Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 061744 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1244 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR WILL PREVAIL THIS TAF PERIOD. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10
KTS...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS...WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS ON SATURDAY WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS WITH
GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LEE-SIDE
SURFACE LOW. HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO INCREASE ON SATURDAY IN
ADVANCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST TEXAS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS BUT
CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE IMMEDIATE NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS TAF SITES UNTIL LATE SUNDAY.

JLDUNN

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY-THURSDAY)...
FOR SUNDAY...A BETTER INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTHWARDS ACROSS WESTERN ZONES EARLY SUNDAY AS THE FOUR
CORNERS TROUGH EJECTS OUT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MID/UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. 30 TO 40 METER HEIGHT FALLS WILL GRADUALLY
OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH. WITH LEE-SIDE TROUGHING EXPECTED TO
OCCUR...A DRYLINE SHOULD SHARPEN OUT ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
AND DOWN INTO THE BIG COUNTRY. LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD HELP TO
STEEPEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SLOWLY ERODE A CAPPING
INVERSION. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF CAVEATS WITH REGARDS TO
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HOWEVER. ONE WILL BE THE PRESENCE OF THE
THICK CIRRUS CANOPY AS SUGGESTED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THESE
CLOUDS WOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF DIABATIC HEATING NECESSARY TO NOT
ONLY INCREASE INSTABILITY...BUT ALSO LIMIT OR REMOVE ANOTHER
MECHANISM THAT COULD HELP IN THE EROSION OF THE CAP. IN
ADDITION...THE DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...MEANING THAT ANY MESOSCALE ASCENT WOULD LIKELY
REMAIN OUTSIDE OF EVEN OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES. AS A
RESULT...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS MAY REMAIN
FURTHER TO THE WEST. IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP WELL
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE
WEATHER...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE
TORNADO THREAT DOES APPEAR TO BE MORE OF A SECONDARY THREAT AS
LCLS MAY BE A BIT HIGH. FOR NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ALL
THREE HAZARDS IN GRAPHICASTS AND OUTLOOKS.

AS HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA INTO SUNDAY
EVENING...ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR WILL STILL SUPPORT STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY MOVE FURTHER TOWARDS THE EAST AS SUGGESTED
BY COARSER SCALE MODELS. ONCE WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER TO
SUNDAY...OUTPUT FROM HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SHOULD ALLOW FOR
A HIGHER CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

FOR MONDAY...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST WANES AS THE EVOLUTION OF
SUNDAY`S CONVECTION WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT PART ON MONDAY`S
CONVECTIVE CHANCES. IT DOES APPEAR PLAUSIBLE THAT THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ONGOING MONDAY MORNING BUT THE AREAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY BOTH REMAIN UNCERTAIN. MOST OF THE COARSER MODELS DO
SUGGEST THAT THE DRYLINE WILL MIX TOWARDS THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY
AND SHOULD END UP NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR. WITH AN ADDITIONAL DAY
OF RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF...INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE HIGHER
ON MONDAY THAN SUNDAY. WHILE THE BETTER SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING
WILL REMAIN DISPLACED TO THE NORTH IN OKLAHOMA...THERE SHOULD BE A
GOOD CHUNK OF MESOSCALE ASCENT ALONG THE TRAILING DRYLINE TO
FACILITATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION...PROVIDED
SUFFICIENT DIABATIC HEATING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
AGAIN...INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEY DEVELOP. THE CONTINUED FETCH OF MOISTURE
WILL ALSO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR FLOODING. ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON
SEVERE WEATHER AND THE FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL BECOME MORE
AVAILABLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. WITH A LARGE
MAJORITY OF THE FORCING EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NORTH...THE
DRYLINE OR DRYLINE/FRONT MERGER IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT SOMEWHERE
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. WITH THE MOIST REGIME IN
PLACE...SEVERAL MODELS ARE GENERATING A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
NEAR AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN HOWEVER
SUGGESTS THAT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE LARGELY SUBSIDENT ON THE
BACK SIDE OF MONDAY`S TROUGH. THIS ONLY WARRANTS LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT DETAILS REMAINS
LOW. IN ADDITION...BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL RESULT IN GOOD ADIABATIC
COMPRESSION WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE
90S...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WEST OF I-35 ON TUESDAY. THE UPPER AIR
PATTERN BECOMES SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL TOWARDS MIDWEEK WHICH COULD
ALLOW FOR A FEW WEAK PERTURBATIONS TO QUICKLY RIPPLE THROUGH. AS A
RESULT...LOW RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RED RIVER.

BAIN

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL AS A SURFACE
HIGH GRADUALLY SLIDES TOWARDS THE EAST ACROSS THE ARK-LA-TEX.
NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHEASTERLY IN RESPONSE. WHILE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE TYPICALLY
VERY FAVORABLE FOR GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT...THE MOST RECENT
FRONTAL INTRUSION INTO THE GULF HAS CONFINED SOME OF THE RICH
MOISTURE TO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. AS A
RESULT...IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME BEFORE THE REALLY RICH GULF AIR IS
ABLE TO MAKE IT BACK UP INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...MORE ON THIS
LATER. WITH THE RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE...THE
DIURNAL SWING BETWEEN HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
FAIRY LARGE. AFTER STARTING OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...MUCH OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH
A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. TONIGHT`S TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW ENSUES AND A BATCH OF THICK UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS ARRIVES FROM
THE WEST.

FOR SATURDAY...THE UPPER CIRRUS DECK SHOULD CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION WHICH MAY HELP TO CURB THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND.
AS A RESULT...TWEAKED TEMPERATURES DOWN BY A FEW DEGREES TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE FILTERED SUNSHINE. REGARDLESS...CONDITIONS WILL
STILL BE VERY PLEASANT AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE QUITE LOW.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE A TAD WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO BE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
WHICH SHOULD HELP TO TRANSPORT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
A FEW MODELS ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP SOME WEAK CONVECTION ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES ON SATURDAY EVENING IN THE WEAK WAA REGIME...BUT
GIVEN THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AND POOR QUALITY OF WHAT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE DOES LIFT NORTHWARD AT THE SURFACE...I`VE DECIDED TO
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. IN ADDITION...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN
INDICATES SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND THUS SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY-THURSDAY)...
FOR SUNDAY...A BETTER INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTHWARDS ACROSS WESTERN ZONES EARLY SUNDAY AS THE FOUR
CORNERS TROUGH EJECTS OUT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MID/UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. 30 TO 40 METER HEIGHT FALLS WILL GRADUALLY
OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH. WITH LEE-SIDE TROUGHING EXPECTED TO
OCCUR...A DRYLINE SHOULD SHARPEN OUT ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
AND DOWN INTO THE BIG COUNTRY. LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD HELP TO
STEEPEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SLOWLY ERODE A CAPPING
INVERSION. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF CAVEATS WITH REGARDS TO
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HOWEVER. ONE WILL BE THE PRESENCE OF THE
THICK CIRRUS CANOPY AS SUGGESTED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THESE
CLOUDS WOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF DIABATIC HEATING NECESSARY TO NOT
ONLY INCREASE INSTABILITY...BUT ALSO LIMIT OR REMOVE ANOTHER
MECHANISM THAT COULD HELP IN THE EROSION OF THE CAP. IN
ADDITION...THE DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...MEANING THAT ANY MESOSCALE ASCENT WOULD LIKELY
REMAIN OUTSIDE OF EVEN OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES. AS A
RESULT...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS MAY REMAIN
FURTHER TO THE WEST. IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP WELL
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE
WEATHER...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE
TORNADO THREAT DOES APPEAR TO BE MORE OF A SECONDARY THREAT AS
LCLS MAY BE A BIT HIGH. FOR NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ALL
THREE HAZARDS IN GRAPHICASTS AND OUTLOOKS.

AS HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA INTO SUNDAY
EVENING...ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR WILL STILL SUPPORT STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY MOVE FURTHER TOWARDS THE EAST AS SUGGESTED
BY COARSER SCALE MODELS. ONCE WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER TO
SUNDAY...OUTPUT FROM HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SHOULD ALLOW FOR
A HIGHER CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

FOR MONDAY...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST WANES AS THE EVOLUTION OF
SUNDAY`S CONVECTION WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT PART ON MONDAY`S
CONVECTIVE CHANCES. IT DOES APPEAR PLAUSIBLE THAT THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ONGOING MONDAY MORNING BUT THE AREAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY BOTH REMAIN UNCERTAIN. MOST OF THE COARSER MODELS DO
SUGGEST THAT THE DRYLINE WILL MIX TOWARDS THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY
AND SHOULD END UP NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR. WITH AN ADDITIONAL DAY
OF RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF...INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE HIGHER
ON MONDAY THAN SUNDAY. WHILE THE BETTER SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING
WILL REMAIN DISPLACED TO THE NORTH IN OKLAHOMA...THERE SHOULD BE A
GOOD CHUNK OF MESOSCALE ASCENT ALONG THE TRAILING DRYLINE TO
FACILITATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION...PROVIDED
SUFFICIENT DIABATIC HEATING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
AGAIN...INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEY DEVELOP. THE CONTINUED FETCH OF MOISTURE
WILL ALSO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR FLOODING. ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON
SEVERE WEATHER AND THE FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL BECOME MORE
AVAILABLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. WITH A LARGE
MAJORITY OF THE FORCING EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NORTH...THE
DRYLINE OR DRYLINE/FRONT MERGER IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT SOMEWHERE
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. WITH THE MOIST REGIME IN
PLACE...SEVERAL MODELS ARE GENERATING A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
NEAR AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN HOWEVER
SUGGESTS THAT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE LARGELY SUBSIDENT ON THE
BACK SIDE OF MONDAY`S TROUGH. THIS ONLY WARRANTS LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT DETAILS REMAINS
LOW. IN ADDITION...BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL RESULT IN GOOD ADIABATIC
COMPRESSION WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE
90S...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WEST OF I-35 ON TUESDAY. THE UPPER AIR
PATTERN BECOMES SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL TOWARDS MIDWEEK WHICH COULD
ALLOW FOR A FEW WEAK PERTURBATIONS TO QUICKLY RIPPLE THROUGH. AS A
RESULT...LOW RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RED RIVER.

BAIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    85  60  81  64  80 /   0   0   0   5  20
WACO                84  57  81  64  81 /   0   0   0   5  20
PARIS               80  56  81  61  79 /   0   0   0   5  20
DENTON              83  57  83  64  80 /   0   0   0   5  20
MCKINNEY            83  57  82  63  79 /   0   0   0   5  20
DALLAS              85  62  83  65  80 /   0   0   0   5  20
TERRELL             82  58  81  63  80 /   0   0   0   5  20
CORSICANA           83  58  81  63  81 /   0   0   0   5  10
TEMPLE              84  57  81  64  81 /   0   0   0   5  20
MINERAL WELLS       84  57  82  64  82 /   0   0   5  10  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

82/25


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