Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 131316
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
916 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING AS THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS ON TRACK. THE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS CENTERED NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
WITH LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. THE MCS THAT DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA EAST OF AN UPPER TROUGH HAS COLLAPSED THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS AND SHOULDN`T HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE LOCAL WEATHER. ALTHOUGH
THE MORNING UPPER AIR SOUNDING AT MIAMI WAS SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN
YESTERDAY MORNING...PLENTY OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN (1.9"
PWAT) COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES PENETRATING INLAND AND MERGING WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY. THE SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW SOUTH OF THE
MEAN LOW-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD SUPPORT THE HIGHEST RAINFALL CHANCES
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST. THIS IS
REFLECTED WELL FROM THE HRRR/LOCAL WRF MODEL SOLUTIONS, WHICH
INDICATE SHOWERS AND STORMS INITIATING THROUGH THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA BEFORE
SHIFTING FARTHER WEST TOWARD THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
REMAINS LOW TODAY...A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT
WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS BEING GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THE HWO
HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS POTENTIAL TODAY.

85/AG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 749 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014/

UPDATE...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MOST OF
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY IS EXPECTED IN THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA. THE EAST COAST TERMINALS WERE
ASSIGNED VCTS AT 19Z BUT CONVECTION COULD STILL BE FURTHER WEST.
TERMINAL KAPF ASSIGNED VCTS AT 17Z WITH THE WESTERN PENINSULA THE
MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. A
TROPICAL WAVE IS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE WAS GENERATING SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND MOVING ONSHORE OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST TODAY,
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING SOME SLIGHT DRYING ALOFT TO OCCUR
WITH PWAT DROPPING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES BY THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE WITH CAPE FORECAST TO
BE NEAR 2000 J/KG AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6C/KM WHICH IS
CLOSE TO AVERAGE AND THE 500MB TEMPERATURE NEAR -7 OR -8C WHICH IS
ALSO NEAR THE AVERAGE. A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND EXTENDING INTO THE ATLANTIC ALLOWING FOR DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY SO THE BEST CHANCES FOR
STORMS WILL BE ALONG THE EAST COAST AT NIGHT AND DURING THE EARLY
MORNING SHIFTING TO THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST IN THE AFTERNOONS.
ON TUESDAY, A POWERFUL AND UNSEASONABLY STRONG TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND SHIFTING THE RIDGE
TO SOUTH FLORIDA. A SURFACE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA
AND THESE TWO FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO PLACE A VERY WEAK STEERING
FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND IT APPEARS AT THIS TIME THE STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL FAVOR A SEA BREEZE PATTERN AND FOCUS MOSTLY OVER
THE INTERIOR.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY)...
THE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS A DEEP
LAYER RIDGE REMAINS IN THE AREA. THE TROUGH WILL LIFT TO THE EAST
BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE RIDGE SHIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH. THIS
WILL RETURN A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW PATTERN FOR SOUTH FLORIDA WITH
STORM DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN FAVORING THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST
REGIONS.

AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION NEAR
THE EAST COAST TERMINALS THROUGH 16Z AND THEN SHIFTING TO THE WEST
COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. TROPICAL WAVE TO THE SOUTH WILL KEEP
EASTERLY SURFACE WIND ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH A WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPING AT KAPF AROUND 16Z.

MARINE...
GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND
IS FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS OF LESS THAN 4 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  78  90  77 /  30  20  20  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  80  90  79 /  20  20  20  20
MIAMI            88  79  89  78 /  30  20  20  20
NAPLES           90  76  90  76 /  40  20  40  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB



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