Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 222225
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 PM MST TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED INTO NEW MEXICO AND THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH WILL INCREASE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OVER
ARIZONA THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 3 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE HIGH PRESSURE CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN
NEW MEXICO TODAY. THIS IS A GOOD PLACEMENT TO INCREASE THE MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER ARIZONA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE CENTER OF THE HIGH CROSSED THE
TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY THIS MORNING. STREAMLINE FORECAST CHARTS
SHOW THIS FEATURE MOVING INTO ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY FOR A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MOISTURE
LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH (OVER AN INCH PWAT FOR THE WESTERN MOGOLLON
RIM) THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL THEN DECREASE
AGAIN AFTER THURSDAY FOR A SLIGHT DECREASES IN STORM ACTIVITY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 3 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AREAS OF SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES...WITH MVFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE VCNTY KSEZ...KFLG...KGCN. ISOLATED -SHRA/TSRA UNTIL 03Z
WEDS...THEN BECOMING ISOLATED OVERNIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO 40 KT
POSSIBLE NEAR STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELLS. SCATTERED -SHRA/TSRA
REDEVELOPING AFTER 18Z THU. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MAS
AVIATION.......JJ

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF


















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