Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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FXUS65 KSLC 281529
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
929 AM MDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A mid level Low over northern Arizona will continue
to move east to the four corners today. High pressure building in
from the west in wake of this Low will allow for a drying and
warming trend for the first part of the upcoming week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Morning water vapor and H5 analysis depict rising
heights across the eastern Great Basin, with the gradually
decaying mid level low that`s been impacting the south now in the
vicinity of the 4-corners region. Continued convergence on the NW
periphery of this aforementioned low has maintained isolated to
widely scattered showers across the southeast this morning, though
net forcing has been diminishing as has available moisture to work
with.

Destabilization today will be modest at best along the central
mountain spines, with flow allowing any developed convection to
take a general S-SW track off the terrain. This said, instability
parameters across the central mountains and points south should
peak late this morning/early afternoon then gradually wane as mid
level subsidence and drier air aloft work in from the west. The
main take away moving ahead through Tuesday phases towards this
more dominant ridging/subsidence/drying across the area with a net
warming trend anticipated to be realized.

Only made minor tweaks to PoPs/Sky today through this evening in
latest update.

&&

.AVIATION...Operational weather concerns will remain minimal at
the KSLC terminal through the valid TAF period. Southerly surface
winds currently in place are expected to diminish mid day, with a
switch to the northwest anticipated in the 19-20z window per
norm. This said, a 20 percent chance exists this wind switch will
not occur until 20-21z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Yesterday`s ERC values were at or above the 97th
percentile across portions of northern Utah, while stations across
southern Utah remain below the 50th percentile.

A warming and drying trend will prevail into mid week. Convection
will become more isolated, diurnal in nature, and tied to the
terrain especially by tomorrow. Still a chance for wetting rains
under showers today, but these should remain largely isolated or
widely scattered over the higher terrain.

Southerly winds look to increase across the western valleys
Tuesday though critical fire weather conditions expected to be
isolated, limited by sub-critical gusts most locations. Dry
microburst winds may be supported due to high-based showers during
the late afternoon and evening hours in this area as well. Similar
conditions need to be monitored for the same area during the
second half of the work week.

A monsoon push will increase the coverage of thunderstorms during
the second half of the work week, supporting a gradual cooling
and moistening trend and another round of lightning.

&&

.SLC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

Merrill


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