Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 232336
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
736 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 730 pM EDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Isolated thunderstorms are possible this evening...mainly over
northwest Indiana. Chances for storms will increase over much of
the area late tonight and on Sunday ahead of a cold front This
front is expected to move across the area Sunday night and Monday
with storms again possible along and ahead of the front. Slightly cooler
and less humid conditions expected by Tuesday and Wednesday.
Highs Sunday are expected to be in the lower 90s with lows
tonight in the lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 156 PM EDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Convective complex currently moving through the upper MS valley as
short wave energy from the plains impinges on upper ridge this
afternoon. Latest Meso-analysis indicating sharp instability and
Theta-E gradient and expect complex to continue eastward into the
great lakes region along this boundary. HIRES guidance suggesting
southern edge of this complex may clip our far N/NW CWA later
tonight so will follow current forecast of chance/slight chance POPs
in this area.

Cold front approaching the region on Sunday will provide synoptic
scale forcing to act on unstable warm sector airmass to bring
another chance for thunderstorms to the area. Debris clouds from
previous nights convection may initially hinder destabilization but
still expect CAPE in excess of 3000J/kg by late afternoon. Despite
good instability expect a weakly sheared environment to limit any
severe potential. Areal coverage still somewhat in question so will
keep POPs in chance range. With additional cloud cover expected
Sunday will hold off on any further heat advisories for now and see
how nocturnal convection evolves...have adjusted maxT down a degree
or two to account for this.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 156 PM EDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Frontal passage may linger into Monday for the southern CWA as front
becomes more E-W oriented. Models also have varying solutions for
timing of front to clear our area so will continue with small chance
in the south. High pressure then builds into the region on Tuesday
and will bring temps back into the 80s and closer to normal along
with less humid conditions which will allow for more comfortable
overnight lows in the mid 60s. Upper flow becomes more zonal and
will keep temps near normal for the remainder of the forecast
period. Pacific energy streaming in on zonal flow will bring precip
chances back into the forecast by the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 728 PM EDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Nearly stationary storm near KSBN has been backbuilding west and
expect thunderstorm at airport next hour or two. Additional storms
upstream across IL will work east and could get into KSBN toward
04z. More uncertainty at KFWA depending on if upstream complex
holds together and its track. This throws uncertainty into
thunderstorm chances for Sunday with cold front depending on how
much cloud cover remains. Kept tsra chances out of forecast
tomorrow given uncertainty in development and timing.


&&

.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.

MI...NONE.
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ001-002-004-005-
     015-016-024-025.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lashley
SHORT TERM...JAL
LONG TERM...JAL
AVIATION...Lashley


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