. AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE WATERS WILL
CONTINUES TO BE POSSIBLE UNDER PERSISTENT S TO SW FLOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...THE JULY 2014 CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
MAINE IS NOW AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS HEADLINES ON OUR WEB PAGE AT:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/CAR OR AT PWMCLMCAR OR CXUS51 KCAR.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...JORDAN
LONG TERM...JORDAN
AVIATION...CB/JORDAN
MARINE...CB/JORDAN
CLIMATE...CB







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