Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 311931
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
231 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW AND SHORT WAVE
FROM YESTERDAY HAS RESULTED IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OCCURRING THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WERE RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER
80S AT 19Z. EXPECT LOW TO MID CLOUDS TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE
TONIGHT...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL TO GUIDANCE NUMBERS BY 12Z
TUESDAY. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH ENOUGH CAPPING OCCURRING AS PER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS TO BASICALLY KEEP THE MENTION OF SHRA/TSRA OUT OF THE
FORECAST. BY FRIDAY...THE ECMWF MODEL INDICATES THAT THERE SHOULD BE
INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VIA TIME SECTIONS/FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP IN A MENTION OF A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.

BY SATURDAY...THE GFS MODEL AND TO A LESSER EXTENT...THE ECMWF
MODEL...BOTH DEPICT THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
SOUTHWEST DOWN THE APPALACHIANS FROM VIRGINIA THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOW INCREASE IN CHANCE POPS FROM NORTHEAST
ALABAMA...EXTENDING WESTWARD BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE INVERTED
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEDGE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHEAST ALABAMA BY
SUNDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCE POPS FORECAST AREA WIDE FROM SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS SLIGHTLY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM. HAVE KEPT TEMPS CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
VALUES THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1154 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS... CIGS THAT ARE RUNNING MVFR (015-030AGL) WILL EITHER
LIFT OR SCATTER OUT VERY SOON, SO HAVE GONE WITH VFR BEGINNING AT
18Z. AN ISOLATED SHRA OR TSRA IS PSBL, BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST.  WE SHOULD SEE A CLEARING TREND AFTER DAYTIME HEATING
CEASES. EITHER BR OR LOW CIG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IN EITHER ONE IS LOW, BUT HAVE OPTED FOR A TEMPO PERIOD OF
RADIATION FOG (4-5SM BR / MVFR) FROM 09-12Z GIVEN EXPECTED
HEATING/DRYING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    67  93  69  94 /  10  10  10  10
SHOALS        67  91  69  93 /  10  10  10  10
VINEMONT      67  89  69  90 /  10  10  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  66  89  67  90 /  10  10  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   67  89  69  89 /  10  10  10  10
FORT PAYNE    66  88  67  90 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.


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