Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 191142
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
542 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(today through Saturday)
Issued at 310 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

Low clouds working slowly north at 08Z from western and central
Kansas into central Nebraska in advance of 850mb trough over
western Nebraska. 500 mb closed low was also in the area centered
over south central Nebraska.

Cloudy skies are expected to gradually overspread the forecast
area today as upper low moves toward northeast Kansas with short
range models showing some slight deepening during this time.
Temperatures remain above freezing across the area early this
morning and are expected to climb into the 40s by afternoon. Will
only mention patchy fog for a time this morning and mainly in
northeast Nebraska where latest short range models spread the
stratus. Temperatures will likely have a more limited diurnal
range in areas where clouds arrive first this morning. Have also
removed mention of drizzle for today as low level moisture comes
in slower than indicated by previous days models.

Periods of drizzle and fog become more likely tonight into Friday as
the upper system works north across the area with lingering low
level moisture in advance of the next wave moving into the area on
Friday. With better moisture and forcing associated with this
second system rain chances increase Friday night then decrease
from south to north on Saturday as the system lifts into the upper
midwest. Temperatures again are expected to remain above freezing
Friday night keeping precipitation all liquid.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

Remainder of the weekend into early next week looks dry with
temperatures remaining above seasonal normals. Change comes into
the picture by Tuesday however as another strong upper level
system comes out of the central Rockies and onto the plains.
This system will have colder air available with wintry conditions
expected to return to the region on Tuesday and Wednesday. There
will be a chance of snow for northeast Nebraska on Tuesday with
rain changing to snow in southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa by
Tuesday afternoon or evening extending into Tuesday night. Snow
diminishes on Wednesday as the primary system moves off to the
northeast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 531 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

Deteriorating conditions today are expected at all TAF sites this
morning. KOFK has recently become IFR, and by mid to late morning
the IFR cigs will move into KLNK and KOMA as well. LIFR/IFR cigs
and MVFR visby is then expected through the day today. Tonight we
will likely see fog set in tonight at all TAF sites after 06Z
through the end of the period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fobert
LONG TERM...Fobert
AVIATION...



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