Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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944
FXUS61 KCAR 091041
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
541 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...FOLLOWED
BY VERY COLD AIR FOR THE REGION AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
530 AM UPDATE: LATEST RADAR REF IMAGERY SHOWS A LITTLE BIT OF
BANDING OVR NE PTNS OF THE FA THIS HR...AND LIKELY WE ARE NEAR
HE HEIGHT OF THIS EVENT OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA...WITH LATEST HRRR
HRLY SIM RADAR OUTPUT SHOWING A GRADUAL DECLINE IN REF OVR THIS
PTN OF THE FA. FURTHER S...DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA HAVE BEEN IN A
RELATIVE BREAK IN REF...WITH NE REGIONAL RADAR INDICATING A WEAKER
BAND OF SN OVR SW ME LIFTING INTO SRN PTNS OF THE FA...SO WE WILL
KEEP THE ADV GOING HERE FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...FCST HRLY TEMPS INTO
THE LATE MORN WERE MODIFIED SLIGHTLY BASED ON OBSVD TEMPS AT 5 AM.

ORGNL DISC: KEPT WNTR WX ADV HDLNS THE SAME FROM LAST UPDATE.
RADAR CONTS TO SHOW SNOW ROTATING SLOWLY SE TO NW INTO NRN
ME...WITH THE NW LAST TO GET UNDER THE SN CANOPY. MOST MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOW THE BEST LIFT FOR THE HIGHEST SN RATES (UP TO 0.5 TO
1 INCH PER HR) BETWEEN NOW AND 12Z...BEFORE THE LIFT WEAKENS
ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS MORN...RESULTING IN LESSER SN RATES.
OTHERWISE...THE BACK EDGE OF STEADY SN WILL LIFT NWRD FROM
DOWNEAST AREAS BEGINNING IN THE LATE MORN INTO MIDDAY
HRS...REACHING THE ST JOHN VLY BY ERLY EVE. GREATEST SNFL TOTALS
STILL LOOK TO BE OVR THE FAR SE WITH FCST TOTAL QPF AOA 0.60
INCHES...WHERE A FEW LCTNS IN SE WASHINGTON COUNTY COULD GET UP TO
9 INCHES OR SO. WITH LESSER FCST QPF XPCTD TO THE NW...SN TOTALS
WILL BE PROGRESSIVELY LESS IN THIS DIRECTION WITH A FEW LCTNS IN
THE NW AND XTRM NE GETTING PERHAPS AS LITTLE AS 3 INCHES.

WITH CONTD NE LLVL WINDS AND UPPER TROF CONDITIONS PERSISTING
ALF... SKIES WILL REMAIN CLDY WITH SCT SN SHWRS TNGT...SPCLY
ACROSS THE N. SUBSEQUENTLY...WITH NO ADVCN OF COLDER AIR SLATED
THRU TNGT... NEAR NORMAL HI TEMPS XPCTD OR THIS AFTN WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY ABV NORMAL OVRNGT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SOMEWHAT AMORPHOUS WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST CONUS,
WITH SMALL SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND IT FROM TIME TO TIME. THESE
SORTS OF WAVES AND THEIR ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOWS ARE
NOTORIOUSLY HARD TO PREDICT IN TIMING, STRENGTH, AND PLACEMENT. AS
SUCH, EXPECT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS
MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AT THIS
TIME, THE STRONGEST FORCING LOOKS TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR SOUTH,
THOUGH THE LATEST GFS RUN HAS ONE WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
RIGHT ALONG THE MAINE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVING INTO
THE BAY OF FUNDY ON THURSDAY. THIS SOLUTION WOULD BRING SNOW TO
THE REGION, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST. THERE DOES SEEM TO BE SOME
SUPPORT FOR THIS FROM THE SREF AND ECMWF, THOUGH BOTH HAVE A
WEAKER AND LESS ORGANIZED SYSTEM. HAVE STAYED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
OVER OUR SOUTHERN AREAS AS A RESULT OF THE DISCREPANCIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR EARLY FEBRUARY, WITH
WEDNESDAY A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE TURN TO MUCH
COLDER CONDITIONS. AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OVER THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 5 TO 15 RANGE, WHILE
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE -10 TO 5. SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST PERIOD AS EVERYONE IS EXPECTED
TO DROP BELOW ZERO, AND SOME OF THE COLD LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH
WOODS WILL PLUMMET TO AROUND -15. THE LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
IS INDICATING THERE MAY BE A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, WITH PERHAPS A SECONDARY COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING
SOMEWHERE ALONG THE MAINE COAST. THIS COULD BRING SOME SNOW TO THE
REGION AT THE END OF THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST. A STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH WILL SLOWLY SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, BUT SOME MODERATION IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS THE RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS EAST, PLACING US IN WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WITH STEADY SNFL ACROSS THE TAF SITES
ERLY THIS MORN WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR FROM S TO N ACROSS THE
REGION FROM LATE MORN DOWNEAST SITES TO ERLY EVE ACROSS NRN MOST
SITES. MVFR CLGS AND ATTMS...VSBYS WILL THEN CONT FOR ALL TAF
SITES OVRNGT.

SHORT TERM: PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP PREVAILING VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS AROUND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH NORTHERN AREAS THE
MOST LIKELY TO SEE VFR. SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS BANGOR AND DOWNEAST, AND CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO
IFR FROM TIME TO TIME IN THIS PRECIPITATION. FRIDAY WILL SEE
DECREASING CLOUDS AND ALL SITES VFR, BUT ANOTHER POTENTIAL STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING MVFR/IFR CHANCES ALONG WITH SNOW FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH CURRENT SCA HDLNS FOR OUR WATERS INTO
THIS MORN. WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BY AFTN...THE DAY SHIFT WILL
LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP THE SCA FOR THE INNER BAY/HARBOR MZ052 AND
RE-ISSUE FOR JUST HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR OUR OUTER MZS LATER TDY. ANY
LGT FZY SPY SHOULD END THIS AFTN AS SFC TEMPS WARM SOMEWHAT.
OTHERWISE...KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS THRU THE
NEAR TERM THIS UPDATE.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, PERHAPS FOR SEAS ONLY, WILL
LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM AS SEAS WILL BE 5
TO 7 FEET. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATE THURSDAY, AND EXPECT WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST ONCE THIS FEATURE GOES BY. AT THE
LEAST, EXPECT A HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, BUT WON`T RULE OUT A FEW HOURS
OF LOW-END GALES AS WELL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN EXTRA-TROPICAL STORM SURGE OF AROUND 1 FT IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS
MORN. HIGH TIDE IS AROUND 11 AM THIS MORN. TIDES ARE RUNNING NEAR
ASTRONOMICAL MAXIMUM. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SURGE AND WAVES OF 6 TO
10 FT...SOME SPLASH-OVER AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MEZ001>006-010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MEZ011-015>017-031-032.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MEZ029-030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...VJN/HASTINGS
MARINE...VJN/HASTINGS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...VJN



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