Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 190448

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
948 PM MST Wed Oct 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A passing weather disturbance will bring a slight
chance for light rain showers, and a few thunderstorms to the
area through Thursday. On Friday, a cold front moving through the
Great Basin will bring strong southwest winds and cooling
temperatures. Warming conditions and dry weather are forecast from
Sunday into next week.


.DISCUSSION...Increased cloud cover associated with a passing
shortwave trough should keep low temperatures a few degrees
warmer tonight than the previous night. In addition, a slight
chance for showers is forecast across most of the area, but dry
low level conditions means that precipitation will largely
evaporate before reaching the ground. Otherwise, expect a quiet


.PREV DISCUSSION /319 PM MST/...A weak shortwave trough nearing
Las Vegas will move slowly across northern Arizona over the next
24 hours spreading clouds across the area. Expect an increasing
chance for light shower development tonight through Thursday,
though coverage will remain scattered at best. Any precipitation
amounts are expected to remain less than a tenth of an inch.

By Thursday afternoon, southwest winds will be on the increase and
limited instability will result in a few thunderstorms primarily
across eastern Arizona. On Friday, a cold front moving through the
Great Basin will support even stronger southwest winds gusting 30
to 40 MPH. The chance for any showers will come to an end late
Thursday night with drier weather expected Friday through the
weekend. Temperatures will trend downward each day. Saturday will
be the "coolest" day with high temperatures near average.

We still have high confidence in strong high pressure building
over the western U.S. Sunday through at least the first half of
next week resulting in dry weather and climbing temperatures


.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...VFR conditions will prevail for
the next 24 hrs. Widely scattered, light rain showers are forecast
through Thursday, with a few thunderstorms possible after 18Z.
In addition, expect increasing winds after 18Z, with south to
southwest winds from 10 to 15 knots and gusts into the 18 to 24
knot range across much of the area. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...A weak disturbance will bring increasing clouds
and a chance of rain showers tonight through Thursday. A few
thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon. Wetting rain is
unlikely for most locations. Southwest winds will increase Thursday
and even more on Friday as a cold front moves through the Great

Saturday through Monday...Drier and cooler air arrives Saturday,
along with a wind switch to a more northerly direction, lasting
through Monday. A return to well above normal temperatures and very
dry surface conditions is expected starting Sunday.






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