Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 031831
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
131 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLD CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG SAND MOUNTAIN, NEAR AN INVERTED
TROF WHICH EXTENDED NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS IN AN AREA
OF ML CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG. THE AIR WAS MUCH MORE STABLE WEST
OF THE TROF IN NWRN AL AND SRN TN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE
UPPER LOW MEANDERING OVER THE SRN SMOKY MOUNTAINS, WITH DRY AND
SUBSIDING AIR W OF THE CIRCULATION. WILL MAINTAIN A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST THRU THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TRACKING E.
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS,
SEVERAL SMALL SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO RIDE OVER THE RIDGE BACK
INTO THE SERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO DROP INTO THE
OZARKS AND MID SOUTH REGIONS, POSSIBLY REACHING OUR FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME RATHER UNSTABLE, BUT OVERALL
SYNOPTIC FORCING IS RATHER WEAK. THUS, AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY TSTMS
REMAINS AN UNCERTAINTY, SO WILL KEEP THE GOING CHC POPS IN PLACE. MOS
TEMPS FORECASTS APPEAR A BIT TOO WARM THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS, SO WENT A
FEW DEGREES BELOW.

THE WEAKENING UPPER TROF POSN OVER THE SERN U.S. INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO BECOMES LESS AND LESS DEFINABLE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE
RIDGE IN THE PLAINS BECOMES MORE SUPRESSED, ESPECIALLY BY THE GFS.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND HIGHER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR ON
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. REMAINS
STRONGER PER THE ECMWF AND WEAKER VIA THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN
VARIANCE IN FORECAST TEMPS AMONGST THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECWMF
MOS (ALSO NOTED IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE MOS AS WELL). WILL CONTINUE TO
GO CLOSE TO SUGGESTED BLENDED GUIDANCE GIVEN THESE UNCERTAINIES.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1234 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...

VFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST WITH MVFR CIGS
LIKELY AT KMSL UNTIL 19Z AS AN UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES OFF TO THE
NE. VCTS WAS RETAINED FOR KHSV THROUGH 04/01Z GIVEN CLOSER PROXIMITY
TO POSSIBLE -TSRA FORMING OVER NE AL. THEN, AFTER 04/01Z ANOTHER LOW
CLOUD DECK WILL ACTUALLY DROP LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS BTWN
04/08Z-04/12Z ESPECIALLY OVER NE AL. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD THEN SCATTER
AFTER 04/12Z TO VFR.

SL.77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    61  84  65  87 /  10  20  10  20
SHOALS        61  84  65  87 /  10  10  10  10
VINEMONT      61  82  65  85 /  10  20  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  60  81  63  84 /  20  30  10  20
ALBERTVILLE   60  81  64  85 /  20  30  10  20
FORT PAYNE    61  81  63  84 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.


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