Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 110535 AAC
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1135 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

.AVIATION...
Metroplex TAF sites: Ceilings were running 2000-2500 feet just
before TAF issuance time. Expect ceilings to continue to lower
overnight as a 40 to 50 knot southerly low level jet helps
moisten the lower levels of the atmosphere. Some IFR conditions
are possible 09z to 13z, so have placed 5SM -DZ BR BKN008 in the
TAFS for that 09z to 13z period. With deeper vertical mixing
expected mid to late morning, the drizzle/fog will end and
ceilings will rise to around 2000 feet. Expect conditions to
improve to VFR around 22z as winds become more south
southwesterly. A cold front is expected to approach the Metroplex
around 03z Sunday and winds will shift to the northwest at 10 to
15 knots. Winds will then become north around 15 knots at 06z
Sunday.

Waco TAF site: Ceilings at KACT had fallen to 1700 feet just
before TAF issuance time. Ceilings will continue to lower to
IFR shortly after 06z. Expect areas of drizzle and fog and some
LIFR ceilings (ceilings below 500 feet) between 08z and 12z.
Ceilings should improve to MVFR late Sunday morning /16z/ and
to VFR toward 23z. Winds will become southwesterly by 05z ahead of
a cold front.

58

&&

.UPDATE...
Warm/moist air advection will keep clouds in place with patchy
drizzle becoming possible during the overnight period. Most areas
have likely already reached their low temperatures, so we can
expect temps to remain steady or slowly increase for the rest of
the night. A slight upward adjustment was made to the low
temperatures along the Red River, and over the far southern
counties, based on these trends. Also, went ahead and included
the patchy drizzle in all counties with this update. Otherwise, we
can expect the warmer weather and gusty south winds tomorrow ahead
of a weak cold front (which will move on through tomorrow night).

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016/

Clouds linger across most of North Texas this afternoon with the
exception of our far northwest counties where things have cleared
out. This clearing will be short lived though as clouds and
moisture will continue to surge northward through tonight. Where
the sun is shining...temperatures have warmed into the upper 50s
with most other locations in the upper 40s and lower 50s. The
increase in southerly winds is in response to falling surface
pressures in the lee of the Rockies ahead of an upper disturbance.
This system will eventually drag a cold front through North Texas
on Monday. Until then...it will be quite breezy.

For tonight...skies will remain cloudy. Areas off to the northwest
that cleared out this afternoon will again become cloudy tonight.
Ceilings are expected to lower through the night as strong
moisture advection continues. Temperatures will likely fall little
through the overnight...remaining steady or even rising in a few
spots with the strong southerly winds. As the lower atmosphere
becomes increasingly moist...areas of drizzle or light rain are
expected to develop by late tonight. Areas along and east of I-35
will have the best chance for steadier rain or showers into early
Sunday but areas of drizzle may extend well west of I-35 through
the morning hours.  While low level isentropic ascent will be
quite strong tonight...southwest winds above the surface will help
keep a strong cap in place across the region. This will keep all
of the moisture below 850mb and result in mainly drizzle and rain.
No thunderstorms are expected in our area.

On Sunday...the best lift will shift off to the northeast by
midday and winds aloft will become more westerly. This should
allow for some clearing during the afternoon hours and will
confine any lingering precipitation chances to our far eastern
counties. In addition...as deeper mixing commences later in the
morning...strong winds just off the surface may tend to mix down
resulting in some strong wind gusts. Occasional wind gusts to
35 kt are expected. Evening/overnight shift can assess the
potential for a wind advisory if it appears that winds will be
stronger than currently forecast. Other than the gusty
winds...temperatures will respond nicely into the lower/mid 70s by
afternoon.

As we get into next week...forecast uncertainty begins to
increase. A cold front will move through the region Sunday night
into early Monday morning although it won`t be significantly
colder. Highs on Monday will drop back into the low to mid 60s
areawide with north winds. Limited upper forcing for ascent should
inhibit and precipitation during the frontal passage.

The next system looks like it will move into the area on Wednesday
with another cold front moving through North Texas. This front
will bring some colder air although it now appears that the
coldest air will remain well to the north and east of our area.
The frontal slope will be shallow into Wednesday night and early
Thursday which means southerly winds will prevail atop the cooler
air. This will likely result in extensive cloud cover and perhaps
some bouts with drizzle or light rain. For now...will leave the
forecast dry for Wednesday and Wednesday night...but will increase
rain chances for Thursday as strong low level warm advection
appears to spread over the region. Highs on Thursday are expected
to be in the 40s across most of the area with 50s across the
southern counties.

A much stronger system digs into the western U.S. on Friday. This
will again allow for strong southerly winds across North Texas and
will temperatures will respond upward. After a cool start to the
day...highs are expected to warm into the mid/upper 60s and
possibly back into the 70s. Extensive cloud cover is expected with
additional chances for some light rain.

The much stronger cold front now appears that it will arrive
sometime over the weekend...likely late in the day on Saturday.
This will be another surge of arctic air with temperatures
possibly falling back into the upper 30s for highs on Sunday.
Obviously the finer details of next weekend`s forecast will be
worked out over the coming days.

Dunn



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    47  73  46  60  44 /  10   5   0   0   0
Waco                47  71  49  63  47 /  20  10   0   0   0
Paris               44  64  47  55  43 /  20  20  10   5   0
Denton              45  71  42  58  39 /  10   5   0   0   0
McKinney            45  68  45  58  41 /  10  10   0   0   0
Dallas              47  72  47  60  46 /  10  10   0   0   0
Terrell             45  68  48  60  44 /  20  20   5   0   0
Corsicana           46  71  51  63  49 /  20  20   5   5   0
Temple              49  69  50  65  49 /  20  10   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       46  73  41  60  40 /   5   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

58/30



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