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000
FXUS62 KTAE 060815
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
315 AM EST Fri Dec 6 2013

...Near Record High Temperatures Expected Again Today...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
Early morning subjective analysis places a sharp cold front from
near Chattanooga, to Tuscaloosa, to Jackson MS. We appear to be
far enough removed from the front that rain chances over the next
6-12 hours should remain fairly low. EOX radar did show some very
small, light showers just west of our area in Covington County, AL
05-07z. A small area of 15-20% PoPs was included in the western
row of counties to account for this through 18z.

Thus far, fog has not been much of an issue with only a few
stations reporting any visibility restrictions and none below 1
mile. We scaled back the areal coverage of fog in the grids to fit
with the latest probabilistic guidance from our local CAM ensemble
and SREF. We can`t rule out some isolated dense fog, but it
doesn`t appear like it will be a widespread issue this morning.

Highs yesterday exceeded model expectations, and an examination
of the past three days worth of 00z soundings from TAE show
consistent warming trend below 700mb. Given that the low-level
temperature profile should be no cooler today, we opted for a
persistence forecast in large part, with highs very close to
yesterday`s low 80s - which produced some records. Late in the day
the cold front to the NW should have moved close enough that NW
parts of our forecast area should experience a greater degree of
low-level forcing. This should be sufficient for some scattered
showers, particularly in southeast Alabama. Average forecast
sounding from NAM, RAP, and GFS at DHN shows some convective
instability with a tall, skinny CAPE profile. This could be
sufficient for some isolated thunderstorms too.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday]...
A shortwave, exiting the mean western trough, will weaken the
periphery of the strong upper ridge overnight. This will allow the
cold front to advance southeastward into the local forecast area.
Scattered showers will be possible along and behind the front
tonight. While PoPs will be relatively high over the northwestern
zones, rainfall amounts are expected to be very light given the
lack of synoptic forcing.

A substantially colder airmass will slide in behind the front on
Saturday. This will make the max temperature forecast highly
dependent on exactly how far into the area the front gets before
stalling. Current thinking is that the front will make it very
close to Tallahassee during the afternoon before stalling. To the
northwest, temperatures will fall behind the front, with max
temperatures in SE Alabama likely occurring close to sunrise.
Southeast of the front, the unseasonably warm weather will
continue with highs in the upper 70s to around 80.

As the aforementioned shortwave moves into New England and the
western trough reloads late on Saturday, the upper ridge will
flex back to the northwest, with the frontal boundary retreating
rapidly to the north. This will result in the warm airmass
spreading back across the entire forecast area for Sunday, with
highs back in the mid 70s to near 80 for the entire region.

&&

.LONG TERM [Sunday Night through Thursday]...
One more warm day will occur on Monday before a stronger cold
front crosses the entire forecast area from Monday night into
Tuesday. We could see some isolated thunderstorms out ahead of the
front Monday afternoon. Once again PoPs will be in the chance
category. Much cooler air will arrive behind this front with
daytime highs ranging from the mid 50s in Coffee County AL to
around 70 in Dixie County FL. Wednesday will be the coolest day
with highs in the 50s northwest of a TLH-VLD line. At this point,
it does now appear that a freeze will occur, although lows will
drop into the mid 30s across our extreme northwestern zones by
sunrise Wednesday. TLH should get no lower than 40 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION [through 06 UTC Saturday]...
Probabilistic guidance is very consistent in showing the best chance
for IFR-LIFR CIGS late tonight and early in the morning over the
western parts of our area: affecting ECP and DHN. This is where we
included more persistent low CIGS. At TLH and VLD there is still a
chance for some periods of dense fog, but confidence is lower there.
At ABY, guidance suggests the chances of IFR CIGS or VIS is low.
Models then indicate that an MVFR ceiling may linger in the west
through the day (ECP + DHN), with VFR elsewhere.

&&

.MARINE...
Southerly flow will continue across the waters today ahead of an
approaching the cold front. Winds over the western waters will
become offshore late tonight into Saturday, before becoming
southeasterly again on Sunday. Winds and seas are currently
forecast to remain below headline criteria through the forecast
period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Relative humidity values will remain above critical thresholds
through the forecast period; therefore no red flag conditions are
expected. Poor mixing and fog is expecte the next several nights
and mornings.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Total rainfall amounts over the next 5 days should range from
roughly an inch northwest of Dothan to less a quarter inch over
the southeastern half of the HSA. This will have only minimal
impacts on area rivers and streams.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   82  65  74  57  77 / 10  30  30  20  10
Panama City   77  64  67  56  75 / 20  40  40  20  10
Dothan        81  55  60  51  75 / 30  60  40  20  20
Albany        81  63  68  54  74 / 10  40  50  30  20
Valdosta      85  63  76  58  78 / 10  20  30  20  10
Cross City    82  60  80  56  79 / 10  10  20  10  10
Apalachicola  75  67  72  59  72 / 10  30  30  20  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...Lamers
SHORT TERM...Camp
LONG TERM...Wool
AVIATION...Lamers
MARINE...Camp
FIRE WEATHER...Lamers
HYDROLOGY...McDermott/Camp