Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 232025
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
325 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
EAST FROM OVER THE MISS RIVER VALLEY...INCREASED MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL SIGNAL ITS PASSAGE THE EARLY PART OF TONIGHT...THEN
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT. THIS INITIAL CLOUD CLOVER WILL HELP
TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...AND
COUNTERACT THE LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS AROUND TO A BIT BELOW
SEASONAL EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH A DECREASED VIEW OF THE PARTIAL
ECLIPSE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

FRIDAY...WITH THE SHORTWAVE EAST OF THE FA...CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS UNDER LIGHT NORTH
TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. /16

A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY
AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWEST GULF
OF MEXICO TO THE TN VALLEY REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND TO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S NEAR THE
COAST. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS
THE REGION. /21

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...A MID LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY BEFORE BECOMING
CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE FL PENINSULA AND ADJACENT WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN MONDAY. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE
DEEP LAYERS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...SO A DRY
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. SURFACE RIDGING WILL EXTEND
OVER THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD THE
EAST COAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
WHICH WILL BRING INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION.
THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BRING WARMER LOW TEMPERATURES
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO AVERAGE
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE NEXT MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION INTO THE CANADIAN PROVINCES BY
WEDNESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS
EASTWARD AND SHOULD STRETCH FROM EAST TEXAS THROUGH THE LOWER MS AND
TN VALLEY REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE PERHAPS BECOMING
FOCUSED A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION BY THURSDAY. WE WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES. /21

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST UNDER
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. /16

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOODLE AROUND OVER THE LOWER
MISS RIVER VALLEY INTO SUNDAY...KEEPING AREA COASTAL WATERS UNDER
LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY MOVING EAST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL PUSH THE SURFACE HIGH
EAST OF THE FA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...RESTORING A MORE ORGANIZED
ONSHORE FLOW BY MONDAY. LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
LAST OVER THE AREA INTO MID WEEK. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      49  77  49  77  55 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   52  78  53  78  58 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      54  76  55  77  62 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   42  77  43  77  50 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  43  76  45  79  51 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      44  77  43  78  50 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   41  78  42  79  50 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





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