Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 250130
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
930 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2014

...Updated Aviation and Forecast Discussions...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 925 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2014

Some low cloudiness will arrive sometime tomorrow, but, overnight,
expect mostly clear skies with just some occasional high cirrus
clouds passing by.

Nearly calm winds in protected valley and river basins may allow
some fog to form towards the pre-dawn hours. Fog formation will be
most likely towards the Tennessee border and the Lake Cumberland
Region.


.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 311 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2014

An upper vort max is now centered over eastern KY, with our CWA
generally in a subsident regime behind this feature. Most of the
clouds have thinned and scattered, however a few clouds will remain
in the region for the afternoon and evening. Temperatures are
currently in the low and mid 60s, with a few locations likely on
their way to the upper 60s.

Do expect a mostly clear night, however do have potential for some
variable cloudiness at times, especially toward dawn. Will only
mention patchy fog coverage across our eastern and southeastern
zones, closest to the center of the surface high and far enough
removed from the light gradient winds that will pick up toward dawn.
Do expect to have a fairly wide range in low temperatures with the
coolest air across our eastern CWA in the low and mid 40s. Our NW
CWA will be milder around 50 for lows as some low clouds and a light
SW wind should take over toward dawn.

Will see a batch of lower clouds move into the area around sunrise
ahead of a weak frontal boundary that is set to move through later
tomorrow. Moisture looks just deep enough across southern Indiana
that we could squeeze out a sprinkle, however without the presence
of a stronger forcing mechanism would prefer to leave any mention
out for now. Otherwise, expect sky cover to go from mostly cloudy in
the morning, to seeing some breaks in the afternoon, especially in
our west. This will make out temperature forecast a bit tricky as
temperatures will be somewhat dependent on how much sun we see. Will
get an steady warm advective component ahead of the front also so
still feel pretty good about mostly low and mid 70s across the
region. A few NE counties in the Bluegrass may be confined to the
upper 60s.

The frontal boundary passes late tomorrow afternoon into the evening with
little more than a wind shift. Expect a mostly clear night with lows
mostly in the 45-50 range.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2014

The long term will feature a fairly active pattern in generally a
meridional flow across the CONUS which looks to become more
amplified toward the end of next week.

Sun/Mon look to be dry with warmer than normal temps as surface high
pressure and upper level ridging rule the region.  Mon (highs in the
lower 80s) will be noticeably warmer than Sun (highs in the 70s) due
to gusty southwest winds in return flow on the back side of the sfc
high pressure.  These winds will advect in unseasonably warm air
which may come close to record high temps on the 27th and record
warm low temps on the 28th.  Here are those records:

               Record Max for Oct 27     Record Warm Low for Oct 28
Louisville        84 (1940)               64 (1991 and previous yrs)
Lexington         87 (1940)               64 (1984)
Bowling Green     87 (1919)               65 (1984)
Frankfort         89 (1940)               61 (1899)

Clouds will be on the increase Tues with a cold front bringing rain
to the region late Tues into Wed.  This front looks to bring a band
of light, slow moving rain with a few rumbles of thunder through the
area mainly Tues night, but extending into Wed morning across south
central KY.  QPF amounts are expected to total less than a quarter
inch from this rainfall.  Temps should still warm solidly into the
mid 70s for highs Tues afternoon and then falling back into the
lower 60s for highs Wed afternoon.

For the end of the week, expect generally a cool pattern to dominate
as ridging builds over the Rockies with troughing over the Midwest
in response to this amplification.  Another light precipitation
chance may accompany an upper level shortwave trough in the
Thurs/Fri time frame.  Some long range models indicate a good cold
shot of air for next weekend (Nov 1 and 2) which may result in a
killing freeze for agricultural interests.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 705 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2014

Mostly clear skies will prevail overnight with just some passing
high level clouds. Some scattered lower level clouds may develop
during the afternoon Saturday with possible broken ceilings later in
the day.

Winds will stay light tonight, generally from the south southwest at
under 6kt, while staying mostly calm at BWG.

Fog is once again likely at BWG with probable MVFR ceilings at BWG.
Brief IFR visibilities at BWG may develop during the pre-dawn hours.

Scattered to occasionally broken cloud cover is possible Saturday.
Winds will generally stay from the southwest at around 5 to 10 mph.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........JSD
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......JSD





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