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000
FXUS63 KSGF 181649
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1149 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 249 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Weak surface front has pushed through the area earlier in the
evening with an upper level shortwave currently swinging east
across the CWA. Mid level cloudiness continues behind the front in
association with the upper level shortwave. Some light fog was
developing over eastern Kansas into west central Missouri. The
cloud cover has helped to keep temperatures in the low 40s to low
50s so far tonight. Drier low levels of the atmosphere kept the
precipitation to not much more than sprinkles during the evening
as the front went through.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1145 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

We have nudged expected high temperatures up for this afternoon
roughly 2-4 degrees. Modification of the morning KSGF RAOB with
some modification for weak warm advection in the low levels of the
atmosphere should allow for highs in the lower 70s in most
locations. The remainder of the forecast is on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 249 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Shortwave energy currently moving through the area will dive to
the southeast today with a closed low expected to develop over the
deep south region later in the day. Weak high pressure in the
lower levels will keep things dry over the region. A split flow
aloft is expected with Omega waves in both the northern and
southern stream. The southern stream will be our predominant
weather focus during the short stream and will see upper level
ridging begin to build into the area later tonight. This will
begin to bring warmer temperatures into the area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

On Saturday, the ridge will be overhead with temperatures likely
warming back into the 70s. Another southern stream closed low will
begin to shear out with upper level energy moving into the region
from the southwest by late Saturday night. Initially dry
conditions in the atmosphere will keep any precipitation
associated with this shortwave energy to the west of the CWA.
However, precipitation chances should be on the increase in the
western CWA by late Sunday with this precipitation chance
expanding to the east Sunday night. The best chance of
precipitation looks to be on Monday as the main upper level trough
axis moves east into the region. May be enough instability for
isolated to scattered thunderstorms to occur, although not
expecting anything severe at this time. The precipitation chances
should end from northwest to southeast on Monday night as the
northern stream and southern stream seem to merge and a cold front
drops southeast through the area.

Another amplified ridge axis will push into the area late Tuesday
through Wednesday with a more significant low pressure area
developing out in the plains in advance of a deeper upper level
low out in the Rockies. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop ahead of this system by Thursday across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1145 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR flight conditions are expected through the next 24 hours.
Clear skies are forecast with high pressure over the region. Light
and variable winds will turn southerly overnight and into Saturday
morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Kardell