Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 242030
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
330 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING... THEN
SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM
OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA LATE TUESDAY... AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE CAROLINA AND MIDATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FROM
THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...

WARM AIR PERSISTS OVER CENTRAL NC... WITH HIGHS SO FAR IN THE LOW
70S... ALONG WITH ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIR IN THE EAST WHERE PW VALUES
EXCEED 1.7". STEADY HIGH VALUES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 ALONG WITH MASS CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT PATCHY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT... ALTHOUGH IT MOST CERTAINLY WON`T BE RAINING THE ENTIRE
TIME. WILL KEEP ISOLATED POPS IN THE EAST TONIGHT... WITH NOTHING
WEST WHERE THE COLUMN REMAINS FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE. THE COLD FRONT
NOW ANALYZED WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT... RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT...
DROP IN TEMPS AND DEWPOINT... AND PERHAPS A WESTWARD BUMP OF THE
BACK EDGE OF PRECIP... BUT LITTLE ELSE GIVEN THE GENERALLY DRY AIR
IN PLACE AND LACK OF FORCING FEATURES INCLUDING A FLAT SW MID LEVEL
FLOW. CURRENT SW WINDS HAVE GUSTED SPORADICALLY TO 20-25 KT... BUT SO
FAR THESE HIGHER GUSTS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY INFREQUENT. THESE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH A LOSS OF MIXING. EXPECT
LOWS FROM THE MID 40S IN THE TRIAD TO UPPER 50S IN THE EAST. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR COASTAL NC THROUGH TUE... AS THE
STEERING FLOW BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL ZONE AND CEASES ITS
EASTWARD PUSH. THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS JUST OFF
THE COAST TUE MORNING... WHILE THE ELEVATED PW VALUES ACCORDINGLY
GET BUMPED EASTWARD AS WELL. MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD HAVE A QUIET
AND DRY DAY WITH JUST SOME MID CLOUDS STREAKING NORTHEASTWARD OVER
THE AREA ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF. THE TRADITIONAL MODELS AS
WELL AS THE HI-RES WRF NMM/ARW AND THE SREF PROBABILITIES SUGGEST
THAT OUR FAR SE CWA WILL STILL SEE SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN THROUGH
THE DAY... LIKELY FALLING FROM AN ELEVATED CLOUD BASE WHICH WILL CUT
DOWN ON QPF AS ANY RAIN SHOULD FALL THROUGH A SOMEWHAT DRY LAYER
FROM 800-925 MB. WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH TUE... WITH SAMPSON AND SE WAYNE COUNTIES SEEING THE BEST
CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN. EXPECT HIGHS OF AROUND 60 TO 66... WITH
THE WEST HALF SEEING MUCH MORE SUN THAN THE EASTERN HALF. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE NE GULF AND NRN FL
LATE TUE... THEN TRACK TO THE NNE TO A POSITION OFF THE SRN NC COAST
BY 12Z WED AS CENTRAL PRESSURES DROP 5 MB. STRENGTHENING UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN INTENSIFYING UPPER JET
CORE (TO AROUND 200 KTS) FROM CENTRAL NC TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASE LIFT FURTHER INLAND... AND WE`LL BEGIN
TO SEE DECENT HEIGHT FALLS LATE. THIS ALONG WITH RE-MOISTENING OF
THE COLUMN WILL SUPPORT INCREASING POPS TUE EVENING/NIGHT... UP TO
CATEGORICAL EAST WITH GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY WEST OVERNIGHT...
ALTHOUGH THE MID LEVEL DPVA WILL BE RATHER MEAGER. THE COOLER AIR
ADVECTING IN ALOFT WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS BRINGS ABOUT A
CONCERN FOR POSSIBLE NON-LIQUID PRECIP LATE TONIGHT. EXAMINING
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HOWEVER... IT APPEARS THAT THE CLOUD BASES WILL
BE RATHER HIGH INITIALLY WITH SURFACE TEMPS (AND WET BULBS) WELL
ABOVE FREEZING... AND THAT BY THE TIME THE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN
SUFFICIENTLY... THE LOWEST THOUSAND FEET IN THE TRIAD SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING. AND BY THE TIME THE MARKED COOLING ARRIVES IN THE
LOW LEVELS... WE WILL HAVE ALREADY DRIED OUT ALOFT. SO WHILE WE MAY
SEE A FEW WET FLAKES IN THE NW PIEDMONT LATE TUE NIGHT... IT WILL BE
OF ZERO CONSEQUENCE. EXPECT LOWS FROM 36 NW TO 44 SE. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM MONDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. COAST ON WEDNESDAY. ALL MODELS INDICATE
PRECIPITATION SPREADING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE DAY WHILE
THE LOW IS IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. TIMING
AND INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE KEY IN DETERMINING
WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN. FOR NOW...
EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE ALL LIQUID...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE CHANCE
FOR A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES TO MIX IN...MAINLY THE FAR NORTHWEST FOR
THE HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK WHEN TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S. CONFIDENCE THAT SNOW WILL FALL IS VERY LOW AT THIS
POINT AND IF IT DOES OCCUR IT WILL BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. DRY AIR
WILL BEGIN ADVECTING IN ALOFT AND MIXING DOWN AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY
FROM THE REGION...HOWEVER SKIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY
THE PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER...BUT EXPECT MAINLY AROUND 40 DEGREES
NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

THANKSGIVING DAY/NIGHT: THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW WILL COME
ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE MODELS
INDICATE PRECIPITATION BEING GENERATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE...AND
IF IT OCCURS AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S...SNOW FLURRIES WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHATEVER PRECIPITATION IS
GENERATED SHOULD BE LIGHT...WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. THE
FASTER GFS SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR FLURRIES...WHILE THE SLOWER ECMWF
WOULD FAVOR SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES UNTIL THE S/W
EXITS THE REGION...RAPIDLY CLEARING BEHIND IT. WITH PLENTY OF SUN
EXPECTED ON THANKSGIVING...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO
MID 50S SOUTH. CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT NW WINDS
WILL YIELD LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW ON FRIDAY AND
LINGER OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE OUT
OVER THE ATLANTIC AND AWAY FROM THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND...
HOWEVER IT WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME STALLED WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HOWEVER NO
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...FROM MID 40S TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES ON FRIDAY...TO UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM MONDAY...

WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD AT INT/GSO THROUGH EARLY
TUE AFTERNOON... FARTHER EAST... MVFR CONDITIONS WILL COME AND GO AT
RDU/RWI/FAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON... AND SOME LIGHT RAIN
IS POSSIBLE AT FAY. CIGS AT RDU/FAY/RWI ARE EXPECTED TO THEN LIFT TO
VFR EARLY THIS EVENING...  ALTHOUGH THEY MAY HOLD MVFR LONGER AT
FAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SW AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 8-
15 KTS WITH PERIODIC GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
SWING AROUND TO WEST THEN NW AND N LATE TONIGHT (BETWEEN 06Z AND
11Z) FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT... DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS AND MOIST
AIR NEAR THE GROUND... IFR/LIFR STRATUS MAY FORM AT RWI/FAY IN THE
HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK... ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH AT
THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED AFTER 13Z TUE WITH NORTH
WINDS AND ANY CIGS ABOVE 3K FT AGL.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z TUE... ONCE THE FRONT MOVES TO THE COAST TUE
MORNING... A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER NRN FL EARLY TUE
AFTERNOON... AND BEGIN TO TRACK NE ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT. THE BULK
OF THE RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM -- ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS -- IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AFTER 00Z WED (EARLY TUE
EVENING)... SPREADING NORTH AND WEST ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC TUE
EVENING... LASTING THROUGH WED MORNING BEFORE ENDING FROM SW TO NE
BY EARLY WED AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME BRISK AND GUSTY FROM THE
NNE AT FAY TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
TRACKS UP THE NC COAST. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY RETURN LATE
WED AFTERNOON... HOWEVER PASSAGE OF A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER
WED EVENING WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND A BRIEF
SNOW SHOWER MAINLY TO INT/GSO/RDU/RWI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU THROUGH SAT. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...HARTFIELD


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