Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
FXUS61 KCAR 242241
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
641 PM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016
Low pressure to our north will slowly move to the east tonight
into Wednesday. High pressure will cross the region Thursday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
620 PM Update: Some rain/snow showers moving across the northern
portions of the forecast as upper disturbance swings across the
region. Plenty of clouds across the region per the latest IR satl
imagery and obs. Surface analysis showed trof of low pres moving
toward Quebec. This feature is forecast to move across the region
overnight delivering another round of precip mainly in the form
of light snow across the n and w.
Low pressure to our north will maintain a gusty, chilly westerly
breeze across the area tonight with a mostly cloudy sky. Moisture
will continue backing south around the low bringing scattered rain
and snow showers to northern and central areas. The low will
slowly move to the east on Tuesday as moisture continues to wrap
south around the low. Showers of rain and snow will continue
across the north with boundary layer thicknesses low enough to
support mostly snow across the far north. Otherwise, Tuesday will
be a breezy, cloudy and cool day similar to today across central
and northern areas. The Downeast coast, which had some sunshine
today, will be cloudier on Tuesday as deep moisture circulating
south around departing low pressure pushes down across coastal
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An upper level trof wil remain across the region Tuesday night
through Wednesday, then move east Wednesday night. A surface trof
also persists Tuesday night into Wednesday. High pressure builds
across the region Wednesday night through early Thursday, then
begins to move east later Thursday while low pressure tracks east
across the eastern Great Lakes. Will have a chance of rain/snow
showers across northern areas Tuesday night through Wednesday.
Expect precipitation mostly in the form of snow showers from the
evening through the early morning hours, with rain showers from
late morning into the afternoon. Across Downeast areas, will have
a slight chance/chance of rain or snow showers. Generally expect
diurnal snow showers from the overnight through the early morning
hours with rain showers during the morning and afternoon. Expect
decreasing clouds Wednesday night. Cloud cover will then begin to
increase later Thursday in advance of the approaching low.
Temperatures will be at below normal levels Wednesday/Thursday.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Secondary low pressure will begin to develop along the New England
coast Thursday night, while high pressure exits across the
maritimes. Precipitation will begin to expand northeast across
the forecast area Thursday night. Expect precipitation mostly in
the form of light rain Downeast, with light snow across central
and northern areas. The low moves east Friday, though uncertainty
exists regarding the strength and track of the low along with the
amount of cold air available which will influence precipitation
types and totals. Have leaned toward a warmer solution which would
allow a rain/snow mix to transition to rain across northern areas
with rain Downeast Friday. However, if more cold air is available
the transition to rain could be slowed across northern areas
allowing for accumulating snow. Precipitation will diminish later
Friday night. The low will exit across the maritimes Saturday,
with another low approaching from the west late. Expect a chance
of mostly rain showers across the region Saturday. Uncertainty
then develops again Sunday into early Monday regarding the track
of another low which could keep a chance of rain/snow showers
across the region. High pressure should then begin to build east
toward the region later Monday. Temperatures will be at below
normal levels Friday, with near normal level temperatures expected
Saturday through Monday.
.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR conditions are expected across the north tonight
into Tuesday, possibly lowering to IFR at times in lower
stratocumulus clouds over the far north. Mainly VFR conditions
are expected Downeast tonight and Tuesday. Gusty west winds will
continue tonight, becoming northwesterly on Tuesday.
SHORT TERM: Occasional MVFR conditions are possible across the
region Tuesday night into Wednesday, particularly across the north
and mountains. VFR conditions are expected Wednesday night
through Thursday. Conditions will lower to MVFR levels Thursday
night. MVFR/IFR conditions are expected Friday into Friday night
though uncertainty exists regarding the track and intensity of
low pressure. Occasional MVFR conditions are possible Saturday.
NEAR TERM: An SCA will continue tonight through Tuesday for the
offshore waters for winds gusting to 25 kt. Winds will be mainly
below SCA over the intracoastal waters. However, a few gusts to
25 kt will be possible overnight tonight.
SHORT TERM: Small craft advisory conditions are expected Tuesday
night into Wednesday night. Conditions are expected to be below
small craft advisory levels Thursday. Could also have a slight
chance of rain showers Tuesday night into Wednesday.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ050-051.