Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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FXUS64 KHUN 291136 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
636 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 330 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/
WEAK RIDGE PATTERN IS IN PLACE OVER THE GULF REGION THIS EARLY FRI
MORNING...TRANSLATING TO QUIET WX CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CNTRL TN
VALLEY. THIS WILL BE CHANGING THOUGH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WITH A
FEW CLOUDS ALREADY BEGINNING TO SPREAD BACK INTO NW AL FROM THE W.
THE FIRST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY
EVENING HAS STALLED/WEAKENED INVOF CNTRL AL/MS...WITH A SECOND SFC
BOUNDARY POSITIONED N OF THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
SWWD INTO SRN OK/NRN TX. THERE`S QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE LATEST
MODEL SUITES WITH THE DEVELOPING WX PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HRS.
IN THE SHORT TERM AT LEAST...CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM W TO E THROUGH THE DAY...AS AFTERNOON TEMPS WARM INTO
THE LOWER/MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

BEST GUESS THEN IS THAT THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER WAVES
BEGINS TO TRAVERSE OVER THE AREA...AS THE FLOW PATTERN TURNS MORE
TOWARD THE SW. ISO SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD EWD INTO NW AL
THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE PRECIP COVERAGE BECOMES MORE SCT IN
NATURE THIS EVENING...AS THE DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE S LIFTS
BACK TO THE N AS A WARM FRONT. LOW LEVEL BUOYANCY/SHEAR MAY BE
MAXIMIZED JUST ENOUGH ALONG THE NWD MOVING WARM FRONT THIS EVENING
TO RESULT IN A FEW STRONG TSTMS...CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS.

THE UNSETTLED WX PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND PERIOD...AS
A STRONG SFC LOW SLOWLY BEGINS TO TRANSLATE ENEWD OUT OF THE SRN
PLAINS. AS THIS DEVELOPS...THE ATTENDANT SFC LOW WILL DRAG AN EVEN
STRONGER COLD FRONT TO THE E...WITH THE BOUNDARY SLATED TO CROSS THE
LOCAL AREA SUN INTO SUN EVENING. SHOWERS/TSTMS LOOK TO BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT SAT NIGHT/SUN...WITH
SOME OF THIS RAINFALL POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES ON SUN. IN ADDITION TO
THIS...WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE APPROACHING FRONT COUPLED WITH
INCREASING SBCAPE VALUES IN THE 2-3K J/KG RANGE DURING THE DAY SUN
MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG/MARGINALLY SVR TSTMS...CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL AND BRIEF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE LACK OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL
DEEP LAYER SHEAR/UPPER FORCING THOUGH SHOULD LIMIT A MORE WIDESPREAD
THREAT OF SVR TSTMS. RAINFALL SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM
THE W SUN NIGHT...AS THE FRONT EXITS TO THE S/E.

HOWEVER...SOME ADDITIONAL ENERGY WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SRN
STREAM FLOW MAY TRANSLATE INTO A FEW MORE SHOWERS/TSTMS MON INTO
TUE...BEFORE RAINFALL COMPLETELY EXITS BY WED. QUIET AND MORE
SEASONAL LIKE TEMPS/WX ARE THEN XPCTED FOR THE MID/LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK...AS A STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SEWD INTO MUCH
OF THE REGION THU INTO FRI.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...
VFR WEATHER IS FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE MID AFTERNOON. THAT
BEING SAID...ISOLATED CONVECTION INVOF KMSL COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF
VIS/CIG REDUCTION AT THE TERMINAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND IN THE
EVENING...AS SHOWER ACTIVITY AFFECTS NW ALABAMA. DRY WEATHER SHOULD
OTHERWISE CONTINUE INTO THE LATE NIGHT ELSEWHERE. LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING SHOULD BECOME SE AROUND 5KT BY AROUND 16Z...THEN S-SW 5-15KT
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT FROM THE SE AFTER SUNSET.
BRIEF AND ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE INVOF SHOWERS THAT FORM.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.


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