Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 261919

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
319 PM EDT MON SEP 26 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2016

Rain showers continue to move east over portions of east central and
south central KY this afternoon.  They should clear the area by
early this evening.  An area of clouds behind the rain looks to
clear the area by late evening with most of the overnight hours
expected to be mostly clear.  With clearing skies in the post-
frontal airmass, we should see a good drop in temps with lows in the
mid 40s to around 50 degrees.

Sfc high pressure and a broad upper trough will dominate the region
for Tues resulting in mostly sunny skies and very fall-like
temperatures.  Highs will top out in the lower 70s Tues afternoon
with lows Tues night in the upper 40s/lower 50s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2016

Wednesday - Saturday...

An upper low will wobble down into the Ohio Valley from the upper
Midwest bringing cool and rainy conditions for the second half of
the week.  Rain chances will be maximized each afternoon/early
evening with better instability in the region.  Vorticity lobes
rotating around the upper low will help spark convection.

High temperatures will be on a downhill trend through Thu/Fri. With
the upper low wobbling very near or right over KY both days, expect
highs to be limited to the 60s both Thu/Fri...potentially colder.
Low temps should hold in the upper 40s/lower 50s each night
depending on cloud cover.

Sunday - Monday...

By early next week, models indicate the upper low will shift NNE out
of the region.  With this shift, a warm up in temps can be expected
as well as dry conditions.


.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 101 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2016

The cold front has passed through all the TAF sites and winds have
shifted to the northwest. Rain has ended at SDF and low clouds
should be moving out over the next couple of hours with the clearing
line moving through this afternoon. Rain will end at BWG over the
next half an hour or so, with ceilings improving as well. Rain at
LEX will persist through 19Z or so. Mostly clear skies are expected
overnight with light northwesterly winds. Winds will shift to more
westerly or WSW by mid morning tomorrow.


.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........AMS
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