Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KSJT 240419
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1119 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016


.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
Pushed back MVFR stratus formation at KSJT, KSOA and KJCT toward
more climatological favorable times 10-12Z, as indicated by the
SREF and NAM MOS guidance. Stratus, otherwise should lift to VFR
by midmorning. South wind gusts to 22 KTS otherwise expected by
mid morning as nighttime inversion breaks.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 924 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016/

UPDATE...

Quick update to remove POPs across northwest counties this
evening. Convection continues from the southern Texas Panhandle,
southwest across the Permian Basin region. Latest short range
model guidance keeps this activity west of the area for the
remainder of the evening and overnight hours, so POPs were
removed across the northwest counties this update. Otherwise,
made only some minor adjustments to cloud cover and temps for
the remainder of the overnight period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 626 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

MVFR stratus returns late tonight into early Wednesday morning.
Winds will decouple early this evening, with gusts to 22 KTS
mid morning Wednesday as the night time inversion breaks.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 337 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

Scattered thunderstorms were developing across the South Plains and
southeast New Mexico, due to weak upper level disturbances moving
northeast through the southwest flow and strong instability. The
storms may make it east into the northwest Big Country and Sterling
County(per the HRRR) after 00Z, and going with slight chance to
chance Pops for this evening. The main hazards from storms will be
wind gusts to 50 mph and dangerous lightning. Otherwise, a warm and
humid night with lows 70 to 75.

For Wednesday, An upper level high over the Lower Mississippi Valley
will be the main influence on our weather, with mainly warm and dry
conditions. Also, low level southerly flow will continue with wind
speeds of 15 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph. A few thunderstorms
are possible during the afternoon across far western portions.
Highs will be 90 to 95.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)

The subtropical ridge across the southeastern CONUS has begun to
push westward into the area today, and will continue to push west
over the next couple days. This will basically shut down
precipitation chances for our area through the end of the week.
Weak disturbances may move through in the flow to our east and
west on Friday, so have kept slight chances in there for that day.
Otherwise, the forecast should remain generally dry until early
next week when an upper level low will move west out of the Gulf
of Mexico towards our southern counties. Slight chance to chance
PoPs have been retained for the area as this feature moves toward
the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  72  93  71  92 /   5  10   5   5
San Angelo  72  92  70  94 /   5   5  10   5
Junction  71  92  69  92 /   0   0   0   5
Brownwood  71  92  70  92 /   0   5   5   5
Sweetwater  71  93  70  92 /  10  10  10  10
Ozona       71  90  69  91 /   5  10  10   5

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/04



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