Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 262304

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
604 PM EST Sun Feb 26 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 248 PM EST Sun Feb 26 2017

With clear skies today and a return to southerly flow, temperatures
have rebounded from lows in the teens and 20s this morning into the
mid 40s to low 50s. Clouds cover will be on the increase this
afternoon and evening, however, as a shortwave moving through the
upper level flow approaches. Rain will move in from the
southwest, mainly after midnight as this disturbance nears. The
rain will spread across the area through the morning and lift off to
the north in the afternoon. Much of the area does look to dry out
during the afternoon hours tomorrow.

For Monday night, a warm front will lift north across the region.
This will bring another chance for showers, again mainly after
midnight. Rainfall amounts tonight through tomorrow night look to be
up to a few tenths of an inch or so.

Temperatures tonight will be much milder than last night, dipping
into the upper 30s to around 40. Highs tomorrow should top out in
the mid to upper 50s. With the warm front moving north across the
area tomorrow night, it should be fairly mild, dropping into the mid
40s to around 50.

.Long Term...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 300 AM EST Sun Feb 26 2017

...Strong to Severe storms possible Tuesday evening through

The long term period will begin with a quite active and complicated
setup. Rounds of showers and storms will move through the area with
the potential for severe weather. Differences in timing of a cold
frontal passage and strength of multiple shortwaves and surface low
features complicate the forecast.

Starting off on Tuesday, scattered showers will likely be ongoing
from the overnight warm front passage. Development of instability
during the day could lead to some thunderstorms, though coverage
would likely be scattered, especially during the afternoon hours.

For Tuesday night into Wednesday, one of the main questions will be
the timing of the cold front moving through. The GFS and Canadian
are on the faster side of the guidance bringing it through Wednesday
morning while the NAM/ECMWF/SREF would favor mid day to the
afternoon. The slower solution would result in the development of
more instability during the day on Wednesday and could lead to
stronger storms along the front. The other question is the
development of storms overnight Tuesday as these slower models do
show a round of storms developing across the region well out ahead
of the front resulting in two rounds of storms. Regardless of which
solution pans out, models continue to depict 500-1500 J/kg CAPE
along with 40-50 knots of effective shear. Strong to severe storms
are certainly possible and expect we should get a better handle on
timing over the next few model runs.

Behind the front, much quieter weather is expected into the weekend.
A clipper system on Thursday night could bring a rain/snow mix to
portions of southern IN and the Bluegrass region of KY, but it
should move through quickly and have little impact. Temperatures
will cool down for the end of the week, but begin to rise again this
weekend as high pressure scoots east of the area and southerly flow


.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 615 PM EST Sun Feb 26 2017

Upper level weather system over the southwestern US will move
eastward and pick up Gulf moisture on its way toward the Ohio
Valley.  High clouds will continue to increase across the region
tonight and ceilings will start to lower overnight. Some scattered
showers will be possible across the region Monday morning with
period of MVFR ceilings.  Winds tonight will be light out of the SE
and then shift to the southwest during the day on Monday.




Short Term...EER
Long Term....EER
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