Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 251122

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
420 AM MST Tue Oct 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Rapidly drying conditions will develop today as the
system that produced showers and thunderstorms overnight moves into
New Mexico. Mainly dry and warm conditions will continue for the
remainder of the week. In fact, temperatures by Thursday will range
from 10 to almost 15 degrees above normal. A slight chance of
showers will return by Friday and into next weekend.


.DISCUSSION...A trough moving through central Arizona early this
morning has brought a wide area of showers and thunderstorms to the
CWA. After a slow start yesterday, the nearly 24 hours of moisture
advection into southern California, southern Nevada and western
Arizona finally paid dividends. Enough moisture was in place for
convection to develop, aided by the weak dynamics of the trough.
This area of convection moved east Monday evening and has now
reached the New Mexico border. Some trailing convective showers have
been occurring in the upslope areas of central Arizona, well behind
the main trough axis.

As the day goes on, we expect drier mid level air and rising hghts,
indicating warming in the mid-levels of the atmosphere. This should
bring a rapid decrease and eventual end to any shower activity
sometime this afternoon.

The remainder of the week will feature well above normal hghts and
daytime temperatures as a high amplitude ridge builds over New
Mexico. Another weak trough will brush the area Friday and
SAturday, with a slight chance of showers returning. A cold front
arrives Sunday and Monday, keeping a slight threat of showers in the
forecast, as well as bringing an  end to above normal temperatures.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z forecast...Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will continue across northern AZ through mid morning
before tapering off. Locally heavy rain producing MVFR/IFR possible
in stronger storms. A return to VFR conditions after 18Z with only
an isolated light shower or storm possible over the high terrain
this afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.






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