Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 071703
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1003 AM MST TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA THROUGH TODAY. DRIER AIR WILL PUSH EASTWARD WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH LITTLE OR NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
CENTRAL AND WESTERN ARIZONA. THE CHANCE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS APACHE COUNTY. MOISTURE WILL SPREAD WESTWARD THIS
WEEKEND...WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS ALL OF THE NORTHLAND BY
SUNDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...RAISED SHOWER/T-STORM CHANCES SLIGHTLY FROM AROUND
FLAGSTAFF NORTHWARD FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL COLD
AIR/STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
ARIZONA TODAY. DRYING IS STILL ON TAP STARTING TOMORROW, BUT THERE
IS A BIT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON JUST HOW FAR EAST THE DRIER AIR
WILL PUSH. RAISED POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BACK TO AROUND 20
PERCENT FOR THE FLAGSTAFF/GRAND CANYON AREAS, HIGHER EAST OF
THERE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK LIKE THE DRIEST DAYS, WITH STORM
CHANCES LIKELY CONFINED TO FAR EASTERN ARIZONA. UPDATES SENT A
SHORT TIME AGO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /330 AM MST/... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHLAND THIS MORNING. SATELLITE PW
ESTIMATES AND SFC DEW POINTS ARE LOWER THAN 24 HOURS AGO.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL MORE THAN ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ALOFT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING AS SOLAR HEATING PROVIDES THE
LIFT NEEDED TO GET THIS GOING.

STILL EXPECTING A STRONG DRYING TREND STARTING WEDNESDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE WEST COAST TURNS OUR FLOW TO
SOUTHWESTERLY. MONSOON MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS APACHE
COUNTY THOUGH.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT IT WILL BE DRY
AND STABLE ENOUGH FOR NO STORM ACTIVITY WEST OF A LINE FROM
KAYENTA TO PAYSON. BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS COCONINO AND YAVPAI COUNTIES...WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL, WITH VALUES 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW DAILY AVERAGES.  MOST MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE THE RIDGE
PUSHING WESTWARD BY THE WEEKEND, PUSHING MONSOON MOISTURE BACK
INTO OUR AREA. RAIN CHANCES GO UP FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...SCT TSRA/SHRA ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
THROUGH AROUND 04Z WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDS NEAR STORMS. ISOLD-SCT
-SHRA MAY CONTINUE THROUGH 10Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL KEEP A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
CIRCULATION OVER ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY. DRIER WESTERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A GRADUAL DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH DECREASING AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ/DL
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...TC

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF


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