Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 270457

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1157 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

/06Z TAFS/

Little change to forecast reasoning the next 24 hours. Stratus
is expected to develop across the southern terminals towards
daybreak, affecting primarily KJCT, KBBD and KSOA with MVFR
ceilings through late morning before scattering out to VFR.
Isolated convection may develop across the southern terminals
late tomorrow afternoon and early evening but a strong capping
inversion will likely inhibit development. Light south to
southeast winds tonight will become southwest at 10 to 15
knots on Saturday, diminishing to 10 knots or less after


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 700 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017/

/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue through much of the overnight
hours. Low clouds will develop and spread north across the
southern terminals after 08Z, with MVFR ceilings dominating
through mid to late morning, before scattering out to VFR.
Northern extent of stratus should reach near or just south
of the KSJT terminal and will maintain a TEMPO group for MVFR
ceilings for a couple of hours Saturday morning. Isolated
convection may develop across the southern terminals towards
the end of the forecast period but due to the sparse coverage,
will not mention at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 350 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017/

(Tonight and Saturday)

An upper level ridge over eastern Mexico, South Texas and the
adjacent Gulf of Mexico will remain in place through Saturday.
An upper trough will from the Intermountain West into the central
Rockies. Our area will be under west-southwest flow aloft between
these two systems. After near record high temperatures this
afternoon, temperatures will be warm tonight, as winds back to the
south and low-level moisture increases. Lows are only expected to be
mostly in the mid 70s, with a few lower 70s across our western
counties. Low cloud development/expansion is expected overnight and
early Saturday morning across much of the area southeast of an Ozona
to San Angelo to Albany line.

Low cloud cover is expected to breakup by mid- to late morning on
Saturday. Temperatures will be hot again Saturday, as low-level
thermal ridge remains strong across our area. Highs should range
from the mid 90s across the southeastern part of our area, to around
100 across much of the Concho Valley and Big Country. A dryline will
mix east across parts of West Central Texas and by late afternoon
should be just west of a Throckmorton-San Angelo-Ozona line. The
airmass will be very unstable but strongly capped east of the
dryline across our eastern and southeastern counties. One of the
CAMs shows isolated convective development between 5 PM and 7 PM
from Brown County to northeast of Menard. Decided to include a
mention of isolated thunderstorms in this time frame with a 10 PoP.
Will have a conditional severe thunderstorm risk with any storms
which can develop in that time frame. Hot and humid conditions can
be expected Saturday afternoon across the area from Brownwood to
Junction, with late afternoon heat indices of 101-103 degrees.


(Saturday night through Friday)

.Rain Potential Each Day...

The long-term forecast remains wet, with the potential for showers
and thunderstorms each period. Timing of the next cold front now
looks more like Sunday. Models this cycle indicate the cold front
should be south of our Interstate 10 corridor by mid afternoon
Sunday. If this timing is correct, the potential for severe
thunderstorms will be less like, mainly because destabilization
will be minimal. As the front stalls across South Texas, The
potential for elevated convection will continue into Monday. With
weak disturbances embedded in the southwest flow aloft, the
potential for showers and thunderstorms will continue through the
end of next week.


Abilene 102  75  99  69 /   0   5  10  20
San Angelo 103  74 100  72 /   0   5  10  20
Junction  98  74  95  74 /   0   5  10  20
Brownwood  97  74  95  72 /   0   5  10  20
Sweetwater 100  73  99  66 /   0   5   5  20
Ozona       97  73  98  72 /   0   5  10  20




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