Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 211509
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1009 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A LARGE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH TUESDAY NIGHT THEN TRACK TO OUR
WEST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE...PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS ENDED W/MAINLY CLOUDY
CONDITION. CLOUDS WILL HANG ON THE STRONG INVERSION IN PLACE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS NEEDED ADJUSTMENT TO BRING THEM UP
W/SOME WEAK WAA OCCURRING PER THE LATEST 12Z UA. ADJUSTED THE
AFTERNOON MAXES A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD. NORLUN TYPE SETUP
LOOKS TO BE IN ORDER W/LOW WELL S OF THE CWA AND INVERTED TROF
SETTING UP. ADJUSTED THE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SETUP FOLLOWING
THE MESOSCALE NAM AND RAP GUIDANCE. THIS FEATURE WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW OR PERHAPS SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE.
WILL BE MONITORING THIS SITUATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
CLOUDY SKIES AND STEADY TO GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES. THE
VERY SHALLOW COLUMN OF MOISTURE WILL TOP OUT NEAR H900 IN NORTHERN
ZONES AND UP TO H850 NEAR THE COAST. INSTABILITY WITHIN THE COLUMN
WILL PRODUCE PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE ONLY SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURE
RESOLVED BY NWP WILL BE A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH IN CONCERT WITH AN
UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. AFFECTS FROM THIS
SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE
MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT TO GENERATE MEASURABLE
PRECIP IN SOUTHERN HANCOCK COUNTY...MOSTLY IN THE OUTER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA MONDAY. HOWEVER, A STRONG
LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL LIKELY HOLD THE LOW STRATUS CLOUDS IN PLACE
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST INTO THE
MARITIMES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PUSHING ONSHORE JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE HIGH MAY BRING SOME
PATCHY LIGHT SNOW INLAND, AND RAIN ALONG THE COAST, TO SOUTHWESTERN
PARTS OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. OTHERWISE, MOST OF
THE AREA WILL JUST REMAIN OVERCAST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OUR FOCUS GOING INTO THE MIDWEEK PERIOD WILL BE ON A LARGE AND
COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM LIFTING THROUGH THE MIDWEST, WELL TO OUR WEST.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY BEGIN TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN ACROSS THE AREA, BUT SOME RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR MAY STILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS SOME NORTHERN SITES
SO WILL MENTION CHC FREEZING RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER THE NORTH.
RAIN WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY WEDNESDAY AS THE STORM CENTER LIFTS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL BE, BUT THE
BEST CHANCE OF HAVING SOME STRONG WINDS WILL BE ALONG DOWNEAST
AREAS, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST, LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. RAIN AND WIND WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE LOW LIFTS TO OUR WEST. THE LOW WILL THEN PULL AN
OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING SOME
DRYING. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY, POSSIBLY
SUPPORTING A SMALL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE, WILL THEN BRING A CHANCE
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW NORTH AND SOME SHOWERS DOWNEAST ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT PREDOMINATELY MVFR CIGS FOR ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM:
IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A DECK OF
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. IFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN
PERSIST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH RAIN AND WIND AND
POSSIBLY SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS.
CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE LATE THURSDAY FOLLOWING A FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. NO ADVISORIES ARE ANTICIPATED.

SHORT TERM:
LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE MARITIMES. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG STORM LIFTS
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA, LIKELY REQUIRING A GALE OR A STORM WARNING
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY ON
THURSDAY FOLLOWING A FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT/MCW
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...HEWITT/MCW/BLOOMER
MARINE...HEWITT/MCW/BLOOMER


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