Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 142330
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
430 PM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 PM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

A FAST MOVING SYSTEM WAS PRODUCING ITS GREATEST IMPACTS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THE DYNAMICAL PORTION OF THE STORM
IS DRIVEN BY A N-S ORIENTED 110KT JET STREAK. THIS JET SHIFTED
INTO NW CO AROUND MIDDAY AND WILL BE EAST OF THE DIVIDE THIS
EVENING. DENDRITIC CRYSTAL GROWTH REGION IS NEAR SATURATION
THROUGH THIS PERIOD AT AROUND 600MB/14KFT. ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE JET NOSE...SNOW SPREAD INTO NW COLORADO JUST BEFORE NOON AND
INTO THE ROARING FORK VALLEY AROUND 1PM. THE I-70 CORRIDOR FROM
GLENWOOD EAST COULD GET SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION THIS AFTERNOON.

BEFORE MIDNIGHT THE DYNAMICAL PORTION OF THE STORM IS OVER AND IT
BECOMES AN WNW OROGRAPHIC EVENT. THIS IS STILL OPTIMAL FOR THE
PARK RANGE AND STEAMBOAT SPRINGS AREA. CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS
EMPHASIZE THE BEST SNOW FROM STEAMBOAT NORTHWARD AND THIS STILL
LOOKS CORRECT. THE PARK RANGE TO VAIL PASS AND THE FLAT TOPS AND
ADJOINING VALLEYS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH
THE NIGHT. WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL
PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. AREAS OF LATE NIGHT FOG WILL
LIKELY FORM IN NW COLORADO...EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR...AND ROARING FORK VALLEY.

UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BY WAY OF THE JET STREAM WILL HAVE SHIFTED
WELL TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY MORNING WHICH SHOULD CAUSE SNOWFALL UP
NORTH TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY. ACCORDING TO THE NAM AND GFS...SNOW
IS NOT OVER THOUGH AS FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS THEN KICK IN ALLOWING
SNOW TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF MONDAY ESPECIALLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS
AND FLAT TOPS. HOWEVER...THE VERY SHORT RANGE MODELS...TO INCLUDE
THE HRRR AND RAP13...SHOW PRECIP DWINDLING THROUGH THE DAY WITH
ONLY MINIMAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. WITH H7 WINDS COMING FROM THE
NORTHWEST...OROGRAPHICS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE IN PLAY SO THE
GOING ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. LATER SHIFTS CAN REASSESS
AND PULL DOWN EARLY IF NEEDED.

THE REST OF THE CWA WILL SEE WARMING TEMPS MONDAY WITH MANY AREAS
SEEING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. AREAS DOWN SOUTH WILL LIKELY SEE MORE
SUN THAN CLOUDS WHILE MTNS WILL SEE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

BY NOON TUESDAY...SNOWFALL WILL HAVE ENDED AS HEIGHT RISES
INDICATE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
CONTROL FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING OVERHEAD FROM TIME TO TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THEIR WARM TREND FOR A NICE START TO THE WORK WEEK.

STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND EC HIGHLIGHT AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE WEST COAST BRINGING PLENTY OF PRECIP
TO NRN CALIF UP INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. HOWEVER...THE CLOSED LOW
FILLS IN AND MOVES NORTH WHILE THE ASSOD TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE
EASTWARD. THERE IS SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THIS FEATURE AS
THE JET STREAM CARRIES THIS WAVE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AS
THE WAVE MOVES EAST...THE JET BECOMES MORE EAST TO WEST ORIENTED
WHICH WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE AREA. MODELS
SUGGEST INCREASED CLOUDS THURSDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS THROUGH THE
DAY. THE HEAVIEST PRECIP LOOKS TO FALL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AGAIN FAVORING THE NRN AND CENTRAL
MTNS...FLAT TOPS...AND POSSIBLY THE GRAND MESA. BECAUSE OF THE JET
ORIENTATION THOUGH...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH A QUICK 6 HRS OF HEAVIER
PRECIP BEFORE IT SHUTS OFF ABRUPTLY BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. A FEW MORE
MODEL RUNS WILL INCREASE CONFIDENCE WITH EVOLUTION OF SYSTEM.

AFTER THAT...A WEAK WAVE LOOKS TO MOVE OVER THE CWA SATURDAY
BRINGING VERY LIGHT PRECIP TO THE AREA BEFORE IT QUICKLY SHIFTS
EASTWARD.

EXPECT A NICE START TO THE WORK WEEK BEFORE MORE PRECIP ENTERS
THE PICTURE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE WHICH WILL BE NICE FRO MID-FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 417 PM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO IMPACT AREAS OF WESTERN COLORADO FROM
RABBIT EARS PASS SOUTH TO VAIL PASS. ANOTHER AREA OF SNOW WILL
IMPACT KEGE AND KASE THROUGH ABOUT 04Z. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
BY 06Z AT MANY LOCATIONS...STRONG NW WINDS AT AND ABOVE MTN TOP
LEVEL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. AFTER 12Z SNOW WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE MTNS ALONG AND NORTH OF VAIL PASS INTO WYOMING.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY MONDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     COZ004-005-013.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR COZ010.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE/TGR
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT


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