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000
FXUS63 KSGF 102318
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
618 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2014

...Update for Aviation...


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 240PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

A nearly zonal pattern east of the Rockies (00Z Tuesday) will give
way to a weak to moderate strength short wave trof from the
Northern Rockies progressing into the Central CONUS Tuesday Night
into Wednesday. At the surface...moderate but persistent
southwesterly flow will bring us the warmest temperatures this
season...with highs well into the 70s for Tuesday Afternoon.

A moderate strength (for late winter) Cold Front will push through
the area overnight Tuesday Night into Wednesday bringing some
precipitation and much colder air to the area. Included isolated
thunder ahead of the frontal passage tomorrow night as MU cape
(1000mb to 500mb) values range between 400j/Kg and about 900j/Kg
(Model dependent).

With and after frontal passage a period of light cold rain is
likely. This rain may mix briefly with snow over Central Missouri
before ending by dawn on Wednesday. No accumulation is forecast as
precipitation should taper off quickly and cloud ice is
questionable.

Given the only modest return of Gulf Moisture...QPF values will
be on the light side...ranging from about a third of an inch over
Central Missouri to a tenth of an inch or less toward the
Southwestern parts of the CWA.

Although Colder air will usher in Tuesday night into Wednesday...it
is of Western Canadian origin (not arctic) and no where near as cold
as we saw a week or so ago.  Expect lows Wednesday Morning to be in
the lower 30s with afternoon highs in the lower too middle
40s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 240PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

Northwest upper flow will persist through the period as ridging
dominates the West Coast and Inter mountain region most of the time.
At the surface...a dry spell and warming trend is on tap for
Thursday through Saturday as high pressure slides to the
Southeast.

Under the control of high pressure...temperatures should recover
into the upper 50s Thursday and into the lower 60s for Friday and
Saturday. A second...weak system will bring the risk of some light
rain to the area Saturday Night into Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 617 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF cycle. Breezy
southwest winds will decrease somewhat this evening, with LLWS
developing overnight. Similar to today, gusty southwest winds will
redevelop tomorrow during the mid morning hours. High clouds will
begin to increase tomorrow as well, with scattered precipitation
developing just after the end of this TAF period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Colucci
LONG TERM...Colucci
AVIATION...Boxell