Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 111121
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
621 AM EST Sun Dec 11 2016

.AVIATION...
Scattered showers impacting Miami-Dade and Broward terminals
early this morning will likely continue through the evening, and may
expand northward to PBI by mid-morning. A few, generally brief,
periods of MVFR restrictions could accompany the heavier showers,
but VFR should prevail. Activity should become isolated after
sunset so have removed VCSH after 2z. ENE wind of 10 to 15 KT this
morning will veer ESE by late morning, withs speeds increasing to
15 to 20 KT with gusts in excess of 25 KT. Winds will diminish
tonight to 5 to 10 KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 339 AM EST Sun Dec 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...

NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY EVENING/...

As of 335 AM EST...A diffuse frontal boundary/convergence zone
near the Florida Straits has helped focus additional shower
activity for much of the night across far southeastern areas. This
trend will continue into the morning hours with occasional periods
of moderate rain across southeastern Miami-Dade county. For today,
there will continue to be the threat for scattered showers
especially across eastern areas. With plenty of low-level moisture
remaining in place with PWAT values near record highs, some of the
showers will be capable of producing localized heavy rainfall
which may lead to some ponding of water on roadways and in other
urbanized areas. Skies will be mostly cloudy, although some peaks
of sunshine will be possible especially across western areas.

It will continue to remain breezy and gusty at times especially
across eastern areas, with winds of 10-20 mph with occasional
gusts of 25-30 mph. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than
yesterday, ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s.

SHORT TERM /6 PM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

Monday and into Tuesday high pressure to the north gradually
weakens as the flow becomes southeasterly and light. Despite
drier air working in from the midlevels, ample low-level moisture
looks to remain in place across the region, with forecast PWAT
values continuing to hover near record levels for mid-December.
With this moisture in place, there will still be the threat for
widely scattered showers, although weather will be more fair with
less cloud cover and areal coverage of precipitation as compared
to this weekend.

Temperatures will continue to moderate into the short term period,
becoming slightly above normal for this time of year with highs in
the low to mid 80s and lows in the mid 60s to near 70. Some patchy
fog will be possible late Monday night across interior areas.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Long range guidance continues to be in fairly good agreement with
more tranquil weather returning to the region as weak high pressure
builds across the region from the north. Isolated showers will
still be possible, but enough dry air should be in place to result
in mainly dry conditions. A frontal boundary will approach the
region late in the week with no significant impacts expected.
Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal for mid-
December.

MARINE...
Hazardous marine and small craft advisory conditions continue today
for the local Atlantic waters including Biscayne Bay...

A tight pressure gradient will continue across the region today
with gusty east northeast winds across the local waters. Wind
speeds will generally be in the 20-25 knot range over the local
Atlantic waters through much of today, including Biscayne Bay,
with the potential for occasional gale force gusts over the
Atlantic. Winds over the Gulf will be slightly lower at 15-20
knots. Rough seas can also be expected through the day today with
seas of 7-10 feet over the Atlantic and 5-7 feet in the offshore
Gulf waters. Winds over the Atlantic will decrease to 15-20 knots
tonight along with decreasing seas.

Winds will continue to shift to the southeast by Monday with the
flow gradually decreasing and marine conditions improving by late
Monday with decreasing winds and seas as high pressure to the north
weakens and shifts north and east.

BEACH FORECAST...
High risk of rip currents continues for the Atlantic beaches today...

A gusty east to northeast flow will again lead to a High Risk of
rip currents for the Atlantic beaches today and into tonight. Rip
current risk for the Atlantic beaches will begin to decrease
beginning Monday and into Tuesday as the flow shifts to the
southeast and weakens.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  80  70  83  69 /  50  30  20  20
Fort Lauderdale  79  73  82  71 /  50  30  20  20
Miami            79  73  83  71 /  50  30  20  20
Naples           83  67  82  67 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday morning for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for AMZ630-650-
     651-670-671.

GM...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...92/IRL
MARINE...92/IRL
AVIATION...23/SK
BEACH FORECAST...92/IRL



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