Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 280452 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1152 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


06Z issuance...VFR conditions forecast through much of the forecast
cycle, with the exception of patchy late night fog development
possible at the KMOB terminal which could lower vsby at MVFR levels
by and after 28.09Z. A few low level cumulus clouds will reform
Friday morning. Light northeast to calm winds overnight will become
east to southeast around 7 knots on Friday. /22


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1018 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...See updated information for land areas below.

UPDATE...Upper air analysis this evening shows trof pivoting
eastward across the northeast US and Appalachians with mid-level
ridge building from the Baja to across Texas. With the upper trof
axis having passed the area, so goes what appears to be the final
chance of showers for the remainder of the month as an upper ridge
builds over the central Gulf coast over the next few days. With that
being said, October 2016 is poised to rank at the top of the
climatological record for Mobile and Evergreen as the driest.
Pensacola will likely come in as the 4th driest.

Drought conditions have worsened, becoming moderately to severely dry
over the area with rainfall over the past 30 days trending 3 to 6
inches below normal. Unfortunately, latest long term climatological
outlooks heading into the month of the November are not promising
much in the way of relief. A large area of below normal
precipitation is outlooked across the entire southern US from
California to Florida and the Mid-Atlantic. /10

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 331 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Thursday night/...A weak shortwave trough
moving from northern AL into northern GA continues to dampen early
this afternoon, while an upper level ridge of high pressure over the
Desert Southwest and Southern Plains states slowly continues to build
eastward toward the Mississippi Valley region. Deep layer moisture
ahead of the shortwave trough axis remains very meager across our
forecast area this afternoon, and regional radar imagery shows no
precipitation developing in our area as of 3 PM CDT. This trend
places us on track to have zero rainfall at the Mobile Regional
Airport and a trace at Pensacola International Airport for the month
of October. See the Climatology section below for additional

There is little change to the overall forecast reasoning through the
next 24 hours. The upper level ridge of high pressure will remain
centered over Texas through Friday afternoon, with the associated
ridge axis expected to gradually build eastward toward the Gulf Coast
region into Friday. Deep layer subsidence and dry air will support
keeping a dry forecast tonight and Friday. Decreasing cloud cover and
very shallow moisture profiles will favor potential for at least some
patchy fog development late tonight and early Friday morning,
particularly over southeast MS where the latest SREF and HRRR are
indicating potential for some locally dense fog. Later shifts will
monitor trends. Otherwise, we expect lows tonight to range from the
mid 50s to around 60 over interior areas to the lower to mid 60s near
the coast. Highs Friday are forecast to range from the mid to upper
80s over inland locations, and in the lower 80s near the immediate
coast and beaches. /21

SHORT TERM /Friday Through Saturday night/...Strong upper level
ridging over the Great Plains will become more zonal into the
weekend before redeveloping late Sunday into early Monday as a
series of low pressure systems dig from the Gulf of Alaska into the
Pacific northwest. At the surface, high pressure currently situated
over the lower Ohio River Valley will drift south into the southeast
U.S. into the weekend. Thus, strong subsidence over the region will
continue our pattern of dry weather and above seasonal temps. Highs
are expected to reach the mid to upper 80s inland and around 80
along the coast this weekend. Overnight lows will dip into the mid
to upper 50s inland to around 60 near the coast each night. /49

LONG TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/...Upper level ridging builds
back into the eastern CONUS early to mid next week as a large region
of high pressure develops over the Florida peninsula and drifts west
across the Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile, high pressure at the surface
will build from the mid-Atlantic coast southwest into the central
Gulf states. With this pattern, can expect to see a redevelopment of
weak onshore surface flow by early to mid next week. However, it
doesn`t look like moisture return will be sufficient enough to
warrant including any long term POPs...especially given the continued
strong mid and upper level subsidence over the forecast area. Expect
daytime highs to run above seasonal next week, with temps reaching
the mid 80s inland and low 80s near the coast each afternoon.
Overnight lows will range from mid to upper 50s inland to around 60
near the coast each night. /49

MARINE...A surface ridge of high pressure will continue to extend
across the Southeast states and the Central Gulf Coast region through
early next week. This pattern will support a light to moderate
northeast to east flow at night, and light to moderate east to
southeast during the day through the period. Seas will continue to
range from 3 to 5 feet well offshore through the weekend before
gradually subsiding into early next week. /21

CLIMATOLOGY...Our meteorologists have taken a closer look at the
climatology records for Mobile and Pensacola and have determined that
Mobile has officially only recorded one October with 0.00"
precipitation in 1874. There was a trace of precipitation recorded at
Mobile in October 1978. It is looking very likely that Mobile will
end the month of October 2016 with 0.00"

For Pensacola, there has only been a trace of precipitation recorded
this month. A trace of precipitation for the month of October was
last recorded at Pensacola in 1971. There have been 3 recorded years
of 0.00" October precipitation at Pensacola: 1952, 1963, and 1978.
Pensacola will likely end this month with only a trace of
precipitation. 34/21




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