Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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000
FXUS64 KMOB 270547
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1146 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...(12Z ISSUANCE)...A GENERAL NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND
8 TO 16 KNOTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  VFR
CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA BUT A
PATCHY BAND OF MVFR CEILING IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT THROUGH THE AREA
AROUND SUNRISE. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO LINGER FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS
BEFORE CONDITIONS REBOUND TO VFR. /08 JW

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 943 PM THU FEB 26 2015/

UPDATE...FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY RANGING FROM MID 30S FAR INTERIOR ZONES
TO THE LOWER 40S NEAR THE COAST...AND ARE WITHIN A DEGREE OF THE
EXPECTED FCST HOURLY TEMPERATURE CURVE. CURRENT DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES INDICATING THAT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S OVER
MOST OF THE INTERIOR AND MID 30S AT THE COAST STILL LOOK REASONABLE.
THE OTHER FCST PARAMETERS LOOKING GOOD TOO AS WELL...THUS WILL MAKE
NO ADJUSTMENTS TO FCST PACKAGE. 12/DS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...(00Z ISSUANCE)...NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND 10 KNOTS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  MVFR CEILINGS FROM WEST
TO EAST OR GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR...EXPECT MOST OF THE FLYING
AREA TO BE UNDER VFR CONDITIONS IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  VFR
SHOULD THEN PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT...BUT ANOTHER STRATUS
DECK PROPAGATING THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY
PROVIDE A COUPLE HOURS OF LOW END MVFR OR IFR AROUND DAY BREAK
TOMORROW BEFORE SCATTERING OUT. /08 JW

******************************PREVIOUS FORECAST*****************

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE REINFORCED ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS. DESPITE THE DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT AS
NORTHERLY WINDS BRING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES...ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTH AND ALLOW
A LOW STRATUS DECK TO REFORM BY LATE TONIGHT. THESE CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE FROM EAST TO WEST FRIDAY MORNING...WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 28 TO 33 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...WITH
MID 30S ALONG THE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S NORTHWEST OF I-65...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S
SOUTHEAST OF I-65. /22

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A STRONG SHORTWAVE SWEEPS EAST
ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF A WSW-ENE ORIENTED TROUGH. THIS SHIFTS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS SOUTH ALONG THE
EAST COAST...TO OVER THE CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SHIFTS LOW
LEVEL FLOW FROM NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY...ALONG WITH BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS TO THE AREA...STARTING IN THE MID LEVELS
SATURDAY AND PROGRESSING TO THE LOWER LEVELS SATURDAY NIGHT AS
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SETS UP. AM NOT REALLY EXPECTING ANY RAIN THROUGH
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. TEMPS MODERATE UPWARD THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR BELOW SEASONAL.

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY ON)...SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT....AN UPPER
SYSTEM SWINGS EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES...PUSHING THE SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE CAROLINAS EVEN FARTHER SOUTH...TO A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING
WEST OVER/NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS BRINGS A GENERAL
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND THE FA. AN
UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS BEGINS TO SWING
EAST...BRINGING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INDUCED SHOWERS TO THE LOWER MISS
RIVER VALLEY AND INWARD TO THE MID MISS/TENN RIVER VALLEYS. THE FA
IS ON THE EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF THIS PRECIP...WITH
WESTERN...THEN NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA SEEING THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN. GUIDANCE IS ALSO INDICATING ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME
RUMBLERS TO RETURN TO THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS
CONTINUES TO SWING EAST...DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND TAKING IT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. GUIDANCE IS
ADVERTISING LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING TO BE BEST ORGANIZED OVER THE
LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHERLY FLOW DOES
BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE FA...BUT OTHER THAN A WARMING
TREND...BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE LOWER MISS
RIVER VALLEY(FOR US...WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.)

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE WESTERN UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
SWING EAST...EVENTUALLY PUSHING THE BAND OF BEST RAIN EASTWARD BEFORE
PUSHING A FRONT ACROSS THE FA EITHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT(GFS) OR
THURSDAY(ECMWF). EITHER IS PROBABLE...SO HAVE TRIED TO BLEND THE
TIMING. EITHER WAY...UNTIL FROPA...TEMPS AND POPS ABOVE SEASONAL
UNTIL THURSDAY....THEN COLDER AIR MOVES IN.

AVIATION...
26.18Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE
MVFR CEILINGS FROM 1500 TO 2000 FEET WILL GRADUALLY ERODE AWAY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS. MVFR CEILINGS OF AROUND 1500 FEET
WILL THEN RETURN AFTER 27.09Z WITH THE PASSAGE OF A REINFORCING WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS
WILL PERSIST. /22

MARINE...A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL REDEVELOP
TONIGHT THROUGH NOON FRIDAY AS A REINFORCING WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS NORTHERN GULF REGION. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE GULF WATERS...THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND EAST OF
PASCAGOULA AND MOBILE BAY THROUGH NOON FRIDAY. SEAS WILL REBUILD TO
3 TO 5 FEET NEAR SHORE AND TO 5 TO 7 FEET WELL OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
BAYS AND SOUNDS WILL BE CHOPPY TO ROUGH. THE WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH A
FEW EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING. A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS BECOMING
EASTERLY BY SUNDAY. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      32  54  35  60  45 /  05  05  00  05  10
PENSACOLA   35  56  40  60  46 /  05  05  05  05  10
DESTIN      38  56  44  57  47 /  05  05  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   30  54  33  60  42 /  05  05  05  05  05
WAYNESBORO  29  48  30  59  41 /  05  05  00  05  05
CAMDEN      29  50  33  60  41 /  05  05  00  05  05
CRESTVIEW   33  59  36  60  43 /  05  05  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE BAY...SOUTHERN
     MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...

&&

$$










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