Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 161027
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
627 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. WEAK HIGH
PRES WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS NORTHERN MAINE WEDNESDAY AND THEN STALL OVER CENTRAL MAINE
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL
TRACK ALONG THE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION LATER THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
530 AM UPDATE: NO CHGS TO POPS AND CLD CVR THIS UPDATE...WITH BOTH
RADAR AND HRLY MESO MODEL OUTPUT CONSISTENT WITH THE IDEA OF LGT
SHWRS TRAVERSING ACROSS THE REGION FROM QB PROV THRU THE MORN INTO
ERLY AFTN HRS. OTHERWISE...THE TREND OF SLOWLY RISING TEMPS WAS
INCORPORATED INTO FCST HRLY TEMPS PRIOR TO SUNRISE...WITH FCST
HRLY TEMPS THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND AFTN MODIFIED
TO...ATTM...UNCHGD FCST HI TEMPS.

ORGNL DISC: SHOWERS WITH A WEAK MID LVL S/WV WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS
THE FA TDY FROM THE WSW...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY E OF THE
REGION BY MID AFTN...AND EVEN BREAKS IN THE CLDNSS LATE THIS AFTN.
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL MSLY RANGE FROM 0.08 TO 0.15 INCHES...
ENOUGH TO GO WITH MAX POPS BETWEEN 70 AND 90 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES...
WHICH INITIALLY WILL BE SLOW TO RISE DUE TO CLD CVR AND SHWRS MAY
HAVE BETTER RECOVERY WITH LMTD SUNSHINE THIS AFTN...BUT STILL A
FEW DEG BLO SEASONAL NORMS.

OTHERWISE...WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL CLRG AND LGT WINDS TNGT AS A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES FROM THE OH VLY SETTLES OVR THE REGION...
THE PROSPECTS FOR PATCHY LATE NGT FOG EXISTS DUE TO REMNANT GROUND
MOISTURE FROM TDY`S SHWRS. OVRNGT LOWS WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY AND STALL. THERE WILL BE A GOOD DEAL OF
CLOUD COVER IN NORTHERN ZONES THAT WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE
50S WHILE BANGOR AND DOWN EAST WILL SEE MORE SUNSHINE AND WARM TO
THE MID 60S. THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN LATE AS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT AND BRINGS SOME STEADY RAIN
INTO THE CROWN OF MAINE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW EXITS THURSDAY
MORNING...IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AND BRING THE
COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON TO DATE. PRECIPITATION ON MOUNTAINS
SUCH AS KATAHDIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY
BE NEAR 50F IN THE CROWN OF MAINE WHILE LOWER 60S ARE FORECAST FOR
BANGOR AND ELLSWORTH. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 20 MPH
ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD AIR MASS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A HARD FREEZE IN NORTHERN ZONES AND A FROST IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE
HOW FAST WINDS WILL DECREASE AND ALLOW RADIATIONAL COOLING. FOR
NOW...WILL GO WITH UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
THE ALLAGASH WILL BE THE COLD SPOT WITH LOWER 20S AND PERHAPS A
FEW READINGS INTO THE UPPER TEENS. THE DOWN EAST COAST WILL BE ON
THE OTHER EXTREME WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY WILL REMAIN CHILLY UNDER A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. MORE FROST IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
SHOULD REDUCE THE RISK. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER TO MUCH WARMER
LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LOWER 60S ON SATURDAY AND UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S ON SUNDAY. WHILE TEMPERATURE TRENDS OVER THE WEEKEND
LOOK PRETTY SOLID...THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTION ON CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION TOWARDS NORTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS QUEBEC...JUST NORTH OF MAINE DURING MUCH
OF THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS MUCH OF THE WEEKEND IN THE FAR NORTH. THE FRONT WILL
FINALLY PUSH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND EXIT THE
REGION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: INITIALLY VFR ERLY THIS MORN...THEN MSLY MVFR MID MORN
THRU ERLY AFTN MAINLY FOR NRN TAF SITES IN LOW CLGS AND VSBYS WITH
SHWRS...WHILE DOWNEAST SITES LOWER TO LOW VFR BY MIDDAY. ALL SITES
SHOULD RETURN BACK TO VFR LATE TDY INTO THIS EVE...WITH PATCHY
FOG LATE TNGT BRINGING MVFR AND PERHAPS EVEN IFR VSBYS TO A FEW TAF
SITES LATE TNGT.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR WEDNESDAY. MVFR TEMPO IFR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR FOR MUCH OF
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY THE MORNING. BECOMING VFR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED. LONG PD SWELL FROM EDOUARD...WELL
OUT IN THE OPEN ATLC BEGINS ARRIVING TDY...WITH SLOWLY BUILDING WV
HTS TO 3 TO 4 FT BY LATE TNGT. WENT WITH ABOUT 90-95 PERCENT OF WW3
WV HT GUIDANCE VALUES GIVEN THE SWELL NATURE OF THE WVS.

SHORT TERM: LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM EDOUARD MAY REACH 5 FT BY WED
NIGHT. OTHERWISE...NW WINDS WILL LIKELY MEET SCA CRITERIA LATER
THURSDAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW








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