Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 041748
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1248 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.AVIATION...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THE REMAINING AFTERNOON
HOURS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. PATCHY FOG IS
EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY...BUT MAINLY
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PENINSULA WITH
TERMINAL KAPF POSSIBLY EXPERIENCING OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF FOG
AROUND 10Z TO 12Z THURSDAY MORNING.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 931 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015/

UPDATE...
FOG DISSIPATED EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS FEW MORNINGS...LEAVING BEHIND
PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. FORECAST ON TRACK...THUS ONLY
MODIFICATIONS TO GRIDS WERE HOURLY ONES TO BETTER REFLECT PRESENT
CONDITIONS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH NO SHOWERS EXPECTED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015/

AVIATION...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR ALL SOUTH
FLORIDA TERMINALS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND INTO THE EVENING.
REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS AND RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE FOG
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN INTERIOR PENINSULA. TERMINAL KAPF
MIGHT EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING BUT SO FAR
OBSERVATIONS DO NOT INDICATE ANY OCCURRENCE WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND INDICATES THE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
CONTINUING AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING DOMINATES. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
STEADILY VEER TOWARD THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD OVER THE
ATLANTIC AND A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO
THE LOCAL AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WILL PERSIST EACH DAY AND MAY NEAR RECORDS (5-10 DEG F ABOVE AVE) IN
SOME AREAS. DESPITE THE DRY MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE AND SUBSIDENCE, PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP
THE FOG CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING PERIODS. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA WHERE THE BETTER SOURCE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS
PROJECTED AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. HOWEVER, A COMBINATION OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, MOIST SRLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE, RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD, OUTSIDE
OF A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SERN ATLANTIC WATERS WITHIN
THE MOIST SSE FLOW.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY)...

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE
STATE. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP AT LEAST ISLTD/SCT SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK DUE TO
PERSISTENT MODEL DIFFERENCES, THE GUIDANCE GENERALLY FEATURES AN
UPPER PATTERN CHARACTERIZED WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD BY THE
MID-WEEK TIME FRAME AND TROUGHING OVER NRN MEXICO.


MARINE...

LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, THEN STALL ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. INCREASING
SEAS DUE TO A NORTHERLY SWELL MAY NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  73  86  69  82 /   0  10  10  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  85  71  82 /   0  10  10  20
MIAMI            72  86  71  83 /   0  10  10  20
NAPLES           66  83  66  81 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...60/BD



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