Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 030450
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1150 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY AT 19Z
WITH SOME RETURN FLOW ALREADY SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF
NEBRASKA. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS
THE HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST. MODELS SUGGEST SOME
CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
COMBINATION OF WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OVERSPREADS
THE AREA. POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT ON THE LOW END AS BETTER INSTABILITY
LAGS THE FORCING WITH BEST POCKETS LOCATED IN THE FAR SOUTH AND
NORTH OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHICH THEN SPREAD EAST OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT ALSO APPROACHES THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
MODELS SIMILAR IN MOVING THE FRONT TO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA BY THURSDAY EVENING THEN DRIFTS SLOWLY SOUTH INTO
KANSAS AND MISSOURI THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGHER POPS FOR THE
AREA WITH THIS FEATURE WITH SOUTH HALF LOOKING TO HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S IN SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. COOLER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT ON
THURSDAY THEN SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

COOLER AIR WILL BE OVER THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TREND WILL BE TOWARD WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK HOWEVER AS
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE AND
NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

AVIATION CONCERNS WILL MAINLY BE INCREASING CLOUDS AND WHERE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE. STRATUS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IN ADDITION...THE SATELLITE AND RADAR ARE BEGINNING TO
SHOW CONVECTION BLOSSOMING IN CENTRAL KANSAS AND ALSO BEGINNING IN
SOUTH DAKOTA. WILL TREND WITH INCREASING MID CLOUDS WITH STRATUS
AND PATCHY FOG INCREASING BETWEEN 09-12Z WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS...LASTING INTO THE MORNING AND DECREASING 15-18Z. ONE
AREA OF CONVECTION SHOULD GO TO THE NORTH...WITH THE AREA OVER
KANSAS...LIFTING NORTH AND SHIFTING NORTHEAST. KLNK AND KOMA COULD
BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION WEDNESDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTION FOR NOW. SOUTH WINDS
6-12KTS WILL INCREASE DURING THE MORNING TO AROUND 15KTS SUSTAINED
WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25KTS...THEN DECREASE TO UNDER 15KTS AFTER 00Z.
DID MENTION LLWS AT KOMA BETWEEN 12-15Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY



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