Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 251957
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
257 PM EST WED NOV 25 2015
.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
East to northeast low level flow will continue tonight with surface
ridging centered off the New England coast. Some increase in low
level moisture from the Atlantic is expected with some increase in
cloud cover tonight, although it will remain dry. Overnight lows
are expected to range from the lower 50s across the north to the
upper 50s near the coast.
.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...
High pressure well to the northeast of the region will remain in
control of the weather through the short term period. Moderate
easterly flow will continue to bring Atlantic moisture into the
region, and with partly cloudy skies expected, high temperatures
should warm into the mid to upper 70s across the region. Overnight
lows should also be rather mild, generally in the mid 50s.
.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...
By Saturday, surface high pressure will be nearer to the region,
with ridging building over the NE Gulf of Mexico. A storm system
across the Central Plains will approach the southeast, but the
ridge of high pressure will win out and keep this system well to
the north of the forecast area. Dry and warm conditions should
continue through Sunday, before the models begin to diverge on the
next storm system to pass through the region late Monday into
Tuesday. Significant differences between the Euro and GFS
complicate the forecast for this time frame. Given the
uncertainty, will keep a 20 percent chance of rain in the forecast
from Monday through the end of the period. High temperatures
throughout the period will be above normal, generally in the mid
to upper 70s.
[Through 18Z Thursday] VFR conditions are expected for the
remainder of today. Later tonight, guidance is indicating that
some patchy fog could develop with increasing low level moisture
out of the east, but easterly winds are expected to remain greater
than 5 knots, which is generally unfavorable for fog. It seems
more likely that there will be some lower ceilings developing
instead. Ceilings are expected to lift by mid to late morning on
Thursday with easterly winds occasionally gusty around 12-18
An extended period of strong easterly flow over the marine area
will result in advisory conditions through Friday morning.
Thereafter, high pressure will move nearer to the marine area,
resulting in lighter winds and seas into the weekend.
There are no fire weather concerns.
The Choctawhatchee River at Bruce has crested and will start to
fall over the next few days. However, the river will remain above
action stage through at least the end of the month.
With no significant rains anticipated for the next several days,
there are no flood concerns.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 57 76 57 78 55 / 10 10 10 0 0
Panama City 59 76 59 76 58 / 10 10 10 0 0
Dothan 53 72 55 75 54 / 10 10 10 0 0
Albany 52 73 55 76 52 / 10 10 10 0 0
Valdosta 55 77 56 78 55 / 10 10 10 0 0
Cross City 58 80 56 79 57 / 10 10 10 0 0
Apalachicola 60 76 60 76 59 / 10 10 10 0 0
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM CST this evening FOR South
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Thursday
FOR Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to
Ochlockonee River Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from
Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday FOR Coastal Waters
From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-
Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.