Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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242
FXUS62 KRAH 221607
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1207 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH TONIGHT...THEN LINGER ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM FRIDAY...

SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND
COAST...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS... AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON. PRESSURE RISES ASSOC/W HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC SHOULD RESULT IN A NE BREEZE
LATE TONIGHT (06-12Z SAT)...LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING TO SOME
DEGREE. EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...
COOLEST IN RURAL AND LOW-LYING AREAS...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
64 WHERE THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE WILL OCCUR CLOSER
TO SUNRISE. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM FRIDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW (CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CA AT 15Z) WILL TRACK
EAST THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE ROCKIES SAT/SAT NIGHT.
HEIGHT FALLS /DPVA/ ATTENDANT THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION /LATENT HEAT RELEASE/
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT. THIS...IN TURN...WILL
AMPLIFY THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC. AS
A RESULT...EXPECT SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN ANCHORED IN VICINITY
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND CONTINUED DRY/PLEASANT CONDITIONS OVER
CENTRAL NC WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 70S FAR NE COASTAL
PLAIN TO LOWER 80S SW PIEDMONT. EXPECT LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM FRIDAY...

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: A STRONG RIDGE ALOFT...COUPLED WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL COMBINE TO KEEP THE
LONG TERM MOSTLY DRY AND INTRODUCE A WARMING TREND THAT WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES FROM THE LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR WARMING TREND
STARTING IN THE LOWER 60S ON MONDAY MORNING AND MODERATING TO THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES BY MID WEEK. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN
STAGNANT THROUGH THE LONG TERM...KEEPING A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND
CORRESPONDING MOISTURE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE SURFACE
HIGH ALONG THE COAST COULD MEAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME MOISTURE
ENCROACHING ON THE PIEDMONT TRIAD TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY...AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THURSDAY THE MOST LIKELY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
WEST OF US HIGHWAY 1 AS THE UPPER RIDGE REALLY BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN...ALLOWING THE STALLED FRONT TO THE WEST TO IMPINGE ON PARTS OF
CENTRAL NC. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE AREAS EAST OF ROUTE 1 COULD
REMAIN COMPLETELY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS IS SLOWER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH AS DETAILS EMERGE ABOUT
POTENTIAL THUNDER LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THERE WILL AT LEAST BE SOME
INSTABILITY...BUT SHEAR LOOKS VERY WEAK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM FRIDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD IN
ASSOC/W HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH/NW.
THOUGH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 15 KT THIS MORNING... WINDS
WILL WEAKEN TO 5-10 KT AND EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE OR CALM
BY SUNSET. A SHORT PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WINDS AS HIGH AS 10-15 KT
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...06-12Z SAT...IN ASSOCIATION WITH
PRESSURE RISES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC.

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST... WITH
A SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. EXPECT AN
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CEILINGS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS BY MID/LATE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW COMMENCES. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...VINCENT



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