Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
FXUS62 KMFL 280829
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
429 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016
With no major weather features impacting South Florida well into
next week, sea breeze boundaries will be the main driver of
showers across the region. Temperatures will remain seasonably
warm with the most likely area for showers and thunderstorms being
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Tropical Depression 2 remains poorly organized early this morning
as it moves northwestward north of the Bahamas. Located at 2 AM
EDT about 300 miles SE of the South Carolina coast, TD 2 is
expected to become a tropical storm, with the name of Bonnie,
sometime today, but will not be impacting South Florida.
Across South Florida, light to moderate easterly flow continues
and low level moisture has been sufficient for isolated to
scattered Atlantic showers overnight. A few of these showers have
impacted and will continue to impact the east coast metropolitan
areas. Expect this activity to gradually increase in coverage and
intensity after daybreak, with a few thunderstorms possible by
late morning. By afternoon, the Atlantic sea breeze will focus
showers more inland, so Atlantic coastal areas may dry some. Any
thunderstorms today could produce frequent lightning, but strong
convection is not anticipated. Activity will diurnally diminish
this evening, with a similar pattern forecast for Sunday. By
Memorial Day, slightly drier air in place will lead to a
reduction in shower/thunderstorm coverage.
Temperatures through the holiday weekend will generally remain in
the 80s for maxima (with some low 90s over interior and 70s for
minima. Winds will be noticeably less breezy than last few days.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The drying trend that is forecast to arrive Memorial Day will
continue through much of next week. Although sea-breeze boundaries
and subsequent outflow collisions will still suffice for scattered
afternoon thunderstorms over the interior, the urbanized areas on
each coast will only have slight rain chances through the period.
Temperatures will be near climatological normals for the start of
summer, with highs reaching upper 80s on the east and west coasts,
then low 90s from The Everglades to Lake Okeechobee. Low
temperatures will be in the 70s.
Winds will remain easterly around 5 knots early this morning
before increasing to around 10 knots late this morning into the
afternoon hours for the east coast TAF sites. KAPF`s winds will
be light and variable this morning before swinging to a westerly
direction around 10 knots this afternoon. There will be some off
and on showers through the morning hours before some thunderstorms
develop during the afternoon hours. However, the thunderstorms
should be more focused over the interior areas of South Florida.
Therefore, VCSH will remain in the forecast for all of the
terminals today. The ceiling and VSBY should also remain in VFR
conditions today over the TAF sites, except when a shower passes
over the taf site where the ceiling and visibility will fall into
Tropical Depression 2 should not have impact on South Florida`s
waters, as it is expected to move northwest toward South Carolina
and away from South Florida this weekend. East wind averaging 10
knots should prevail into early next week. A few thunderstorms are
possible, especially on Lake Okeechobee in the afternoons,
otherwise benign marine conditions will prevail.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach 85 74 86 73 / 30 20 30 10
Fort Lauderdale 86 75 88 75 / 50 20 30 20
Miami 87 75 88 75 / 50 20 40 20
Naples 86 72 88 72 / 40 30 30 20