Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 300521
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1221 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

Conditions have destabilized rather quickly south of the frontal
boundary over south central MO which has remained rain free for
much of the morning and early afternoon. Surface based CAPES have
surged into the 2500-3000 j/kg range as dewpoints have increased
from the low 60s to low 70s on the south side of the front. Have
around 30-40 kts of 0-6km shear and 35 to 40 kts of 0-1km low
level shear. These would indicate the potential of supercells this
afternoon and evening with all modes of severe storms, including
the potential of isolated tornadoes.

Short term convective models continue to show several waves of
thunderstorms moving through the area for the remainder of the
afternoon through Sunday morning which will add to the significant
flooding already going on. All of our forecast river points are in
flood forecast with most into moderate or major flood categories
and a few might go into record breaking territory. We are still
going with an additional 2 to near 4 inches of widespread rainfall
across the area before rain ends during the day Sunday.

The upper low should shift from the 4 corners region into central
KS by mid morning Sunday with the dry slot beginning to edge into
the western CWA. This should transition eastward during the day
with the bulk of the precipitation shifting east of the area by
midday. Could still have residual showers/light rain through the
afternoon Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

With the large amplified ridge in place over the eastern U.S, the
upper low will move very slowly to the northeast through Monday.
Most of the wrap around moisture and associated precipitation
should remain north of the forecast area.

Another jetstreak start diving southeast into the northern Rockies
on Monday night which will begin to develop a trough and
eventually another closed upper low which will bring additional
precipitation to the area from Tuesday night into Thursday. Models
do have some differences, but all bring additional precipitation
and we are going another inch to inch and a half with this system.
Most of the instability will remain south of the area so we will
go with mainly isolated thunder in the southern part of the CWA
and showers across the north. Due to the significant ongoing
flooding though, additional rainfall will add to the flooding
issues.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

Pilots can expect a continuation of rain into the overnight but a
diminishing trend from the west. MVFR to locally IFR conditions
will be common with visibilties reduced in heavier rain. MVFR
ceilings will impact the area at times on Sunday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Foster



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