Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 062321
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
621 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

...Update to Aviation for 00Z TAFS...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri May 6 2016

Surface high pressure will shift to the east tonight and Saturday
allowing for increasing southerly winds during the day Saturday.
Meanwhile an upper level ridge and rising 500 MB heights will
shift into the region. So, after a cool night, we will see war
temperatures Saturday. Highs will generally climb into the lower
and possibly middle 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri May 6 2016

A more active weather pattern will unfold as we head through late
weekend into early next week as an upper level trough makes it way
across the southern Rockies.

A lead shortwave will eject northeastward Sunday while a front
attempts to settled southward into northern Missouri. Cannot
entirely rule out isolated convection early Sunday morning with
increasing warm air/moisture advectio but this activity would be
isolated at best. Additional isolated development will possible
during the Sunday but the focus of thunderstorm development will
be across the Plains into northern Missouri. This activity will
edge eastward with time but lose intensity during the night time
hours.

The primary shortwave will lift northeast across the southern
Plains Monday and become more negative tilt while a front pushes
slowly eastward. A more unstable environment along with an
increasingly favorable shear profile will promote at least the
potential for strong to severe storms Monday. The timing and
coverage of this activity remains uncertain as this will be
conditional on frontal position and degree of instability. In any
case, Monday should be monitored for the potential for severe
weather.

The unsettled pattern will persist next week as a series of
disturbances track eastward and interact with a meandering frontal
boundary.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Fri May 6 2016

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: VFR conditions will occur
across the area this evening through Saturday and beyond. High
pressure remains over the region allowing light winds to occur
this afternoon and will continue through this evening.

The area of high pressure will start to slide off to the south
allowing southerly winds to develop overnight and become more
southwesterly during the day on Saturday. Winds will increase
Saturday afternoon and will be gusty at times.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Wise


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