Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KMOB 021107 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
607 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE CURRENT ZONE FORECAST MAINLY
TO INCREASE POPS FOR MOST AREAS. LATEST SATELITTE LOOPS SHOW MCS
WELL TO THE NORTH SPLITTING OVER MO AND WESTERN TN WITH ONE SECTOR
MOVING SOUTH INTO LOWER AR AND NORTHER MS...TRACKING SOUTH TOWARDS
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WITH POSSIBLE
STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING WELL AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

.MARINE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE CURRENT MARINE FORECAST MAINLY TO
INCREASE POPS FOR MOST AREAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TO THE WEST AND MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...TAPERING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION INLAND
GETS BETTER ORGANIZED. 32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...BROAD MID TO UPPER TROF OVER THE
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS STRETCHING WEST OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER
VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT VERY SLOWLY
THROUGH TONIGHT RESULTING IN GOOD LIFT FOR TODAYS CONVECTION
OCCURRING OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA THIS
MORNING SHIFTING EAST AFFECTING MOST INLAND AREAS EAST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR...STRETCHING SOUTH TO TO NEAR THE AL/FL BORDER. MAIN
CONCERN WITH THIS PATTERN IS THE PRESENCE OF ANOTHER POTENT MCS OVER
PARTS MO AND AR PROGGED TO SPLIT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHWEST LATER
THIS MORNING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE OBS IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOW LITTLE
CHANGE WITH THE DIRECTION AND SPEED POSSIBLY LEADING TO LITTLE TO NO
EFFECT FOR AREAS DOWNSTREAM. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE OPTED TO ADD
A LITTLE MORE VALUE TO THE CURRENT RAIN CHANCES FOR TODAY WITH THE
BETTER COVERAGE OCCURRING OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWFA EARLY TODAY SHIFTING EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER MOIST COLUMN IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH PWATS RANGING FROM 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES WITH MARGINAL LAPSE
RATES. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO DEPICTS HIGHER THEN NORMAL
BULK SHEAR VALUES MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH LATER TODAY WHICH COULD
BE SIGNAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH THE BETTER CONVECTION LATER TODAY. AS FOR
THE COVERAGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY HAVE OPTED TO LEAN
MOSTLY TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE HIGHER RES MODEL GUIDANCE...HRRR/SPC
WRF WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE PATTERN MENTIONED ABOVE. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ATTM...THIS UNDERCUTS BOTH 00Z MAV
AND MET MOS SO SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP FORECAST MAY BE NEEDED
LATER THIS MORNING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MET
GUIDANCE AND ADJUST FOR CONSISTENCY WITH OTHER WFOS. HIGHS TODAY
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND AND THE UPPER
80S ALONG THE COAST. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST
INLAND AREAS AND THE MID 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

[FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT]...A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL
BE PREVALENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION FRIDAY ON THE BASE
OF A PERSISTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION...WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGING
STRETCHES WESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
IN PLACING THE BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA WITHIN ENHANCED MID LEVEL FLOW ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WHILE SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE
SUBSIDENT AIR EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF CLOSER TO THE VICINITY OF THE BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE.
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT TO AT LEAST MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AL ALONG THE SEABREEZE AND/OR
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD OTHERWISE
TREND UPWARD A LITTLE ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS LOOKING TO RANGE
FROM AROUND 90 NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND. THE
COMBINED EFFECT OF AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN MAX HEAT INDICES
IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL
DIG A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL MS/AL FRIDAY NIGHT...AND AN
ASSOCIATED COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD MAINLY IMPACT CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BOTH STATES...BUT WILL CONTINUE A LOW CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE INTERIOR GIVEN
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND INCREASED
MOISTURE AND LIFT ALONG THE INCREASED MID LEVEL FLOW. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO THE MID 70S TO AROUND
80 NEAR THE COAST. /21

LONG TERM [INDEPENDENCE DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...A PERSISTENT MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM THE VICINITY OF THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS/OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH MOIST WESTERLY MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND ON THE
BASE OF THE CONTINUED TROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION THIS WEEKEND...AND OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
UNDERNEATH MOIST WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE
THROUGH SUNDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE
BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.9 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...AND WITH PERIODIC EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION...WE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP BOTH INDEPENDENCE DAY AND SUNDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE
STRONG AT TIMES GIVEN MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG WITH
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHOULD ADVANCE EASTWARD TOWARD
THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE RIDGE...ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE AVAILABLE TO AID IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS EACH DAY. SEASONABLY HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /21

AVIATION...
02.12Z TAF ISSUANCE...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
03.12Z. COULD SEE SHORT PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS MOSTLY IN AND AROUND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING MOSTLY IN THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHWEST
AT 6 TO 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...SHIFTING WEST AT 4 TO 6 KNOTS LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING MOSTLY TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ONE CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTH LATER THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON GENERATING GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS CLIMBING
TO THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER. MARINERS SHOULD MONITOR
THIS SITUATION CLOSELY TODAY AND LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR
LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS IF THREATENING WEATHER IS APPROACHING YOU AREA.
GENERALLY LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
THOUGH SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND AROUND THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PD. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  72  92  74  90 /  50  10  10  10  30
PENSACOLA   89  75  92  77  90 /  50  05  10  10  30
DESTIN      89  79  90  79  90 /  50  10  10  10  30
EVERGREEN   90  71  92  72  92 /  60  20  20  20  40
WAYNESBORO  91  71  93  72  89 /  50  20  10  30  40
CAMDEN      91  72  92  72  91 /  60  20  20  30  40
CRESTVIEW   90  73  94  71  93 /  50  10  10  10  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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