Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 221430
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1030 AM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017

.UPDATE...
Few showers streaming into Palm Beach County this morning,
otherwise generally dry conditions as 12Z ROAB depicts drier
atmosphere than previous few days. Have lowered rain chances
accordingly. Another warm day is in store, and morning low
temperatures are on track to tie daily warm records at Miami, Fort
Lauderdale, and West Palm Beach.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 815 AM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017/

AVIATION...
Few showers streaming toward east coast this morning, and this
trend will likely continue through the day. Where POPs are
highest, KPBI, have added VCSH after 15z. Guidance is hinting at
shower chances increasing slightly tonight, so may have to add
VCSH in with later TAF updates if trend continues. Generally, VFR
conditions will prevail, but some MVFR CIGs are possible. ESE wind
will increase to 15-20 KT by late morning, then diminish to around
10 KT overnight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 351 AM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017/

.High rip current risk along Atlantic beaches again today...

DISCUSSION...
An area of high pressure centered off the coast of the
southeastern United States continues to push eastward this
morning. Some drier air today could lower shower coverage compared
to previous days. Southeasterly flow will continue through the
day, though the easing gradient will help make today less blustery
than previous days across a good portion of southern Florida. An
area of tropical moisture rounding the ridge will potentially
bring additional ingredients for convection, mainly over the Gulf
waters, later today. An approaching frontal boundary will push
into the lower Mississippi Valley today as it moves eastward
towards Florida over the next 24 hours.

As the mid and upper level features lift out of the Tennessee
Valley Monday into Tuesday, the front will begin to weaken as it
nears the area. Guidance continues to indicate a broken line of
showers and storms pushing across a good portion of the peninsula.
As the front exits late Tuesday into Wednesday, drier and cooler
air will filter into Florida. This will be our first break from
the sub-tropics in a while and offer a taste of the dry season for
a few days.

Behind the front, high pressure will build back in and eventually
push another area of moisture from the Caribbean towards the Gulf
ahead of another approaching frontal system. The end of the
extended forecast period still features some timing and intensity
uncertainty between the global guidance, so generally kept things
moistening as that trend seems to be common ground synoptically.

MARINE...
Easterly to southeasterly flow will prevail as high pressure over
the region shifts eastward into the Atlantic. Drier air over the
Atlantic today will help limit shower coverage as it spreads over
a good portion of the region. Some moisture rounding the ridge
today could increase rain chances over the Gulf. Conditions should
slowly improve today, but caution should be exercised by small
craft.

BEACH FORECAST...
Southeasterly flow will permit one last day of a high rip current
risk along the Atlantic beaches today. The risk should begin to
fall on Monday with improvement through much of the week. Today
will also be the last of the elevated high tides capable of
producing minor flooding along low-lying coastal areas. The
Coastal Flood Statement continues through the morning high tide
cycle and the Rip Current Statement through this evening.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  88  79  87  74 /  40  20  30  20
Fort Lauderdale  88  80  87  76 /  20  30  30  20
Miami            89  79  87  75 /  10  30  50  30
Naples           92  76  85  72 /  10  20  40  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

UPDATE...23/SK
DISCUSSION...02/RAG
MARINE...02/RAG
AVIATION...23/SK
BEACH FORECAST...02/RAG



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