Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 230906
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
405 AM EST Thu Feb 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure will again build over our region today and
Friday bringing near record warmth for late February.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 245 AM THURSDAY...

Our region was essentially left out of the light rains of Wednesday
that occurred over the western and northern part of NC. The Triad
cities of Winston-Salem and Greensboro were brushed with a few
hundredths of an inch of rain. However, it was just to the NW over
the Foothills where there was enough rain for a stronger In-Situ
Damming situation creating dense fog late yesterday and this
morning. It is still unclear if widespread dense fog will develop
into our Triad communities this morning. The clearing aloft over top
the moist and mild ground points toward dense fog. However, again it
only rained a few hundredths over our NW counties, suggesting the
ground may not be moist enough (as it is over Surry/Yadkin/Iredell
Counties) for the development of widespread dense (less than 1/4
mile) visibilities. Given the current observations, we will hold off
on an Advisory, but may issue a Special Statement if needed before
the main morning rush.

Otherwise, stratus and fog along with the high clouds will clear out
today. This will allow for a mostly sunny afternoon. Near record
warmth today (see climate section below) in the NW, where highs are
projected to reach the lower 70s. Readings elsewhere should be well
into the 70s. The increase in dew points and the lack of wind should
help keep temperatures from warming into the 80 degree range, under
the strengthening upper high.

Tonight - lack of a moist ground should lead to less than model
forecast of fog and stratus. However, warm overnight lows and dew
points well above average in the upper 40s and 50s certainly argue
for some status and fog. Mixed signals - so we will trend the
forecast toward less status given the dry ground. Lows 48-55.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND Friday NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM THURSDAY...

Near record daily warmth appears to be the theme.

Expect the strong ridging and sinking air to combine with warm
thicknesses to send temperatures soaring. The lack of a dry west
breeze and low dew points should help temper the warmth somewhat.
However, the dew points in the 50s will make it feel most like very
early May! Highs should approach 80 in many areas, with mid 70s NW.
Light surface winds from the SE-S expected to be less than 10 mph.

Another warm night with dew points in the 50s expected Friday night.
Partly cloudy skies expected with lows near record high mins.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 400 AM Thursday...

A strong trailing cold front is expected to move across central NC
on Saturday. The main surface low with the system and best dynamic
will lifts from the central Plains Thursday night into the Great
Lakes region on Saturday as the associated mid level trough takes on
a bit of a negative tilt. The best chance for convection along the
trailing front is expected to be to the north of central NC, with
the main combo of dynamic and moisture passing well to the north of
the area. Nonetheless, we could see some showers and perhaps a
thunderstorm or two, primarily across the northern portions of
central NC. Given the impressive deep shear if we are able to get
some convection develop along/in advance of the front the strongest
storms would pose a damaging wind threat. However, with little to no
deep convection expected across central NC at this time on Saturday
SPC has keep any severe potential to the north of the area in the
day 3 outlook. Regardless, expect breezy/windy conditions, with wind
gusts of up to 25 to 35 mph possible. High temps are expected to be
in the 70s, with possibly a few 80s in the far south and east.

Dry weather is expected Saturday night through Monday morning as
surface high pressure moves across the area. This should result in a
return to more seasonal temps, with highs in the 50s and lows in the
30s.

A warming trend will commence on Monday as the surface high moves
offshore. However, with deep southwesterly flow aloft we will likely
see some s/w disturbances track across the area early to mid next
week, yielding increasing chances for showers. The next main front
will remain to the west of the area through the forecast period
though. This should result in a warming trend with highs the 60s and
70s. Will keep pops low during this period though, until medium
range model guidance comes into better agreement on the timing of
such s/w disturbances mentioned above.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1255 AM Thursday...

24 Hour TAF Period: A lingering CAD air mass over the Northwest
Piedmont will lead to MVFR/IFR cigs and visbys falling into the LIFR
range with very low stratus and/or fog early this morning,
continuing through mid to late morning at KGSO/KINT. Elsewhere,
expect mainly VFR conditions will continue with good amount of mid
and high clouds expected, as a weak mid level trough slowly moves
across the area. The main shield of mid and high clouds will
shift eastward across the area this morning as the mid/upper level
trough axis shifts eastward. Winds are expected to remain calm to
light and variable this morning, with a light S to SE wind expected
today into the evening.

Outlook: Aside from some early morning fog/stratus, expect
predominately VFR conditions through early next week. The exception
will be a very isolated/small chance of a shower or thunderstorm as
a cold front moves through the area Saturday afternoon. Winds will
become breezy Saturday afternoon as the front approaches from the
west, with sustained winds between 15 to 20kts, gusting 25 to 30
kts.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures
      February 23rd         February 24th        February 25th

GSO      73/1980                79/1982             81/1930
RDU      79/1980                81/1982             82/1930
FAY      80/1922                83/1930             85/1930

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...BSD
CLIMATE...RAH



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