Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 220734
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
234 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY)...

RECENTLY ANIMATED WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN OVER
THE WESTERN STATES FEATURING A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING
EASTWARD TOWARD TEXAS OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, RIDGING
AHEAD OF IT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN REGION AND PLENTY OF MID TO
UPPER MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THE EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH
AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED AROUND THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. MODEL
SOUNDING PROFILES CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT SATURATED LOW-LEVEL PROFILES
WITH MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW UP TO 850 MB. SUBTLE
ISENTROPIC LIFT AROUND THE 300 K SURFACE SHOWN IN THE LATEST RAP
ANALYSIS HAS INITIALIZED WELL AND CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE
PERSISTENT LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST AND GULF STREAM WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING.

AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES, THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SHOWS THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY
LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF AND FL PENINSULA AS A WARM FRONT.
THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUING EASTWARD
TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY, THEN QUICKLY EJECTING NEWD ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY. THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE REGIME WILL PERSIST
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AS THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLVES, WHICH
WILL SUPPORT ABOVE AVERAGE RAIN CHANCES FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. ADDITIONALLY, PLENTY OF MOISTURE COMBINED
WITH THIS BOUNDARY COULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS TODAY.
THE LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE REFLECTS THIS POTENTIAL WITH THE
BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE ADJACENT WATERS AS THE BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVERAGE SHOULD ACT TO LIMIT
DESTABILIZATION INLAND OF THE COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THIS TIME.
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, THE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS SOME MID
TO UPPER DRYING ACROSS THE AREA TRAILING THE WARM FRONT. THIS
DRYING COULD RESULT IN A TEMPORARY BREAK FROM THE OVERCAST
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
RAINFALL CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE,
ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS, WHICH MAY NEAR RECORD
HIGH MINIMUMS EACH NIGHT.

/85

.LONG TERM (MONDAY-THURSDAY)

THE EXTENDED NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE. LARGE SCALE UPPER HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES WILL BE EXPECTED AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DIVE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN/GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS APPEAR FROM CYCLE TO CYCLE, ALL ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
OF A COLD FRONT CONTINUING SEWD TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR FILLING IN BEHIND IT FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY. THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE TO INCREASING
RAINFALL CHANCES THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE AVERAGE. A RETURN TO NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR
THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY.

/85

&&

.AVIATION...

EASTERLY WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25
KNOTS WILL CONTINUE T0 AFFECT THE EAST COAST TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. STRATOCUMULUS WITH LIGHT SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL
MODERATE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND AFFECT THE EAST COAST TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FOR ALL SOUTH FLORIDA TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH VERY BRIEF PERIODS OF NEAR IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z SATURDAY. AFTER 18Z
SATURDAY THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THE MOMENT AND NOT INCLUDED IN TAF`S.

/60

&&

.MARINE...

ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA
WATERS TODAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
ALONG WITH A FEW STORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT TODAY AS THE BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA AND MOVES THROUGH BY
THANKSGIVING DAY. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND IN
THE WAKE OF THIS UPCOMING FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  79  73  83  73 /  50  50  40  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  75  83  75 /  50  50  30  20
MIAMI            80  74  84  74 /  60  50  30  10
NAPLES           81  71  84  71 /  30  20  20   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ173.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ610-630.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR AMZ630.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ676.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ656-657.

&&

$$

AVIATION...60/BD
REST OF DISCUSSION...85/AG


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