Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 290914

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
414 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

Will monitor the southern extent of convection over northern MO
in the near term. Weak outflow boundary has made it into central
MO, but is weakening. Convection, or what`s left of it, lags the
sfc boundary, so at this point not expecting much.

It will be another very warm and somewhat breezy day today.
Another MCS is expected to develop/grow upscale from the corn
belt southwest into KS this afternoon and this evening as another
in series of shortwave impulses move form the Plains into the
Midwest. This area is expected to move se or sse as a low level
jet increases and it will have a better chance to move into our
forecast area this evening and overnight versus what we`ve had
tonight. While a weakening trend is expected tonight, strong/severe
winds may occur along/near the leading edge of the storms over
our northern counties. Convective allowing models (cams) vary on
the degree and timing of the weakening, but in general low level
vertical thermo profiles become less favorable with some capping.
Some lift behind the outflow boundary may allow some elevated
convection to develop farther south toward or just south of the
I-44 corridor late tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

Looks like an active period for thunderstorms throughout much of
this time. Heavy rainfall/potential flooding will also need to be
monitored as individual storm complexes/clusters move through the

Friday-Friday night: Convective boundaries/cold front will move
through the region during this time as a jet streak/shortwave
moves from the central Rockies into eastern KS and MO by early
evening. Strong afternoon instability (2000-2500 j/kg) ahead and
vertical shear with 0-6km 30-50kts m/l will be in place for
organized storms as limited capping breaks in the afternoon.
Initial development/redevelopment should occur along low level
convergence boundaries mid/late afternoon with large hail and
damaging winds the primary threats. Couldn`t rule out a tornado
early on as storms develop given the potential shear/vertical
thermo combination. Convection should gradually shift southeast
Fri night.

We will also have to monitor for areas of heavy rainfall,
especially over southern MO as the front becomes more w-e
oriented late Fri-Fri night. WPC is bullish on rain amounts. Fcst
database/grids/blends are not as bullish, but the overall setup
could be conducive for storm training depending on the small
scale setup.

Saturday-Saturday night: Global models vary on how far south the
front and precip will get pushed Sat/Sat night. The 00z ECMWF and
GDPS push the rain farther south versus the GFS. Split the
difference and left some lingering rain chances in for Saturday,
primarily in the morning.

Sunday-Monday-Monday night: Yet another shortwave is expected
to move into the central Plains/eastern KS by midday Sunday with
the front lifting back to the north over KS/western MO. Will
probably see additional small scale waves into Monday, but by this
time the mesoscale picture is muddy. With a diffuse boundary
expected to be in place with abundant moisture, it looks like a
good set up for periodic storms.

Tuesday July 4th-Wednesday: Another shortwave will approach, but
as an upper level ridge builds over the western CONUS, the
downstream shortwave separates from the main belt of westerlies
and slowly moves southeast into the region. Guidance is all over
the place with this overall pattern change, but the common theme
is the same, unsettled weather with chances for showers/storms.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

Conditions should remain VFR through tomorrow at the terminals.
LLWS is possible tonight at SGF and JLN, with gusty south winds
again expected on Thursday. Thunderstorms may eventually affect
the TAF sites very late tomorrow night, but most likely after 06Z.




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