Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 220301
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1001 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT THE INCREASE IN THE CLOUDINESS
ACROSS THE REGION AND TO REFLECT THE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS...THE NAPLES METRO AREA AND INLAND AREAS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ENTER
THE REGION WITH THE 00Z SOUNDING INDICATING THE PWAT RISING TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014/

AVIATION...
A WEAK BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THERE IS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE
GULF, ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THIS HAS BROUGHT INCREASED CLOUD COVER
TO SOUTH FLORIDA. IT IS ALSO BRINGING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
CENTRAL FLORIDA, BUT THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT ANY TAF SITES
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, ALTHOUGH SOME MID
LEVEL TO LOW LEVEL CIGS MAY MOVE IN. HAVE KEPT CONDITIONS VFR FOR
NOW. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT, THEN PICK UP OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST IN THE MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO FILL IN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AS
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
SLOWLY PUSHES TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS LOW IS CURRENTLY SPAWNING
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE LOW AND PUSH NORTHEAST AND
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH HEATING LOSS. NONETHELESS...A
FEW SHOWERS SHOULD PUSH ACROSS MAINLY THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW RETREATS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

TUESDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK MOSTLY DRY AS DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. PWAT VALUES
INCREASE TO JUST OVER 1.5 INCHES DUE TO THE MOISTURE RICH
FLOW...THEREFORE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER ANYWHERE IN
THE AREA...SO COVERED WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE POP.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ORIGINALLY EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FROPA
IS NOW EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING AS THE
SURFACE LOW OCCLUDES OVER THE GREAT LAKES BECOMING VERTICALLY
STACKED WITH THE PARENT H5 LOW...THUS WEAKENING THE SYSTEM AS A
WHOLE. ALSO THE DELAYED FROPA ALSO MEANS THAT THE SHARPEST
FORCING SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS THUS REDUCING THE
THREAT OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. STILL EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO PROGRESS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY WITH BEST COVERAGE ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY.

DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN LATE CHRISTMAS NIGHT.
HOWEVER...MODELS NOW SHIFT THE SUBSEQUENT HIGH PRESSURE FURTHER
NORTH...THUS NOT ALLOWING THE DRY AIR INTRUSION TO BE AS STRONG AS
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. AS A RESULT...HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY WERE
RAISED SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES.

MODELS ARE THEN OUT OF PHASE WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY. THE
GFS IS CURRENTLY A GOOD 24 HOURS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...BRINGING
THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA LATE SATURDAY.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SOUTHEASTERLY AT ALL AIRPORTS. APF IS NOT EXPECTED
TO OBSERVE A SOUTHWESTERLY SEA BREEZE BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS
PRESENT IN THE AREA. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY MORE CLOUDS ARE
FORECAST FOR THE TAF PERIOD WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
SPRINKLES. HOWEVER, NO PRECIPITATION IS INCLUDED IN THE TAFS AT
THE MOMENT.

MARINE...
SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE GULF WATERS WEDNESDAY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, THEN INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BY
MIDWEEK, THEN NORTHWEST AND NORTH INTO CHRISTMAS. EXPECT BUILDING
SEAS, ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
RETURN TO END THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  69  81  71  81 /  20  10  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  71  81  72  81 /  20  10  10  20
MIAMI            70  81  71  82 /  20  10  10  20
NAPLES           66  78  67  81 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....60/BD


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