Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KOAX 271125
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
625 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

Area of cool high pressure continues to build southeast across the
forecast area allowing winds to become light and variable in our
western areas. A clearing line continues to slowly move east and
morning temperatures continue to drop to below freezing in clear
areas. Although temps under the blanket of clouds are above
freezing, we are going to continue frost/freeze headlines with any
additional clearing allowing temperatures to drop by sunrise.

After a chilly start to the day, dry and cool conditions
are expected through much of the day with light winds as the
surface ridge axis slides east over the area. By this afternoon,
an upper-level shortwave will move east out of the Colorado
Rockies providing large scale motion for ascent across northern
Kansas and southern Nebraska. Point forecast soundings indicate
quite a bit of dry air to overcome preventing much, if any, pcpn
north of I-80 before 03z. Pops will gradually increase and spread
north overnight as additional shortwave energy rotates around
a developing upper level low over the western CONUS. Forcing for
ascent should subside quickly by Friday afternoon while a
cooler/drier airmass drops out of the Dakotas.

Attention turns to strengthening western upper low which is
forecast to deepen over the Four Corners region late Friday night
and drift east/northeast across Kansas and into northern Missouri
by early Monday and eventually into the Great Lakes region Monday
evening. Ahead of this, the warm conveyor belt will bring a
significant amount of Gulf moisture into the Midwest. The
associated surface low will track northeast from north central
Texas Saturday afternoon into northeastern Missouri by Sunday
afternoon, leaving our area on the cool side of the system.
Precipitation should begin to spread north out of Kansas and
Missouri and into our southern counties overnight Friday into
early Saturday morning with rain showers becoming widespread over
the entire forecast area by Saturday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

Widespread precipitation will continue ahead of the upper low
through the day Sunday with deformation zone passing overhead
Sunday night into Monday. With temperature profiles across
northeast Nebraska showing lows in the low to mid 30s across our
north and 850mb temps around -5 to 0C, there is a potential for
some snowfall accumulations, especially across northeast Nebraska.
Have bumped Sunday/Sunday night winds up to the breezy category
with strong momentum transfer around the backside of the system.

Precipitation could linger into early Monday depending on timing of
the system, with a rapid warm up into the 60s for Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

Break between clearing and ceilings 2500-4000 feet was generally
along a line from about KOFK to near KLNK as of 11Z, and there was
a break in the clouds near KOMA. Expect SCT to BKN conditions at
KOFK and KLNK this morning until that moves east. Clouds will
linger longer at KOMA. Winds should decrease as high pressure
ridge builds over the area. Ceilings will decrease tonight as
moisture increases. MVFR conditions possible mainly at KLNK after
06Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for NEZ044-045-
     051>053-065>068-078-088>093.

     Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>034-042-043-050.

IA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for IAZ055-056-069-
     079-080-090-091.

     Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for IAZ043.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kern
LONG TERM...Kern
AVIATION...Miller


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.