Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 172254
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
654 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

Weakening cold front is roughly along a line from KLOT to KSTL, with
just a few radar returns noted along it. This front will not make
much progress southeast overnight, as the upper trough behind it
splits into a separate upper low over the Arklatex and another
feature that heads by to our north. Models continue to come in drier
for rain chances Friday, thanks in part to this split keeping more
of the moisture down to our south with a storm developing along the
Gulf coast. We still will see increasing clouds, but have continued
the trend of backing off rain chances, now just isolated over the
northwest third of the forecast area.

As for temperatures, higher dewpoints today and increasing clouds
overnight should mean warmer lows, likely in the 40s for most
places. Highs tomorrow should be similar to today, even with the
cloud coverage, given the warmer start to the day. Readings Friday
night will depend on how strong of a northeasterly flow we set up on
the back side of that storm system mentioned above, which by
daybreak Saturday looks to be along the Georgia coast. For now have
readings a few degrees warmer than tonights.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

The latest guidance continues to indicate a warming trend through
the long-term period, as 850 hPa temperatures and 1000-500 hPa
thicknesses increase across the Ohio Valley. The only bump in the
road will be with a frontal passage late Monday and Tuesday, but
this should be a minor event with no major hazardous weather
expected.

This weekend will feature temperatures in the low to middle 70s
Saturday and middle to upper 70s Sunday, with both days having
mostly sunny skies and light winds. Should be a great weekend for
outdoor activities. Clouds will increase late Sunday as our next
weather system approaches the Middle Mississippi Valley.

A progressive upper wave and associated weak surface trough will
push through the Ohio Valley Monday night into Tuesday. Scattered
showers with perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms will be possible
Monday into Tuesday. The cold front will push to our east by Tuesday
night and we turn dry through Thursday, as ridging builds across the
region. Temperatures should be in the 70s for much of next week.
Tuesday appears to be the coolest day with highs in the lower 70s,
with Thursday appearing to be the warmest day with highs around 80.
Overnight lows in the 50s will be common.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 650 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

A weakening front will approach from the northwest tonight. Winds
will become light and variable this evening and continue that way
through tomorrow as the front slowly moves into the area. Cirrus
will continue to stream over the area tonight with a scattered to
broken cu deck developing tomorrow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........MJP
Aviation..........EER





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