Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA
FXUS66 KSTO 121650
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
850 AM PST FRI FEB 12 2016
Dry and mild weather through early next week with well above
normal temperatures. Wetter and cooler weather pattern expected
middle to latter portion of next week.
High amplitude ridging near 115 W as short wave trof begins
pushing into the PacNW. Associated frontal system extends
southwest into the EPAC with considerable amounts of CI/CS
streaming ahead of it into NorCal. Cloudiness helped limit
morning valley fog production with mainly some patchy BR/FG observed
around the Sacramento area southward into the Northern San Joaquin
Valley. Baroclinic zone undergoes frontolysis today as it moves
inland along the NW CA coast. Variable mid to high level clouds
will be the result for our forecast area with no precipitation.
High temps today expected to continue well above normal and within
a few degrees of Thursday.
Heights and thicknesses progged to increase over the weekend as
upper ridge amplifies off the West Coast. High temperatures
forecast mainly in the lower 70s for the Central Valley which is
upwards of 10 to 12 degrees above normal and near record values.
Some patchy morning valley fog will continue to be possible over
the weekend in the Southern Sacramento and Northern San Joaquin
Another weak weather system rides over the ridge Sunday with some
light overrunning precip possible into far northern portions of
CA. However associated precip continues to be modeled north of
our forecast area. Surface high pressure building through Oregon
into the Great Basin will result in some locally breezy northerly
wind from Sunday afternoon into Monday. High temps expected to
slowly trend up over the weekend into Monday with values
approaching record values around the Sacramento area.
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Tuesday THROUGH Friday)
High pressure will remain in control over California through
Tuesday of next week. By Wednesday, moisture in advance of the
next weather system should start to spill into the interior.
While confidence continues to increase in wet weather for NorCal,
there are significant differences in timing and strength. The bulk
of the precipitation centers around Thursday. The GFS and GEM are
considerably faster and weaker with the wave than the ECMWF. Snow
levels are currently projected to drop down to around 5000 feet.
The ECMWF and GEM suggest a secondary weaker wave moving through
the region next Friday. Confidence is lower in that system
SWly flow alf vrg to NWly Sat. Vrbl clds AOA FL120 for Intr NorCal
nxt 24 hrs with VFR conds exc isold MVFR/IFR/LIFR poss in Srn
Sac/Nrn San Joaquin vlys in BR/FG btwn 10z-18z Sat.