Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 300201
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1001 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE ON
FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE STATE ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
955 PM UPDATE...
QUIET NIGHT UNDERWAY. FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES.

THE CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS FOG. HAVE PATCHY FOG IN AREAWIDE DUE
TO LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE, BUT MAIN CONCERN FOR THE DENSER
FOG IS NEAR THE COAST. NOT EXPECTING THE FOG TO BE AS SIGNIFICANT
AS LAST NIGHT, BUT TIMING ITS ONSET RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND HOW
FAR INLAND IT SPREADS WILL BE TOUGH. VISIBILITY BEGINNING TO GO
DOWN PER OFFSHORE BUOY, EASTPORT IS DOWN TO 5SM VISIBILITY, AND
OTHER COASTAL SITES ARE NEARING 100 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY, SO
IT APPEARS THINGS ARE GETTING STARTED. EXPECT THE COAST TO BECOME
SOCKED IN, WITH FOG POSSIBLY MAKING IT UP TO BANGOR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE. STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. READ ON FOR
DETAILS...

TONIGHT WILL BE DRY AS ANY SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS
WILL QUICKLY DIE OUT AFTER SUNSET AND THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A
STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE BANGOR AREA WILL KEEP MUGGY AIR
DOWNEAST TONIGHT, WHILE CENTRAL/NORTHERN AREAS WILL SEE ANOTHER
NIGHT IN THE 50S.

FOR THURSDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA. A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW FROM WEST TO EAST, CROSSING
THE STATE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT AND ENTER NORTHWESTERN MAINE AROUND MID AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
THERE`S DIFFERING OPINIONS BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW MUCH SURFACE
CAPE WILL BE AROUND (500-1200 J/KG ON GFS VS 800-2000 J/KG ON NAM),
AT LEAST THEY AGREE THAT THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN
MAINE, ROUGHLY ALONG AND WEST OF ROUTE 11. HOWEVER, MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES LOOK GOOD EVERYWHERE, RUNNING AT 6-7 C/KM. SHEAR WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND BE 30-35 KT BY EVENING. WOULD EXPECT WINDS
TO BE THE BIGGEST THREAT AS FREEZING LEVELS WILL RISE TO 12+ KFT,
BUT CAN`T RULE OUT SOME LARGE HAIL, ESPECIALLY IN ANY STORMS THAT
MANAGE TO ROTATE. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A CONCERN AS WELL; PWATS WILL
APPROACH 2 INCHES AS MOISTURE INCREASES IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. CORFIDI VECTORS INDICATE THAT WE COULD SEE TRAINING CELLS
AND/OR SLOW FORWARD MOVEMENT, WHICH WOULD ENHANCE THE FLOOD THREAT.
THE SPC CONTINUES TO INCLUDE ALL OF OUR AREA EXCEPT FAR DOWNEAST IN
A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ENHANCED WORDING IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCTD TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE FCST
AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...ALONG WITH WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. ALTHOUGH BY THE EVENING HOURS...THE STORMS SHOULD BE
WEAKENING QUICKLY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE ON FRIDAY...THEN SPREAD FARTHER SOUTH AS
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PROPAGATES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGINGFROM
THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD AFFECTING LOCAL
WEATHER WILL BE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH...AND A CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NRN CANADA. UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH TROUGHS ABOUT 12 TO 18 HRS APART WILL TRANSIT
THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS TO THE AREA.
THE GFS/ECMWF SUN AND MON ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHWRS AND
POSSIBLE TSTMS DURING THE MRNG HRS. BY TUES THE TIMING BEGINS TO
DIFFER WITH THE GFS ABOUT 6 HRS AHEAD OF THE ECMWF.

LOADED SUPERBLEND THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOADED NAWAVE4 FOR SEAS IN
THE COASTAL WATERS...ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND
25 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. LOCAL IFR IN FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT, MAINLY ALONG THE
COAST. COASTAL OBSERVATIONS ARE NEARING 100 PERCENT RH, SO FOG
DEVELOPMENT SHOULDN`T BE TOO FAR AWAY. TOUGH CALL ON WHETHER
BANGOR WILL FOG IN. IF THEY DO, THINK THAT IT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND NOT BE TOO DENSE. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE WHERE THE STORMS OCCUR.

SHORT TERM: THERE IS SMALL RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
THE CWA EARLY THURSDAY EVENING...WHICH COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN...LARGE HAIL AND STRONG/GUSTY WINDS. ANY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
SHOULD WEAKEN TO BELOW SEVERE LEVELS BY MIDNIGHT. THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN HALF OF MAINE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS WILL PROBABLY ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
RESTRICTED VISIBILITY IN FOG TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.


SHORT TERM: THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL
MAINE ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE QUITE
WITH WAVES/CIGS STAYING BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOISY/HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...BERDES
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...FOISY/HASTINGS/BERDES
MARINE...FOISY/HASTINGS/BERDES



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