Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 240520
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1220 AM EST Tue Jan 24 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 733 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

Measurable rain has ended across the LMK CWA and little if any
additional is expected, so will go with just some patchy drizzle in
the Blue Grass for the rest of the night. No other changes.

&&

.Short Term (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 310 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

Expansive upper level low will exit off the mid Atlantic Coast
overnight, however low level moisture will continue to linger. As a
result, will continue to see some drizzle chances as well as small
chances at measurable rain through the evening. Most of this
activity should be along and east of I-65, with the best chances for
measurable along the I-75 corridor. Will also mention patchy fog
mainly along and east of I-65 tonight. Temps currently in the 45 to
50 degree range should fall into the 35 to 40 degree range by dawn
on Tuesday.

Progressive upper ridge moves overhead Tomorrow and tomorrow night
with a dry forecast expected. We`ll likely have trouble getting rid
of low clouds in the morning, but optimistic that we could see some
breaks by afternoon. If this scenario plays out, expect highs around
50. If not breaks occur, we may end up staying in the 40s.

Steady S flow stays up on Tuesday night, and with increasing sky
cover a pretty small diurnal range will occur. Look for lows mostly
in the 40 to 45 degree range.

.Long Term (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 310 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

Wednesday...

Storm system moves across the Great Lakes and drags a moisture
starved cold front through our area on Wednesday. Not expecting
much, if any, rainfall with this frontal passage but do expect gusty
winds. In fact, gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range are expected. Enjoy
Wednesday temperatures in the upper 50s to around 60, because
temperatures fall behind it.

Wednesday Night - Monday...

We`ll switch to a cooler and more "winter-like" pattern to end the
week as overall troughiness envelops the NE CONUS. NW flow aloft
will dominate over the Ohio River Valley, with several disturbances
passing through the flow. At this point, chances for rain or snow
showers (depending on time of day) will be greatest across our far
NE where the best moisture should be located. As we get into the
weekend, colder air becomes more established and snow showers may
become more likely. Of particular interest would be later Sunday,
where models generally agree on a potent system diving into the
region. The amount of available moisture is in question so won`t be
too detailed, but in general more widespread snowfall would be a
possibility.

Highs should generally be in the upper 30s to lower 40s each day.
Wednesday night lows will be in the mid 30s, with a cooler trend
Thursday night and beyond in the 20s. Overall, these temps are near
climo, but slightly below.

&&

.Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1217 AM EST Tue Jan 24 2017

The low stratus deck across the region will continue to hang in
through the night and into mid day tomorrow. LIFR conditions and
light fog remain through at least daybreak at LEX. There will be a
slow increase from late morning into the afternoon hours. SDF has
kept ceilings above 1000 feet so far tonight. Guidance does suggest
they could drop below this threshold for a few hours this morning.
LOU has also dropped to 900 feet, so have added in a few hours of
lower cigs for SDF this morning. BWG should stay MVFR but below fuel
alternate through the night.

Guidance continue to suggest that the ceilings will break up and
lift to VFR during the afternoon to early evening hours. Winds will
shift from northwesterly to southerly today.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

Update...13
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation...EER


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