Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KMOB 160927
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
427 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...EARLY MORNING SFC
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A SFC TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. IT IS HARD TO DESCRIBE THIS AS A FRONT GIVEN ANY
APPRECIABLE AIRMASS CHANGE IS LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MS/AL. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH WILL
BECOME ENHANCED THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO PEAK HEATING. IN
ADDITION...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THAT HAS BEEN PERSISTENT
ACROSS THE REGION WILL ERODE TODAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES
FURTHER ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. THE COMBINATION OF THE SFC
TROUGH...LOWERING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS...PRECIPITABLE WATERS NEAR 2
INCHES...AND MLCAPES APPROACHING 2000 J/KG...ALL SUGGEST NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON (ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SFC TROUGH). WILL MAINTAIN THE PREVIOUSLY FORECAST 60% RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH CHANCES A LITTLE LOWER OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF. HOWEVER...SCATTERED STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER
THIS AREA GIVEN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS
FROM THE STORMS TODAY. LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY
AREAS WERE NUMEROUS STORMS MOVE ACROSS THE SAME LOCATION.

DEEP LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN DRIER MID AND UPPER
LEVEL AIR BY TONIGHT...RESULTING IN DECREASING RAIN CHANCES. WILL
MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF STORMS ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES THIS
EVENING...WITH MOST STORMS DISSIPATING OR PUSHING OFFSHORE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WHILE THE SFC TROUGH ALSO PUSHES SOUTH...THE SIGNIFICANTLY
DRIER SFC AIRMASS IS PROGGED TO STAY TO OUR NORTH...BUT DEWPOINTS
WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES ESPECIALLY OVER FAR INLAND AREAS OVERNIGHT.

USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 90 WITH LOWS TONIGHT UPPER 60S FAR INLAND AND LOW TO MID
70S ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES. 34/JFB

UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS BRINGS LOWERING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AS FAR SOUTH
AS FLORIDA DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOWERING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...THERE STILL
REMAINS ENOUGH ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH
WEAK LIFT BY A SURFACE COASTAL TROF AND A NARROW ZONE OF
INSTABILITY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON STORMS IS FORECAST.
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS LOWER TO 10% OR LESS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY WITH
NUMBERS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 90S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM 64
TO 68 INTERIOR TO LOWER HALF OF THE 70S COAST. /10

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST CANADIAN PROVINCES AND GREAT LAKES THURSDAY...EXPANDS
INTO THE NORTHEAST AND BUILDS SOUTHWARD TO ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
AND SOUTHEAST FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. CONSIDERING THE BUILDING
RIDGE AND WITH UPPER TROF POSITIONED FROM THE EAST COAST...SOUTHWARD TO
FLORIDA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...CHANCES OF STORMS WILL BE
LOW. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE LOWER...STILL CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT APPEARS NOT
ENOUGH OF A CHANCE TO MENTION IN THE ZONES AT THIS TIME.

A SURFACE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY...ENTERING
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY AND CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA
BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS FRONT...BRINGS A SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. DAYTIME HIGHS STILL FORECAST
TO BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY WITH UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S INTERIOR TO LOWER HALF OF THE 70S
COAST. /10

&&

.AVIATION [16.12Z KMOB/KBFM/KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...PREDOMINATE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...NUMEROUS
STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH STORMS LIKELY AFFECTING
MOB/BFM/PNS AT TIMES LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN THE STRONGER STORMS. STORM CHANCES
DECREASE TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z WED...WHICH WILL
LOCALLY RESTRICT VSBYS TO MVFR-IFR LEVELS. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...A SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT WILL LINGER NEAR THE
MARINE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE TROUGH WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS...RESULTING IN A NW/N FLOW...AND
MOVE BACK NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...VEERING WINDS TO THE W/SW.
A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. A STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE...WITH EXERCISE
CAUTION CONDITIONS (15-20 KT) DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS. NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH STORM CHANCES DECREASING FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

RESIDUAL LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL KEEP SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE
2-3 FT RANGE TODAY. SEAS DECREASE TO 1-2 FT WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY BUT BUILD TO 3-5 FT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HIGHEST OVER
THE ALABAMA GULF WATERS WHERE THE EASTERLY FETCH WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  71  92  70  90 /  60  30  20  10  10
PENSACOLA   88  73  92  73  89 /  60  40  20  10  10
DESTIN      88  76  89  74  89 /  60  40  20  10  10
EVERGREEN   89  68  93  65  91 /  50  20  10  10  10
WAYNESBORO  90  68  91  64  91 /  40  20  10  10  10
CAMDEN      89  68  92  65  91 /  40  20  10  10  05
CRESTVIEW   90  68  94  68  92 /  60  30  20  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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