Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 030835
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
435 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...

...POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

TODAY-TONIGHT...FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW MARCH
SOUTHWARD TODAY, DRIVEN BY THE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND JET MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.
THE FRONT ITSELF WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION, BUT LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO VEER MORE SOUTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES ITS RETREAT SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WILL ADVECT DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.

OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVING BEEN ONGOING ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT, SHOWING A RATHER UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A STORM OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY
TOWARDS LATE MORNING WITH BETTER HEATING. ADDITIONAL STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG BOTH SEA BREEZES AROUND MIDDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH STORM MOTION
FOCUSING CONVECTION TOWARDS THE EAST COAST.

POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON
AS MID LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE GULF MOVES ACROSS
OUR REGION AND 80-90KT UPPER LEVEL JET STARTS TO NOSE INTO THE
PENINSULA. MOST NOTABLY, SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE APPROACHING RECORD
HEIGHTS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S, PROVIDING GOOD LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH, HEAVY RAIN, SMALL HAIL, AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

WEDNESDAY...ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGER
TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH GULF AND FL DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY,
DRIVING THE SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE DAY. WARM AND
MOIST ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE WILL SUPPORT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS,
ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES.

DYNAMIC SETUP STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS,
ESPECIALLY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOUTH FLORIDA ON THE
FAVORABLE SIDE OF THE 100-110KT UPPER LEVEL JET, MID LEVEL TEMPS
DROPPING TO -10 TO -11C, AND WINDS INCREASING TO 30-40KTS.

FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTH FLORIDA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH CONVECTION
TAPERING OFF TOWARDS DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THE HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL
BE A LITTLE BIT COOLER THAN TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S DUE TO
MORE CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA.

THURSDAY-NEXT WEEKEND...DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SWING EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH THE MAIN FRONT
EXPECTED TO CLEAR SOUTH FLORIDA AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN TROUGH WILL BRING TWO MORE DRY
REINFORCING FRONTS THROUGH FL THURS AND FRI, KEEPING NORTHWEST FLOW
IN PLACE.

COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL IN THE LOW-MID 80S. MORE NETBALL, THE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND
LOW 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR, WITH MID-UPPER 60S ALONG THE GULF AND
ATLANTIC COASTS.

TEMPERATURES WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...

SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE THIS MORNING VEERING SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE STATE. STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH 15-20KTS AT TIMES, VEERING WESTERLY
AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL
REGION. GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THURS AND FRI, VEERING
NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN US.

SEAS 1-3FT IN BOTH THE GULF AND ATLANTIC TODAY, BUILDING TO 3-5FT
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH STRONGER WINDS. SIMILAR HEIGHTS LINGER
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL SEAS UP TO 6FT WITH
GUSTY POST FRONTAL WINDS. SEAS DIMINISHING TO 2-3FT FOR THE WEEKEND.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH APPROACH OF FRONT, AFFECTING ALL THE LOCAL
WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...

FORT LAUDERDALE SET A RECORD WARM LOW ON MAY 2ND OF 78F, BEATING
THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 77 SET IN 2014.

WEST PALM BEACH ONLY DROPPED TO 77F ON MAY 2ND, TYING THE
PREVIOUS RECORD WARM LOW OF 77 SET IN 2011.

HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR TUESDAY MAY 3RD

RECORDYEAR
FORT LAUDERDALE           911964
MIAMI      911896
NAPLES  912002
WEST PALM BEACH  911986

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  89  73  88  66 /  60  40  70  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  75  89  69 /  50  30  60  60
MIAMI            90  74  86  67 /  50  30  60  60
NAPLES           88  75  85  69 /  20  20  70  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLZ172-
     173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

MOSES



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