Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 281045

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
645 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016

Issued at 343 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016

High pressure will advance off to the east today allowing warmer
southerly flow to overspread the area. A cold front will drop into
the area Saturday night bringing a chance of rain, followed by
cooler temperatures for Sunday. Highs today will range from the
upper 50s in lower Michigan to the mid 60s in central Indiana.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 343 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016

Sfc ridge centered over ern IL early this morning will rapidly
shift off into wrn PA late this aftn ahead of low pressure
advancing ewd through the upper midwest. In between strong low
level warm advection to result on backside of ridge with
significant low level thermal ridge rapidly overspreading newd
across the wrn lakes. While cirrus spill over through upper ridge
may retard deeper mixing this aftn...hard to argue not blending
warmer esp west given degree of warming aloft.

Warm sector deepens further through Sat as frontal zone sags into
nrn zones by late aftn. Little drop off tonight expected as modest
swrly gradient flow develops downstream of advancing frontal system
advancing into the wrn lakes. This then sets the stage for a very
warm Sat aftn as mixed layer deepens further along with
compressional warming swd of frontal zone. Will blend temps higher
here as well.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 343 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016

High zonal flow to continue southward of active nrn stream flow
through srn Canada this period. Series of generaly low amplitude
disturbances and accompanying sfc boundaries look devoid of any
significant low level moisture return not to mention northward
track of appreciable dynamical forcing. However exception remains
late Sat night into Sun morning tied to frontogenetical response
developing within coupled jet structure aloft over the western
lakes northward of stalling OH river frontal zone. Deterministic
run continuity has improved since yda with continued consensus
signals good enough to follow a blended pop solution which also
fits in favoring nrn/nern areas with highest chcs. Otherwise brief
cooldown Sun followed strong moderation through the remainder of
the period along with another chc of rain toward late Wed.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 645 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016

Latest hi-res forecast soundings continue to suggest MVFR stratus
may hold on at KSBN through the morning given sufficient moisture
trapped under sharp inversion. Did push back timing of VFR a bit
but still expect improvement by late morning as backing wind
advects drier air into the region, along with some (limited)
insolation/diurnal mixing. MVFR BR at KFWA also expected to
dissipate within the next few hours as diurnal heating commences.
Otherwise, VFR conditions anticipated through the end of the
period. Chance for some MVFR ceilings early Saturday morning as
LLJ cranks up and advects theta-e plume into the Southern Great
Lakes but confidence is too low for any mention at this time


LM...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 PM EDT
     Saturday for LMZ043-046.




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