Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 232014
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
314 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

A dry sfc cold front is moving across our eastern counties with
gusty winds. A Canadian air mass will remain in place through
Tuesday with a large upper level trough over the eastern CONUS.
Gusty winds will diminish somewhat tonight, but pick back up
again just after daybreak Tuesday with mixing. Could see
borderline criteria for a wind advisory Tuesday with gusts near 40
mph over the western cwfa and higher terrain along the western
Ozarks Plateau. Highs in the 50s, maybe the lower 60s, will be
common.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

For Tue night: Will watch for frost potential. Went with a
consensus mos guidance which keeps winds up around 7 kts or so
with poor RH recovery with lows in the mid 30s. Have patchy frost
in the forecast for now for wind protected areas. Not sure the
conditions are there for a widespread frost.

Wed-Fri: Another shortwave and the associated sfc cold front will
approach the region Wed-early Thu with a warming trend as winds
back to the west and southwest. Moisture return will initially be
very limited so expect essentially a dry frontal passage late Thu-
Thu evening. Am a little concerned about lingering clouds Fri-Fri
night given the deepening/slowing upper system. The ECMWF and to
a lesser extent the GFS tend to slow the front down once it passes
east of our counties Thu night into Friday. Will need to watch
the back edge of the clouds and possible light showers for the
eastern cwfa as depicted by the ECMWF Fri-Fri night as moisture
finally does return northward along the frontal zone, but the
consensus guidance keeps us dry.

Freeze potential this weekend: The air mass looks to be cold
enough for a freeze Fri night into Sat if it does clear out. With
dew points expected to be in the 20s, could see sfc temps near
freezing again Sat night.

Mon: A warming trend is expected Monday ahead of another
approaching sfc front in a persistent nw upper level flow pattern.
It looks dry Monday with little in the way of moisture return.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR with gusty winds. A dry cold front is
moving through the region attm with increasingly gusty winds
veering to the west and northwest. 30-35kt sfc gusts will be
possible in favorably wind exposed areas, mostly during daylight
hours.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...DSA



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