Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 151123

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
423 AM MST Fri Dec 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Temperatures will warm some today before a weather
system ushers in windy and colder weather later on Saturday
through Monday. Chances for rain and high elevation snow will also
develop, primarily on Sunday.


Fair and warmer weather will return today, before another
disturbance crosses the state this weekend. Breezy winds will
develop and temperatures are forecast to drop to below normal by
Sunday. Though some of the details with this upcoming system
remain uncertain, rain and snow showers are expected, primarily on
Sunday with the potential for some light snow accumulations
across the higher terrain. After the passage of the weekend
system, a return to more benign weather is expected early next
week, with some extended range models indicating another period of
unsettled weather toward the end of next week.


.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...VFR conditions expected over the
next 24 hours under increasing high clouds Friday afternoon.
Surface winds will taper off overnight to 5-15 kts as a weak
weather disturbance moves out of Arizona. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER... Winds will decouple in the valleys north of the
Mogollon rim as the inversion sets up, but continue across areas
along and south of the Mogollon Rim overnight, gradually decreasing
to 5 to 20 mph by morning. Fair and warmer weather is expected
Friday and Saturday with temperatures 5 degrees above normal.

Sunday through Tuesday... Another cold front will move through from
north to south early Sunday morning dropping temperatures to near
normal and bringing a chance of a few light rain or showers mostly
over the Mogollon rim and White mountains to the southeast . Clear
weather should return on Monday with temperatures back to about 5
degrees above normal.






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