Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 250406

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
906 PM MST SAT SEP 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Expect dry and mild conditions to persist through
Sunday, with breezy northeast winds becoming locally gusty tonight
and tomorrow. Starting Monday, low pressure moving in from Mexico
will bring in more moisture resulting in a chance for showers and
thunderstorms for much of next week.


.UPDATE...We are beginning to see an increase in northeast winds
over higher elevations locations this evening. These northeast
winds are expected to increase through the overnight hours into
Sunday morning, particularly from a Flagstaff to Show Line
southwestward into Yavapai/Gila Counties. This is in response to
low pressure over the AZ/NM border drifting south and strong high
pressure building in from the NW. Localized gusts will reach 30 to
40 mph over and downwind of favored high terrain features. Made
minor short term forecast tweaks with no other updates needed.


.PREV DISCUSSION /301 PM MST/... As the main part of the trough
that brought us our cold front on Thursday night/Friday continues
to move into the northern Plains tomorrow, the southern portion of
the trough is forecast to close off tonight and drift
southwestward back toward Baja. Arizona will be influenced by the
easterly winds on the north side of this low pressure center
through the early part of next week. The low is forecast to get
picked up in the prevailing southwesterly flow around Tuesday and
drift slowly northward across Arizona as it fills.

Weather-wise, northern Arizona will experience breezy to locally
gusty winds from tonight through Monday, with the direction
gradually veering from northeast to east as the low changes
position. Precip chances should remain minimal until Monday, when
the NAEFS ensemble mean shows a corridor of moisture transport
pushing into southern Arizona. The greatest precip chances Monday
will be over the eastern Rim/White Mountains. Chances for showers
and thunderstorms overspread a larger portion of northern Arizona
on Tuesday and Wednesday as the low moves toward and over the

Precip chances will decrease somewhat following Wednesday and high
temperatures are expected to return to near or slightly above
average values as the area is in southwest flow between a ridge
over Texas and a trough over the Pacific Northwest. A couple of
weak short-wave troughs are depicted by the 12Z GFS as moving
through the southwest flow in the Friday-Saturday time frame,
though, so precipitation and some brief cooling cannot be ruled


.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...VFR conditions are expected to
persist throughout the next 24 hours. Breezy to locally gusty
NE winds overnight tonight are expected to become more widespread
by Sunday morning, especially near and southwest of a KGCN-KFLG-
KSOW line. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.






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