Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 232349

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
649 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

/00Z TAFS/

Currently we have VFR conditions in place across all sites. This
should continue through most of the evening hours. After 06z
tonight, low clouds are expected to develop again to the south of
the area, and advance northward across our TAF locations. KJCT and
KSOA should be hit first, sometime between 06z and 09z, with
locations KSJT and KABI being last to see low clouds between 09z
and 12z Sunday morning. Although showers and thunderstorms to our
west will be slowly working their way to the east over the next
couple days, think that most of this activity should still be west
of the bulk of our TAF sites by tomorrow evening, and TAFs can be
updated if this changes in future forecasts. 20


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 333 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017/


A highly amplified upper level ridge continues to sit across the
central U.S. Much of west Texas continues to sit at the base of
this upper level ridge that is wedged between deep upper level
troughs. A line of showers and thunderstorms will develop across
the Permian Basin this evening ahead of an advancing upper level
trough. These showers and thunderstorms may reach the far western
portions of Crockett county and the western Concho Valley late
tonight, and have included 20% POPs in these areas. For the rest
of the area, tonight`s weather will be a repeat of what we have
been seeing the past couple of nights. Abundant low level moisture
will allow for low clouds to develop late tonight. The increase
in cloud coverage will help keep overnight temperatures warm, with
overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.


Ongoing widespread showers and thunderstorms over the Permian
Basin, will be continue to move east, as the deep upper level
trough over the west coast continues to slowly approach west
Texas. Rain chances will increase from west to east throughout the
day. These rain showers and embedded thunderstorms will be
efficient rain producers. Surface to 500mb relative humidity
values in the range of 75-85%, and a deep warm layer aloft,
indicate the potential for heavy rainfall. Minor flash flooding is
possible across low water crossings and in poor drainage areas.
Some areas could see rainfall totals around 0.50" and 0.75". The
rain activity will slowly spread east throughout the day and
should reach San Angelo and Abilene by tomorrow afternoon. The
increased cloud cover will allow for temperatures to be cooler
than what we have seen the past couple of days. Highs will be in
the mid to upper 80s across the area.


(Sunday night through Saturday)

..Possible Flash Flooding...

Flash Flooding remains a concern for this next work week. Models
this forecast cycle remain relatively consistent, regarding the
upper pattern. A well developed upper trough will dominate much of
the Nation west of the Rockies. All indicators point to the
potential for high rainfall amounts, across much of West Central
Texas, early to mid week. Models indicate upper forcing will be
present, along with deep moisture. In addition, cold frontal
passage mid week still looks likely. The latest 7-day QPF outlook,
from The Weather Prediction Center, indicates much of West
Central Texas may receive as much as 4 to 8 inches, especially
locations west of a line from Junction, to Coleman, to
Throckmorton. Model forecast soundings, for Abilene and San
Angelo, indicate Precipitable Water ranging from 1.5 inches to
near 2 inches, for the Tuesday through Friday periods. Thus, high
rainfall amounts are possible, along with the potential for Flash


Abilene  69  85  69  83 /   5  10  30  50
San Angelo  70  85  69  82 /   5  20  40  60
Junction  69  87  69  84 /   5  20  20  30
Brownwood  68  87  69  85 /   5  10  10  20
Sweetwater  70  84  68  80 /  10  30  40  70
Ozona       70  85  68  81 /  10  20  50  60



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