Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 291234 AAA
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
734 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.AVIATION...
Winds shifted to the northwest around 10z in the Metroplex as an
area of showers and thunderstorms approached. These winds should
come back around to the southeast around 14z. In the meantime, lingering
showers/thunderstorms should continue to weaken so have kept -RA
in the Metroplex TAFs through 15z with a mention of VCTS. Expect
mostly VFR conditions through 10z with some stratus possible
before daybreak Memorial Day. There will be a very low chance of a
thunderstorm late this afternoon into this evening but the chances
are too low to include in the TAFs at this time. With a complex of
storms expected to develop to our northwest this afternoon and
move southeast, have included a VCTS starting at 06z in the
Metroplex TAFs.

For Waco: Although the rain did not reach the airport, an outflow
boundary did move through around 11z with a wind shift to the
north at around 10 knots. Expect winds to come back around to the
southeast 15-16z. MVFR ceilings around 1200 feet should give way
to VFR conditions by 16z. Expect MVFR ceilings to spread back into
the area by 10z Monday.


58

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016/
Convective activity continues this morning fueled by convergence
at the nose of a strong nocturnal low-level jet and associated
intense moisture transport. Steep mid-level lapse rates above
this plume of moisture transport have yielded MUCAPEs of
3000-4000J/kg, and when combined with relatively weak shear of 20
to 30kts, have created an environment very favorable for elevated
multicell storms with primarily a borderline severe hail threat,
which is exactly what we saw seen yesterday evening and early
this morning. There seems to be subsidence across the eastern
portion of our area which has helped weaken thunderstorms as they
continue to move east, not to mention the low-level jet is 10-15
kts weaker over our area than over parts of west TX where activity
initially developed. The expectation is for activity to continue
weakening the farther east it progresses, but rain and occasional
thunder will be possible through the morning especially along and
west of I-35.

The evolution for the rest of today is still somewhat unclear at
this time. Lingering clouds should keep skies partly to mostly
cloudy through at least the early afternoon with any lingering
showers ending around midday. Areas receiving any sun this
afternoon should reach the mid or even upper 80s for afternoon
highs with most areas remaining dry through the early evening.
Some isolated showers and storms are possible late this afternoon
and early evening, but should not be sufficient to ruin any
outdoor plans.

It appears we are still on track to see a complex of storms
develop in the TX Panhandle late this evening and affect at least
part of the area overnight into Monday morning. It`s difficult to
pin down exactly which direction this complex will move, and it
may have elements of both a forward propagating MCS across north
Texas as well as a backbuilding MCS across the far western
portion of our area. Have included broad PoPs with this forecast
issuance with our far northwest counties the most likely to be
impacted from this system which would primarily be a wind and
heavy rain threat. If the MCS becomes primarily backward
propagating, the majority of the complex could miss our area to the
west with only our western 1/3rd being affected. Some lingering
activity will be possible area- wide through the day on Memorial
Day, but would expect fairly low coverage and most areas should
stay dry for the remainder of the day.

A deepening trough across the Four Corners region will fire off
another round of convection in West TX on Monday evening and
another complex is expected to affect our area as storms congeal
into a MCS and move east overnight Monday night into Tuesday
morning. This complex is most likely to affect areas west of I-35
but may be capable of moving into our eastern counties as well.
Additional rounds of showers and storms are likely again Tuesday
night as continued forcing from the upper-level low acts upon a
moist and unstable air mass generating numerous and largely
disorganized convection across much of the Southern Plains. Weak
wind shear will help to preclude widespread severe weather but a
few strong to severe storms will be possible with ample instability
still in place.

A cold front is still expected to move into North Texas on
Wednesday which will result in widespread showers and
thunderstorms. The slow moving nature of this storm system will
result in numerous chances for widespread heavy rain which will
persist into Thursday as post-frontal showers and storms remain
likely. Throughout the course of the next week, most of our area
should receive 1 to 3 inches of rain with some locations probably
receiving much more. As a result, flooding will be our main
concern through the next 5 days.

The GFS and ECMWF are less progressive with this storm system than
previous runs and now maintain a deep cutoff low over our area
into early next weekend. This would result in slight chances for
rain showers or thunderstorms through Saturday as we remain in
the "cool" post-frontal airmass. Extended guidance has been
consistently showing a quieter period for the second week of June
with a more diffuse flow pattern aloft across much of the southern
US.

-Stalley

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    86  69  86  71  85 /  60  40  50  20  50
Waco                86  69  85  69  84 /  30  30  50  20  50
Paris               85  68  85  68  84 /  20  30  40  20  40
Denton              84  68  84  68  83 /  60  40  50  20  50
McKinney            85  68  84  69  84 /  50  40  50  20  40
Dallas              87  70  86  71  86 /  60  40  50  20  50
Terrell             86  69  85  69  85 /  40  30  40  20  40
Corsicana           87  70  86  69  85 /  30  30  40  20  40
Temple              85  70  83  69  82 /  30  30  50  20  50
Mineral Wells       83  67  83  68  82 /  40  60  50  20  50

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

58/77



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