Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 061110
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
510 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 140 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/
WATER VAPOR AND IR IMAGERY DEPICTED A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROFS
DIGGING INTO OK/TX. A WEAKER WAVE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE PUSHING
THRU THE TN VALLEY IN ADVANCE OF THE TROF EARLY THIS MORNING. UPPER
RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES WAS FOLLOWED CLOSE
BEHIND WITH THE NEXT STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE PAC NW. THIS IS
THE WAVE THAT DIGS A HIGHER AMPLITUDE TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

FOR TODAY AND SUNDAY, WE EXPECT DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER.
TODAY`S HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST BY LATE TONIGHT AS THE
SHORTWAVE/UPPER LOW TRACK THRU TN/AL. LOW TO MID LEVELS WILL BE FAR
TOO DRY TO SUPPORT PRECIP DESPITE DECENT -DIVQ SUPPORTED LIFT. HIGH
TEMPS ON SUNDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND WESTERLY FLOW GENERATED WARM
ADVECTION WILL REACH THE M-U50S.

AS THE UPPER TROF DIGS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGHT,
CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL
GENERATE A BAND OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT.
NAM AND ECWMF MOISTURE FIELDS REMAIN RATHER PALTRY, THUS A DRIER
FORECAST THAN THE GFS. FOR CONSISTENCY, HAVE MAINTAINED A 20-30 POP
AFT 06Z MONDAY MORNING FOR -RA. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE LOWER ATMO
AND WET BULB PROFILES APPEAR WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY PRECIP THAT DOES
MANAGE TO FALL AS -SHRA.

MID-UPPER -DIVQ FIELDS MAY SUPPORT LIFT MONDAY OVER TN AND FAR NRN
AL, AND UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ALONG THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU WON`T HURT EITHER. -SHRA MAY MIX WITH -SHSN ATOP THE HIGHER
PLATEAU AREAS AS EARLY AS 18Z, WITH A MIX POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT
AREAWIDE BEFORE 00Z. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SLIGHT SBCAPE VALUES OF
25-50J/KG MAINTAINED INTO EARLY MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, AREAL
COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERY PRECIP REMAINS IN QUESTION, SO HAVE KEPT
POPS IN THE LOW CHC RANGE IN NRN AL AND HIGHER CHC RANGE IN SRN TN.
-SHSN WILL LINGER LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS WELL, ESPECIALLY
OUR NERN COUNTIES. THIS IS AS THE COLDEST POCKET OF AIR AT 850 MB
WITH -12-14C ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER,
THERE IS A BIT OF AN INVERSION THAT SETS UP BETWEEN 5-8KFT, SO LAPSE
RATES/CAPE WILL NOT BE AS SUPPORTIVE FOR SUBSTANTIAL SHSN.
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT FORECAST AT THIS POINT, BUT CERTAINLY SOMETHING
TO MONITOR, ESPECIALLY FOR OUR CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AREAS.

THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW WILL BECOME NWLY BY WED-THU NEXT WEEK WITH
THE COLDER AIRMASS RAPIDLY RETREATING TO THE NE. IN FACT, THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS DEPICT PRECIP IN THE MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ZONE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FROM IL THRU KY/ERN TN. HAVE GONE WITH
A DRY FORECAST ATTM, BUT ACKNOWLEDGING THIS PATTERN TRANSITION LATER
NEXT WEEK COULD EASILY DEVIATE SOME.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.


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