Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 291754
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1154 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL MOVE IN THIS EVENING WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY SHIFT TO NORTH
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BY EARLY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
07/MB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 508 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS
SHOW DEVELOPING SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY EARLY
TODAY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWARD INTO TX WHICH
IS PROGGED TO REACH THE AL/NWFL COAST AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF BY 12Z
FRI. AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXPECT MOSTLY MID TO HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF LOWER BASED MOISTURE MAINLY TO THE
NORTH AND EAST POSSIBLY SPARKING A BRIEF SHOWER GENERALLY EAST OF A
LINE STRETCHING FROM CAMDEN IN AL TO CRESTVIEW FL THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. WITH THE
LIMITED RETURN FLOW EXPECTED AT THE SFC WITH GENERALLY A LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BY LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING NOT REALLY
ANTICIPATING ANY MAJOR DEVELOPMENT OF FOG ALSO...WITH MAYBE SOME
ISOLATED CASES ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO THE COOLER NEAR SHORE
WATERS AND THE HIGHER DEWPTS SETTING UP BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. FOR NOW WILL NOT MENTION ANY FOG
IN THE CURRENT FORECAST TONIGHT MAINLY FOR CONSISTENCY WITH
SURROUNDING WFO`S. AS FOR TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS THE
WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY GOING A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE FOR
MOST AREAS DUE TO PERSISTENCE ALONG WITH SOME SUNSHINE OCCURRING FOR
MOST AREAS EARLY IN THE DAY. LATEST 1000 TO 500 MB THICKNESS VALUES
FROM THE PHYSICAL GFS AND ECMWF REALLY DON`T SUPPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT
DEPARTURE FROM THE LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO. AS FOR TEMPS TODAYS HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S FORM MOST INLAND AREAS AND
THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. FOR TONIGHT LOWS WILL
FALL TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE MIDDLE 40S
CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RETURN TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION FRIDAY BETWEEN A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE
PLAINS STATES. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
UNDERNEATH MAINLY SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER. COOL NORTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES TO THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY LOOK TO FALL BACK
DOWN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS...GENERALLY IN
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION. CONTINUED SURFACE
RIDGING...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS SETTLING INTO
THE AREA WILL PROMOTE COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWS SHOULD
RANGE FROM AROUND 30 TO THE MID 30S OVER THE INTERIOR TO THE UPPER
30S OR AROUND 40 NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. /21

LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...NOT MANY CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WE STILL EXPECT A GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE STILL IN
AGREEMENT WITH SPREADING DEEP LAYER PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM THE
VICINITY OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
STATES LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY EASTWARD TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND FARTHER EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES BY SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST SINKS INTO MEXICO AND ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES FROM THE
PLAINS STATES TOWARD THE EASTERN U.S. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MOISTURE/LIFT
ACROSS OUR AREA VERSUS THIS TIME YESTERDAY...SO IN TERMS OF POPS...
WE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY ONLY A SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE OF RAIN
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT GENERALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MS
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AL. DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER LIFT WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE CWFA SUNDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES
ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS
ADVANCES EASTWARD AND AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

DRY ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE TROUGH PASSAGE WHILE A COOL SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. TEMPERATURES
MONDAY SHOULD SUBSEQUENTLY AVERAGE ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE EAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT
WHILE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE
MAY TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF INTO MIDWEEK AS A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ALSO ADVANCES EASTWARD TOWARD OUR REGION. ASSOCIATED DEEP
MOISTURE SPREADING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. MAY BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD OTHERWISE CONTINUE TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH MIDWEEK. /21

MARINE...A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TODAY AND EARLY
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA NEAR SUNRISE FRIDAY LEADING TO
A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW MOSTLY FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE OPEN GULF WATERS AND THE LOWER END OF MOBILE
BAY INCLUDING THE MS SOUND EAST OF PASCAGOULA LATE TONIGHT AND DURING
THE DAY ON FRI. A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE WEEKEND THEN
SHIFTS MOSTLY NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY IN THE
WAKE OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AS A RESULT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      71  42  59  34  61 /  05  10  00  00  05
PENSACOLA   69  45  59  39  60 /  05  10  05  00  00
DESTIN      64  47  59  41  59 /  05  20  05  00  00
EVERGREEN   70  44  58  32  60 /  05  10  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  73  40  57  32  59 /  05  10  00  00  05
CAMDEN      71  41  58  31  59 /  05  20  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   70  43  60  33  62 /  05  20  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$







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