Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 291050
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
350 AM PDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...EXCEPT FOR SOME DRIZZLE NEAR THE COAST...MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
NORTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL RETURN EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAS BUILT OVER THE WEST COAST
BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER
NORTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE COAST IS RESULTING IN SOME UPSLOPE FLOW
NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO AND LIGHT DRIZZLE HAS BEEN REPORTED IN
SEVERAL LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST. THE DRIZZLE SHOULD DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE THIS MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND SQUASHES THE RIDGE. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS
SHORTWAVE HAVE ALREADY MOVED OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT ANY RAIN WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA...BUT IT WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE TO SEE A SHOWER DEVELOP OVER
THE DEL NORTE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON OR SOME DRIZZLE TO
REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH MOVES INLAND.

SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA TONIGHT.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER PERSISTS AFTER
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND...SO A FROST ADVISORY HAS NOT BEEN
ISSUED AT THIS TIME DESPITE LOWS FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE MID
30S IN THE TYPICAL COLD INTERIOR VALLEYS OF TRINITY AND MENDOCINO
COUNTIES.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE/LOW WILL DIVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND THEN
DESERT SOUTHWEST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. RIDGING WILL BUILD NORTHEAST
OVER THIS LOW RESULTING IN DECENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA. DRYING AND WARMING IS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY...AS
THE THERMAL TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO PUSH OFF THE COAST. TEMPERATURES MAY
WARM TO NEARLY 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN SOME INTERIOR AREAS AND
APPROACH 70F NEAR THE COAST DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF THE UPPER
LOW OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.

THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY ALLOWING ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH/LOW TO DIVE SOUTH OFF THE WEST COAST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE THIS LOW COULD BECOME CUTOFF AND DRIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION
INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS TRACK WOULD BE IDEAL FOR MOISTURE TO
SPREAD NORTH ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW AND POTENTIALLY RESULT IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. RPA


&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE AT KCEC AND KACV THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE LOWER
CONDITIONS ARE DUE TO REDUCED CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND PATCHY FOG AT TIMES IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL
IMPROVE LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AS A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS AND MODERATE AND
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT KCEC AND KACV THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI THROUGH TONIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI THIS MORNING
WITH THE WINDS BECOMING MODERATE AND GUSTY LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING AT KUKI.


&&

.MARINE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING.  A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL INCREASE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE MARINE WATERS SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASING
THE WINDS AND SEAS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE FURTHER SATURDAY
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE AREA. ELEVATED
SEAS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PZZ450-470.

     GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
     PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ455.

     GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
     PZZ475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

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