Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 091735
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1135 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
SUBSIDING AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25
KNOTS BEFORE SUBSIDING TONIGHT TO A LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW
INLAND...AND AROUND 10 KNOTS CLOSER TO THE COAST. 13/MH

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...A DEEP LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE
EASTERN STATES BEGINS TO BOTH WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND SHIFT EASTWARD
TONIGHT. THIS REMAINS AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROF AND IS ABOUT 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST STATES FOLLOWED BY MODEST WEAKENING TONIGHT.  A TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY WHICH LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE HRRR GUIDANCE.  HAVE ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY BEGINNING MID MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.  DEEP LAYER DRY AIR WILL OTHERWISE BE
IN PLACE WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT.  HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S WELL INLAND TO AROUND 50 CLOSER TO
THE COAST.  LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE COLD AND RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID
20S INLAND TO NEAR 30 AT THE COAST. /29

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...WEDNESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS MOVES THOUGH...SHIFTING THE TROUGH AXIS EAST. THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS REMAINS PUT...THOUGH. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS WORKS WITH A
SEMI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT HAS SET UP OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS...RUNNING FROM THE NORTHERN US ROCKIES SOUTHEAST TO NE FLORIDA
AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS OVER THE PLAINS TO CREATE AND MOVE
SOUTHEAST A WEAKLY ORGANIZED SURFACE LOW OVER THE PLAINS. THIS PUTS A
SURFACE HIGH OVER TX ESE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
ULTIMATELY  RESTORING ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND THE FA. THIS RESULTS IN TEMPS WARMING FROM WELL BELOW
SEASONAL WEDNESDAY (HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S) TO LESS BELOW
SEASONAL (LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S INLAND TO AROUND 40 ALONG THE COAST)
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A VERY DRY AIRMASS OVER THE FA AND SURROUNDING AREAS
HAS TO SIGNIFICANTLY MOISTEN UP...ALLOWING FOR THE LARGER THAN
SEASONAL DIURNAL CURVE.

THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE WEAK SHORTWAVE SWINGS
THROUGH...PUSHING A WEAK RE-ENFORCING FRONT NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW BRINGS TEMPS WELL
ABOVE SEASONAL...WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...AND
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S OVER MOST OF THE FA...UPPER
30S NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FA AS COOLER AIR STARTS TO MOVE BACK OF THE
FA.

/16

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH...
PUSHING A MORE SUBSTANTIAL RE-ENFORCING FRONT ACROSS THE FA SATURDAY.
TEMPS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL...WITH HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 60S...LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO MID 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST. HIGHS SATURDAY
SEE THE EFFECTS OF THE COOLER AIR......WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE
LOWER TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE FA.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MORE UPPER ENERGY MOVES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS TO OVER THE MID (ECMWF)/UPPER (GFS) MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY...PUSHING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM OVER THE PLAINS TO
OVER THE EAST COAST. WITH THE DIVERGENCE IN THE UPPER PATTERN COMES A
DIVERGENCE IN THE RESULTANT TEMPS. THE MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE
ECMWF RESULTS IN A WARMER FORECAST...WITH A SURFACE LOW FORMING AND
MOVE FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. WITH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES HINTING AT
A COOLER FORECAST AND THE GFS ENSEMBLES ADVERTISING A WARMER
FORECAST...HAVE WENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR THE FORECAST.
TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S EXPECTED...WITH
HIGHS SUNDAY RANGING FROM AROUND 50 TO THE MID 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF REALLY STAND OUT. WITH THE MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE RACK
OF THE SHORTWAVE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ALONG WITH A
SPEEDING UP OF ENERGY MOVING INTO A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS...THE ECMWF IS ADVERTISING RAIN CROSSING THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WHILST THE SLOWER/MORE NORTHERLY GFS IS
ADVERTISING THE RAIN IN THE LATE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT TIME
FRAME. HAVE WENT WITH AN IN BETWEEN PASSAGE CENTERING ON MONDAY. HAVE
ALSO WENT IN BETWEEN WITH THE TEMPS...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLES ADVERTISING AN IN BETWEEN SOLUTION. LOWS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHTS GENERALLY IN THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
50S....WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.

/16

MARINE...GALE CONDITIONS DUE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER BAYS AND SOUNDS.   A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOLLOWS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN FOR THE OPEN GULF WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE
OFFSHORE FLOW GRADUALLY SUBSIDES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  A MODERATE
WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. /29

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR ALZ051>060-261>266.

FL...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR FLZ201>206.

MS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-675.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ630>635.

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALZ051>060-
     261>266.

FL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLZ201>206.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MSZ067-075-076-
     078-079.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ630>635.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB


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