Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KHUN 230124
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
824 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO FCST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE IS CURRENTLY BUILDING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WHILE A
CLOSED UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER NERN GA. EAST OF THE UPPER LOW WAS
SCT CONVECTION WITH MORE COVERAGE OVER FL. ACROSS OUR CWA WERE CLR
SKIES/LIGHT WINDS AND A VERY DRY AIR MASS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S. THUS SEE NO REASON TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FCST
ATTM. EXPECT QUIET CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH MRNG LOWS ARND 50.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 624 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 216 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014/
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI AT 19Z
THIS AFTERNOON WAS FILTERING IN MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. TEMPS WERE STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
WITH GENERALLY UPPER 40S DEWPOINTS. THIS COOL AIR MASS MADE IT TO THE
REGION JUST IN TIME FOR THE OFFICIAL BEGINNING OF THE FALL SEASON.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SLOWLY MOVING THE LARGE RIDGE
AXIS THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE EASTWARD AND EXPANDING IT SOUTHWEST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO TEMPS...AS BELIEVE THAT DRY
ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH RECENT DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN A DECENT
DIURNAL TEMP CHANGE. WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY INCREASE TEMPS WITH TIME DUE
TO CONTINUED EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW. HAVE FOLLOWED TOWARD THE COOLER END
OF THE MODEL TEMP GUIDANCE AND MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST TIME PERIODS.

BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS INDICATE THAT
A SHORT WAVE AT 500 MILLIBARS AND A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN GULF TOWARD WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI BY
00Z MONDAY. HAVE DROPPED THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR
SATURDAY DUE TO THE MODELS BEING MORE IN PHASE WITH SLOWING DOWN THE
EXIT OF THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE/
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM IS
PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY MONDAY. WILL KEEP TEMPS CLOSE TO GUIDANCE NUMBERS THROUGH
THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.