Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 261513
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
813 AM PDT THU MAY 26 2016


.SYNOPSIS...
Afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms across Northern
California through early next week. Warm weather will continue
through the holiday weekend, with breezy north winds Fri-Sat.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Northwesterly flow aloft persists over Northern California today,
with high pressure over the eastern Pacific and an upper trough
centered near the Four Corners region. Mostly clear skies prevail
across the region under this regime, except for a fair bit of
marine stratus along the Bay Area coast.

A warming trend begins in earnest today as the eastern Pacific
ridge strengthens. Look for highs across the Sacramento Valley in
the mid 80s, with 60s and 70s over the mountains. These highs are
4 to 8 degrees warmer than normal. Temperatures will continue to
warm the next several days, reaching the upper 80s to around 90 on
Friday across the Valley, and upper 80s to lower 90s through
Memorial Day weekend.

An upper trough will pass through the Pacific Northwest Friday,
and form a weak upper low over central and southern California
over the weekend. This will lead to a period of northerly winds
Fri-Sat. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will also likely be a
daily occurrence over the mountains through the holiday weekend,
including today. The greatest areal coverage of this convection
currently looks to be Saturday, as the upper low forms and flow
aloft turns a light southeasterly.

Dang

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Monday THROUGH Thursday)

High pressure ridging dominates NorCal Monday through midweek with
dry, warm weather. Monday and Tuesday will be the warmest days
next week with valley highs in the low to mid 90s, higher terrain
highs in the 60s (Sierra Crest) to 80s (foothills). These daytime
highs will measure 7 to 10 degrees above normal for this time of
year. On Wednesday, slight cooling trend begins as the ECMWF and
GFS indicate a strong low in the Gulf of Alaska approaching the
West Coast...as the ridge axis moves eastward into the Great
Basin. Models differ on when precipitation may move inland
(Thursday vs Friday), but this is beyond the 7 day forecast.
JBB

&&

.AVIATION...

Mainly VFR conditions for TAF sites with winds generally 5 to 12 kts
today. MVFR clouds forming in the Bay Area and moving into the
Delta Region. Isold to SCT showers and thunderstorms with MVFR to
locally IFR conditions along western Sierra slopes aft 19Z. JBB

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$


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