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000
FXUS63 KSGF 010914
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
314 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

It was a rainy night over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures were in the 30s, while winds were
breezy and generally from the south.

Nearly 100 percent coverage of measurable rain occurred this
morning as a large shield of precipitation was detected on radar
over the entire state of Missouri. More rain is expected this
morning, followed by a change over to flurries or light snow late
this morning and afternoon.

The forecast looks right on track as nearly all locations will not
experience any measurable snow accumulations. We can not rule out
a dusting to a half inch up north of Highway 54. Warm ground
temperatures, diurnal snowfall, and light rates will make
accumulating snow difficult.

A cold front will bring a colder airmass through southern Missouri
today, allowing for that change over to snow. Temperatures are
expected to drop throughout the day, while winds shift to the
northwest behind the front.

Lingering flurries or light snow are possible this evening,
particularly over central Missouri. Eventually this precipitation
will exit the area by early Monday morning. Overnight lows tonight
will drop into the teens.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)

Zonal flow will quickly evolve Monday and Tuesday, allowing for a
brief warm up. We could observe temperatures warming into the 50s
by Tuesday afternoon. Both Monday and Tuesday will remain dry.

Our next cold front will arrive on Wednesday, forcing a band of
snow to impact the region behind it. We think this east to west
oriented band of snow will progress through the area quickly,
leaving behind some very minor accumulations. Air temperatures
will certainly be cold enough for snow to stick to the ground, and
we could see amounts ranging from zero up to two inches Wednesday
night into Thursday morning. We`re still four to five days out, so
this forecast could adjust in the future.

Beyond Thursday, it appears as though a strong upper level ridge
of high pressure will build into the nation`s mid section by
Friday, and persist through the weekend. This will set up a
beautiful upcoming weekend, with temperatures possibly warming
into the 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1135 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

Light rain will persist all night with ceilings lowering through
the MVFR category. Confidence continues to be high that IFR
ceilings will develop across the region later tonight. This is
backed up by short term weather models and upstream observations.
One addition to the TAFs overnight was low level wind shear.

As we get into Sunday morning, the steadier rain will be replaced
with areas of drizzle and light rain showers. IFR is expected to
persist for much of the morning. A strong cold front will then
bring a wind shift to the west and then northwest later in the
morning. Winds will gust to 30 knots at times into Sunday evening.
This front may also bring another round of light rain and
drizzle.

Weather models then continue to indicate the potential for light
snow late Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening. It is tough to say
at this point if the snow will be heavy enough for appreciable
restrictions to visibility. The better chance for visibility
restrictions will be across central Missouri.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Schaumann