Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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FXUS64 KHUN 272247 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
547 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

For 00Z TAFs.


 (Issued 233 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016)
The 19z surface analysis indicated that the lower layers were mixing
out with dewpoint temps falling to around 60 degrees across the
forecast area. Some subsidence was indicated by surface obs and
IR/Visible satellite imagery across the region as well. There was
still some isolated showers/storms forming across west central
Alabama and along the northeast Alabama/north Georgia border. Expect
in the near term tonight that there will continue to be some
scattered shower/storm development this evening, especially in
northeast Alabama and in our Tennessee counties. A weakening short
wave at 500 millibars is progged by the short term models to move
into northwest Alabama toward Saturday morning, so will continue with
at least a slight chance/chance pop for showers/storms overnight

For Saturday, forecast soundings indicate that increased PWAT values
during the morning along with slightly unstable conditions will lead
to a chance of showers/storms during the day as the short wave moves
across the forecast area. Subsidence is expected to take shape in the
wake of the short wave across the area by Saturday night and will go
with clearing skies after a slight chance pop early Saturday evening.
The models are in good agreement involving shifting winds around to
the northwest behind the short wave and weak frontal boundary
moving through the forecast area by Sunday. Drier air is expected to
move into the region in the mid to upper levels on Sunday and will
only account for just a slight chance diurnal pop for Sunday through
Tuesday afternoon and into early Tuesday evening. Will go slightly
warmer than the GFS temps through this time period and more in line
with the warmer ECMWF temp guidance.

As we head further into the extended forecast time frame from
Wednesday through next Friday, the ridge axis is progged by the
ECMWF/GFS models to shift east of the region. This will result in
low level winds shifting around to the south and we can expect a slow
increase in low level moisture. Will continue with higher chance pops
for Wednesday through Friday as the models attempt to bring a cold
front southeast through the southern plains extending through the
lower Ohio valley region on Wednesday and Thursday. By Friday, the
cold front should be moving southeast into middle Tennessee and
closer to the forecast area. Have followed closer toward ECMWF temp
guidance through the end of the extended forecast periods.



For 00Z TAFs: VFR conditions are forecast during the next 24 hours.
Weak upper air disturbances will produce cigs AOA ~120agl thru
Saturday. Scattered cumulus development is also anticipated,
especially during the daylight hours. Isolated to scattered -SHRA
and -TSRA are possible, but have kept out of the TAFs due to the low
probability at KMSL or KHSV proper.


.HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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