Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 241526
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1026 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.UPDATE...
See update discussion below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updated zones and grids to expire the flash flood watch and reduce
Pops to mainly chance for today.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Band of showers and thunderstorms in the Concho Valley will spread
east and northeast to KABI and KBBD through mid morning, before
ending. A few showers also possible at KSOA and KJCT. MVFR ceilings
otherwise rise to VFR mid/late morning as drier southwest air moves
in. IFR/MVFR ceilings return to the I-10 corridor after midnight
as low level moisture returns.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
One more round of showers and thunderstorms will move across West
Central Texas as the main upper trough moves across the area.
Latest radar loop was showing a batch of rain with embedded areas of
heavy rain approaching the West Central Texas from Big Lake and
Iraan. Some of this rain could become heavy and result in
localized flash flooding of low lying areas through this morning.
For this reason, continued the flash flood watch through 10 AM.
Precipitation should end by this afternoon from west to east.

LONG TERM...
(Monday-Wed)
The next upper level shortwave trough should bring another round
of storms on Monday. With CAPE values approaching 2000 J/KG and
0-6KM shear values of 50KTS, there is a slight risk of severe
thunderstorms developing with large hail, damaging winds and
isolated tornadoes.

(Thursday-Saturday)
Look for a break from the storms Tues-Wed as weak shortwave ridging
takes place. Then as a broad upper trough develops across the
southwestern U.S, it will allow upper level disturbances to track
across the region Thursday through Friday. This pattern will
result in chances for thunderstorms each of those days. By
Saturday, a cold front is progged to move into the area and as it
will likely continue the chances for thunderstorms for next weekend.

Tuesday should be the warmest day with temps near 90.  With plenty
of moisture and cloud cover draped across West Central Texas
through this week, temperatures will remain mostly below normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  84  64  81  62  88 /  40  20  40  30  20
San Angelo  87  64  85  63  92 /  30  20  50  30  10
Junction  87  67  82  65  90 /  30  20  70  30  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99





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