Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 051705
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1205 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW IN COMBINATION WITH THE
LOW/MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS HELPED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY GOING THIS MORNING. SOME OF THAT COULD MOVE DOWN INTO
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA BEFORE WEAKENING. NEW
ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALL GRIDS AND PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED AND
OTHER UPDATES ARE EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING. MOST OF THE SHORT
RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE NOT HANDLED THIS AT ALL. THE
00Z HIGH RES ARW DID HAVE SOME IDEA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA...WITHIN AN AREA OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.
THE CELLS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT PULSY THIS MORNING LIKELY PRODUCING
SOME SMALL HAIL HALF INCH TO NICKEL SIZE. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN CONFINED TO EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...AND COULD LINGER
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO PAST 12Z THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE...PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 30 MPH...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO BOOST
TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. RAP/SREF/MODELS DO HINT AT
ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...THUS HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS THERE 21-00Z.

FOCUS SHIFTS TO INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. HAVE
DELAYED ONSET OF PRECIP IN OUR AREA BY ABOUT 3 TO 6 HOURS FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT MAY NEED TO DELAY BY ANOTHER 3 TO 6 HOURS
AS MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SLOW THINGS DOWN. STILL HAVE HIGH
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ALONG/NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 TONIGHT. HAVE
DOUBTS IF PRECIP WILL MAKE IT TO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST IOWA TONIGHT. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...WITH A STRONGER ENHANCED RISK ALONG THE NE/SD
BORDER AND POINTS NORTHWARD.

FRONT SWEEPS INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS...BUT MOSTLY CLEARING THE
AREA BY MONDAY EVENING...WITH JUST LINGERING THUNDERSHOWERS IN
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BEFORE 03Z.

TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND COOLER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

DRY EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS THE AREA REMAINS BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
SUBTLE WAVES MOVE BACK ONTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. BEYOND
THEN...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN TIMING ANY ADDITIONAL WEAK WAVES AS
MODELS BECOME OUT OF SYNC WITH SYNOPTIC DETAILS...RESULTING IN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

ISOLD TSRA CONTINUED TO DECREASE BY AROUND MID DAY. CHANCE OF
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT SEEMS TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS
TIME BUT WILL AMEND IF NEEDED. GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
UNTIL TSRA MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. CHANCES AT KLNK AND
KOMA ARE BEST AFTER ABOUT 10Z TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS SEEM POSSIBLE
WITH THE ACTIVITY AT KOFK AFTER MIDNIGHT. WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AT KOFK BEFORE 12Z. WIND SHIFT AT KOMA AND KLNK WILL
LIKELY BE AFTER 14Z AND DID NOT INCLUDE THAT FOR NOW SINCE TAFS
WERE ALREADY FAIRLY LONG.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER



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