Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 272226
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
326 PM MST MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LIMIT MOST MONSOON ACTIVITY TO
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS TODAY. EXPECT A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL
MONSOON PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE AND LATER PARTS OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY DUE TO A TROUGH PASSING WELL
TO OUR NORTH HAS LED TO GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND BREEZY
DAYTIME WINDS. AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH AND
EAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-ESTABLISH ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL LIKELY RETURN ARIZONA TO A MORE TYPICAL
MONSOONAL FLOW PATTERN...AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...PERSISTING INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
ALL TAF SITES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA THRU 02Z POSSIBLE SOUTHERN APACHE COUNTY. SCT
ACTIVITY SOUTHERN APACHE AND NAVAJO COUNTIES AFT 18Z TUES...WITH
ISOLD STORM ACTIVITY AS FAR NORTHWEST AS KFGZ. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK INTO THE SOUTHWEST OPENING THE DOOR FOR
THE RETURN OF THE MONSOON FLOW AND MOISTURE. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS AND AS FAR NORTH AS WINDOW
ROCK...WITH ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY AS FAR NORTHWEST AS THE GRAND
CANYON.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...EXPECT A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
MONSOON CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY. NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
LEVELS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KD
AVIATION...TC
FIRE WEATHER...TC

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF


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