Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 310140
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
840 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
PRESSURE DATA FROM THE 0Z RELEASE WAS COMING IN SUSPECT AT
TIMES... BUT THE SMOOTHED TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRACES STILL
APPEAR REPRESENTATIVE OF CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. RAIN COOLED AIR
AT THE SFC HAS RESULTED IN AN INVERSION LAYER UP TO ABOUT 875 MB.
ABOVE THIS THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL UNSTABLE WITH 1900 J/KG MU
CAPE. INDEED THERE ARE STORMS ONGOING IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
ANOTHER ELEVATED INVERSION LAYER AT 550 MB IS INDICATIVE
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT FROM BEING UNDER THE EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. PW IS ABOVE AVERAGE AT 2.22 INCHES AND WINDS ARE
NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE PROFILE.

KRAUTMANN

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

UPDATE...

UPDATED HOURLY TEMP AND DEW POINT GRIDS TO HANDLE CURRENT TRENDS
RELATED TO CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. ALLOWED HEAT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS
OUTFLOW HAS COOLED EVERYONE IN THE ADVISORY OFF. ALSO LOWERED MIN
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES TO MIRROR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

AVIATION...

WILL HOLD ONTO CONVECTION AT MOST TERMINALS UNTIL 02Z-03Z BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR. SHOULD BE VFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. EXPECT
REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION BY LATE MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS
EXCEPT KMCB. 35

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY NEAR INTERSTATE 20 AND SINKING ONLY
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 10-12 CORRIDOR MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST. WHERE IT IS NOT
RAINING...TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 90S WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S. HEAT INDEX READINGS FROM 105 TO 113
IN MANY AREAS...WHICH PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A HEAT ADVISORY
EARLIER.

SHORT TERM...

QUESTION OF THE DAY IS EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT GETS BEFORE
STALLING OUT. THE FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT TO NEAR THE COAST...BUT
DRIER AIR LAGS THE FRONT AT THE SURFACE BY ABOUT 150 MILES. WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS TONIGHT AS CONVECTION LIKELY TO HANG ON UNTIL
02Z OR SO. FIRING POINT FOR CONVECTION WILL BE SOMEWHAT FURTHER
SOUTH TOMORROW AND WILL KEEP NORTHWEST SECTIONS DRY...WITH CHANCE
POPS FURTHER SOUTH. FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY TO BE LIMITED TO SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA...AND NOT MUCH MORE
THAN 20-30 POPS.

HIGHS FOR FRIDAY MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TODAY...BUT
NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF COOLING. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S. WILL NOT GO QUITE AS COOL
ON LOWS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING AS MET GUIDANCE WOULD
INDICATE...CLOSER TO MAV GUIDANCE. THAT WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE LAST FEW MORNINGS. WITH LOWER DEW POINTS...SHOULD
AVOID HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY A FEW DEGREES. WILL NOT GO QUITE
AS LOW ON DEW POINTS AS NUMERICAL GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE. 35

LONG TERM...

UPPER RIDGING APPEARS TO ANCHOR OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY WILL ALLOW IMPULSES TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA...WITH A ROUND
OR TWO OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY. HAVE RAISED
POPS SOMEWHAT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS GFS
GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE. DRY AIR WILL WASH OUT EARLY IN THE WEEK
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REBOUND TO NEAR CURRENT LEVELS BY MONDAY
OR TUESDAY. 35

AVIATION...

BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HRS. SHRA
AND TSRA WILL LIKELY IMPACT ALL TERMINALS AT SOME POINT THROUGH
2Z. AFTER THAT CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OR PUSH SOUTH WITH VFR
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED. /CAB/

MARINE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE MARINE FCST. GENERAL LIGHT TO MODERATE
WINDS EXPECTED TO ENTIRE TIME WITH WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 12 KTS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING BUT WILL STALL THERE AND THEN LOSE
ITS IDENTITY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAY ISSUES TO RECREATIONAL
BOATING WILL BE CONVECTION AS SCT SHRA AND TSRA ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY LEADING TO LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS...SEAS...AND EVEN WATERSPOUTS.
/CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO DONALDSONVILLE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  76  94  70  94 /  30  10   0   0
BTR  77  96  71  95 /  30  20  10   0
ASD  79  94  74  93 /  40  30  20  10
MSY  81  93  79  93 /  40  30  20  20
GPT  79  92  75  92 /  40  30  20  20
PQL  78  92  74  92 /  40  30  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


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