Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 171010
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
410 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...

Not as much in the way of fog this morning although there are a
few sites reporting 1/2 mile visibilities. Overall, the coverage
of the fog is not as bad and therefore will not issue any
advisories this morning.

Otherwise, no significant changes made to the forecast in respect
to the weekend and the cold front that should be moving into the
northwestern parts of the area by Saturday afternoon and moving
through the southern parts by Saturday night.

.LONG TERM...

Model guidance has come into a little better agreement with
respect to what happens after the frontal passage early next week.
While there are still some overall differences, more of the
anticipated rainfall from a system over the Gulf stays off the
coast. Therefore, precipitation chances have been lowered a bit
early next week in some locations, especially further away from
the coast.

&&

.AVIATION...

Fog development this morning is slower than yesterday. At 3 am,
dense fog with visibility less than a mile was confined at KHUM and
lower Lafourche parish. The KHUM AWOS continue to falsely report
heavy rain instead of fog. KMSY and KGPT are expected to drop to MVFR
category, and KBTR, KHDC and KASD are forecast to drop to IFR.
All airports will return to VFR by around 15z, then patchy fog is
expected again late Friday night into early Saturday morning.

&&

.MARINE...

The biggest impact to mariners will occur start Saturday and
continue through Sunday night. A strong cold front is expected to
push across the coastal waters Saturday evening. Increased gradient
flow from the south and southwest in advance of the approaching
front will push winds into exercise caution range Saturday morning
through Saturday evening. After the front passes, winds will quickly
shift to the northwest, and will also increase into Small Craft
Advisory and possibly Gale Warning range. If gales occur, they will
be most likely from late Saturday night into Sunday morning when
boundary layer winds are expected to be strongest. Seas will also
increase as the winds rise to nearly 30 knots, and have placed seas
of 7 to 10 feet in the open Gulf waters from late Saturday night
into Sunday.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
         advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
         tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  77  60  78  42 /   0  10  30  40
BTR  78  62  79  45 /   0  10  30  40
ASD  76  60  79  42 /   0  10  10  50
MSY  77  64  79  49 /   0  10  10  40
GPT  72  62  75  45 /   0  10  10  40
PQL  75  59  77  43 /   0  10  10  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$



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