Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 241024
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
624 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST AWAY
FROM THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST LATER
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVE EAST ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER
LOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH SATURDAY NIGHT.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE: MOISTURE CONTS TO WRAP WNWWRD INTO THE AREA FROM NB AS
DEEP SLOW MOVG LOW PRES SYSTEM S OF NS CONTS TO AFFECT THE REGION.
THIS PRECIP IS MOSTLY RAIN S OF A KHUL-KMLT LINE W/ WET SNOW TO THE
N. RPTS OF 1-3 INCHES OF WET SNOW ACROSS THE N ATTM W/ A LITTLE
MORE PSBL INTO THE ERLY AM HRS BEFORE TEMPS WARM ENUF TO CHANGE
THINGS BACK TO MOSTLY JUST A COLD RAIN. HAVE TWEAKED TEMPS AND
ADJUSTED WX GRIDS A BIT TO BETTER REFLECT PRECIP TYPES. OTHERWISE
NO CHANGES ATTM...

STRONGLY NEG-TILTED UPPER TROF W/ A CLOSED UPPER LOW JUST SE OF
THE AREA CONTS TO SUPPORT DEEP SFC LOW PRES JUST S OF NS ATTM. AS
THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN CAPTURED BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...IT WILL
CONT TO BE SLOW TO PULL EWRD AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY W/ MOISTURE
CONTG TO BE PULLED NWWRD UP INTO SPCLY OUR ERN AREAS ALONG AN
INVERTED SFC TROF WHICH XTNDS NWWRD FROM THE SFC LOW ACROSS ERN
MAINE/WRN NB ATTM. AIRMASS IS COLD ENUF ALONG THE NRN AND NWRN
PORTIONS OF THE PRECIP SHIELD (NRN/NERN FA) THAT WET SNOW IS
OCCURRING AND COULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF WET SNOW ACROSS THE NRN
THIRD OF THE FA INTO THE ERLY AM HRS. OVERALL...MADE NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE EXISTING GRIDS W/ HYST POPS/QPF EXPECTED ACROSS
ERN/NERN AREAS TODAY W/ 1-3 INCHES OF WET SNOW ACROSS NRN AND
NWRN AREAS. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN LATER TODAY AND PULL
MOSTLY OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVE AS DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED W/ A SFC
RIDGE BEGINS TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
SLOW TO LEAVE HOWEVER SO EXPECT CLDS TO HANG AROUND THRU MUCH OF
TNGT ALL BUT SRN/SWRN AREAS OF OUR FA WHERE DOWNSLOPING NWRLY
WNDS SHOULD HELP TO DRY THINGS OUT A BIT QUICKER. NW WNDS WILL BE
QUITE BRISK SPCLY SRN/SWRN AREAS WHERE A FEW GUSTS TO NR 40 MPH
ARE PSBL. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BLO SEASONAL NORMS TODAY AND TNGT...

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY, SO EXPECT A
DRY DAY. ALTHOUGH THE DAY WILL START OUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH, THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT BY
LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL FOR
HIGHS, RANGING FROM AROUND 50 IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 50S SOUTH.

PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE A
BIT TRICKY AS THEY WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUD COVER
MOVES EAST. MODEL RH INDICATES THAT FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
MAINE WILL SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING DURING THE MID TO LATE
EVENING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF MORE QUICKLY
IN THESE AREAS THAN FURTHER SOUTH WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE
THICKER. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS ALSO INDICATING THAT DEWPOINTS
WILL BE IN THE 20S, SO SOME COOLING IS POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION. AS SUCH, CURRENT THINKING IS THAT NORTHERN AREAS
COULD SEE SOME WET SNOW MIX IN WITH THE RAIN AT THE START,
ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER, THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, SO EXPECT LITTLE
TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION.

FOR SATURDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST ALONG
THE SAINT LAWRENCE. MEANWHILE, A SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF
OF LONG ISLAND AND MOVE EASTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS, COVERING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY BE A QUARTER INCH OR
LESS. TEMPERATURES WILL MAX OUT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
AREAWIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT MUCH OF THE LONG TERM TO BE COOL AND DAMP AS THE REGION
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A COUPLE OF SLOW-MOVING UPPER
LOWS. SHOWERY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT RIGHT INTO
MONDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUT MODELS INDICATE THAT A CUT-OFF LOW IS
GOING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS WE HEAD INTO THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN
WITH THIS SYSTEM, THERE WILL BE AT LEAST THE CHANCES FOR RAIN
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LOW MVFR TO IFR CONDS ACROSS THE NRN TAF SITES CURRENT
INTO TNGT W/ MVFR CONDS PSBLY IMPROVING TO VFR LATE. EXPECT VFR
TO HIGH MVFR ACROSS THE SRN TAF SITES IMPROVING TO VFR LATER THIS
AM.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO START AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS FRIDAY MORNING, WHILE THE SOUTHERN SITES WILL
BE VFR. HOWEVER, IMPROVING CEILINGS MEANS THE NORTHERN SITES WILL
REACH VFR BY 18Z FRIDAY AND REMAIN SO THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT BEST CHANCES FOR
MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. SNOW MAY BRIEFLY MIX IN WITH THE RAIN AT THE NORTHERN
SITES FRIDAY, SATURDAY, AND SUNDAY NIGHTS, BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: STRONG SCA CONDS EXPECTED W/ OCNL MARGINAL GLWS PSBL
AT TIMES...

SHORT TERM: THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED A FEW HOURS INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO
SUBSIDE. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR SUBSEQUENT
SHIFTS TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS AND MAKE CHANGES
ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE RESTRICTED
VISIBILITY IN RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KHW
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...KHW/HASTINGS
MARINE...KHW/HASTINGS






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