Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 250202

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
959 PM EDT Tue May 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure near the surface and aloft will build
into central NC through midweek.


.NEAR TERM /through tonight/...
As of 955 PM Tuesday...

High pressure expanding at the surface and aloft will maintain clear
skies and a light wind regime overnight, as the stacked area of low
pressure (now located near the Northeast U.S. coast) continues to
slowly lift off to the north and east. This will result in mostly
clear skies tonight with light and variable to calm winds. However,
with temps having warmed into the 80s today expect overnight lows
will be warmer tonight than last. Expect low temps will range from
the mid 50s in the coolest rural areas to the lower 60s/around 60 in
the urban areas.


.SHORT TERM /Wednesday through Thursday Night/...
As of 300 PM Tuesday...

Wednesday...while the low level air mass will be slightly unstable,
primarily over the coastal plain, a subsidence cap attributed to the
ridge aloft will likely inhibit convective development during the
heat of the day. If there was a mentionable threat for an isolated
thunderstorm, guidance would suggest the I-95 corridor has the
favored region.

May see a slightly better chance for afternoon-early evening
convection on Thursday as upper heights falter a bit in response to
a minor s/w crossing the OH valley into the Mid-Atlantic. This
weakening of the cap along with another day of string heating
resulting in a slight to moderately unstable low level air mass
should support a few thunderstorms.
The threat for late day convection appears highest in the Piedmont
in vicinity of a lee side trough.

Above normal temperatures expected both Wednesday and Thursday with
max temps in the mid-upper 80s common. Potential for a few spots to
hit 90 as the 850mb/700mb anti-cyclones are in a favorable
position/strength for hot conditions. Mild conditions expected
Wednesday night with min temps in the lower 60s. A bit warmer
Thursday night with min temps in the mid 60s.


.LONG TERM /Friday through Tuesday/...
As of 325 PM Tuesday...

The main forecast concern during this period will be low pressure
off the FL east coast on Friday, that is progged by both the GFS and
ECMWF to lift north toward the Carolina coast over the weekend. The
12z ECMWF is now much farther south with the low compared to its 00z
run, and is now in better agreement with the GFS, which shows the
low center coming ashore somewhere along the SC coast. Both
solutions suggest the chances for a prolonged period of cloudy and
damp weather for central NC is increasing, thus will continue the
upward trend in our POPs for the period from Saturday night through
at least Monday.  In fact, if the latest ECMWF solution verifies, it
could possibly remain cloudy, damp (perhaps even wet), and breezy
from Sunday right through Monday and even into Tuesday. For now,
given the uncertainties and low confidence, will keep pops limited
to the chance range Saturday night through Tuesday; but if you have
outdoor plans this holiday weekend, you`ll definitely want to pay
close attention to the forecast!

In the meantime for Friday and at least the first half of Saturday,
our weather will be influenced by the sfc ridge extending south
across the Carolinas from the parent high to our north and east
offshore. On Friday, a few daytime showers over the higher terrain
may drift east toward our western coastal plain counties during the
afternoon, but drier air in the subsident region north of the
aforementioned low will be pushing westward and should keep most of
central NC dry Friday into early Saturday.

Highs Friday and Saturday in the mid 80s and lows in the lower-mid
60s. Temps late in the weekend into early next week will be mostly
influenced by what happens with the low and subsequent rain. For
now, will stay close to climo during that time.


.AVIATION /00Z Wednesday through Sunday/...
As of 800 PM Tuesday...

24 hour TAF period: High confidence of VFR conditions through the
TAF period as high pressure moves overhead. Winds are expected to be
out of the southwest at around 5 kts with mostly clear skies. No
significant restrictions to aviation are expected.

Long term: VFR conditions should prevail through much of the
extended until Thursday night into Friday when rain becomes more of
a threat in the NW Piedmont.





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