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000
FXUS63 KSGF 100314
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
914 PM CST Mon Dec 9 2013

.UPDATE...
Issued at 859 PM CST MON DEC 9 2013

We have increased storm total snow amounts into the 3 to 5 inch
range along and immediately north of the Interstate 44 corridor
from Joplin to Springfield to Lebanon. Radar indicates a quasi-
stationary band of 25 to 30 dBZ snow has remained over this region
all evening. This may be partially due to light northerly winds
resulting in upslope flow along the northern face of the Ozark
Plateau. Accumulations are also being aided by temperatures in the
middle to upper teens...which has resulted in snow to liquid
ratios around 20 to 1.

This band of heavier snow will begin to shift south and east in
the next 1-2 hours as upper level short wave energy approaches
from the west. We will then continue to see very light snow and
flurries overnight as that main upper level short wave passes over
the Ozarks. All snow will be out of the region before sunrise.

All forecast, outlook, and advisory products have been updated.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 144 PM CST MON DEC 9 2013

Mid level clouds have pushed back into the area as the next
shortwave was beginning to push into the area. Another cold air
mass was pushing into the area at the surface and with the cloud
cover and snow, temperatures have struggled in the low to mid 20s
today. Radar starting to pick up echoes from the mid level clouds
and should start to see some of this snow reaching the ground over
the next couple of hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 144 PM CST MON DEC 9 2013

For tonight...Some decent lift associated with the entrance region
of an upper level jet and approaching shortwave. Temperatures are
cold enough for all snow with this quick moving system. The
northern edge will be cut off by drier air moving into the area,
so there should be a fairly narrow band of measurable light snow
late this afternoon and tonight across the Ozarks into extreme
southeast Kansas. Previous forecast had amounts/advisory set up
pretty good. Have kept the advisory for the same locations and
slightly adjusted pops/timing and snow amounts. Roughly, it looks
like most areas in the advisory will receive about a half inch to
inch and a half of snow. Clearing should quickly take place during
the overnight hours after around 3 am from west to east.
Temperatures will remain rather cold with lows around 10 to 15
degrees tonight and wind chills approaching zero to minus 2.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 144 PM CST MON DEC 9 2013

Temperatures will remain cold through the rest of the week with
Canadian high pressure air masses over the region. A cold front
will pass through the area early Wednesday, but no precipitation
is expected due to a lack of available moisture.

The next weather maker for the region will be a cut off low that
moves onshore over southern California early Thursday. There is
fair model agreement with this system. This often is not the case
with cut off lows, but all the models depict a nice kicker
shortwave that will move into the pattern from the Pacific
Northwest. This seems to be driving the more certain forecast for
this event. We will likely see precipitation begin early on
Friday as rain, changing over to snow during early Saturday
morning. It`s a little to early to speculate much about amounts
at this time...but the current expected low track would be a
favorable one for some accumulating snowfall.

Drier conditions are expected on Sunday into early next week as
another cold Canadian high pushes into the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 520 PM CST MON DEC 9 2013

A band of snow is currently pushing east across the Joplin and
Springfield areas late this afternoon and is remaining north of
the Branson area. This band of snow will continue to spread east
and affect the KJLN and KSGF sites through much of this evening.
MVFR ceilings and IFR visibilities can be expected within this
snow. The snow will taper off late this evening from west to east.
The southern edge of this snow may clip the KBBG site late this
evening but the majority of this snow will remain north of the
KBBG site. One to three inches of snow can be expect at the KJLN
and KSGF sites through this evening, with a dusting possible at
the KBBG site.

High pressure will then begin to build to the southeast into the
region tonight into Tuesday. Skies will clear tonight into
Tuesday with VFR conditions expected on Tuesday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 3 AM CST Tuesday FOR MOZ057-058-
     068>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 3 AM CST Tuesday FOR KSZ097-101.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Kardell
AVIATION...Wise