Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 251725
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1225 PM EST Sun Feb 25 2018

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Monday]...

Showers will continue to spread across the TAF sites this
afternoon. Additional showers are expected late tonight into
Monday morning with the better chances across the DHN area. An
isolated TSRA cannot be ruled out. As the western line of showers
pushes through this afternoon, wind gusts of 25-30kts can be
expected. Vsbys and cigs will decrease tonight with LIFR cigs
expected by morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [911 AM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

The large upper level trough that had remained nearly stationary
across the western and central CONUS for the previous few days
will gradually push eastward today, with a strengthening jet
streak on its eastern flank. Under this feature, a cold front at
the surface will accelerate and push southeastward, approaching
the northwestern corner of our CWA late this afternoon into the
early evening. Moisture will continue to increase throughout the
day ahead of these features, and chances of rain showers will
increase due to the increasing forcing and deep layer moisture.
During the afternoon, a line of showers and isolated thunderstorms
is likely to move into southeast AL and northern parts of
southwest GA, with lesser chances farther south and east. High
temperatures will remain very warm ahead of the front, with lower
to mid 80s inland and upper 70s along the Gulf Coast.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Tuesday]...

Showers and isolated thunderstorms will remain likely from tonight
through Monday as the cold front moves southeastward across our
area. While deep layer shear will increase to around 40 kts
tonight, little to no instability will be present so severe
weather appears unlikely at this time. On Monday, SBCAPE could
increase up to 500-1000 J/kg along and ahead of the front.
Combined with 0-6 km shear around 40 kts, this could result in
strong wind gusts in any organized lines or line segments of
showers/storms. Expect rain chances to decrease behind the front
on Monday night, with only slight chances of showers across parts
of our area through Tuesday. Starting on Monday, temperatures
will be slightly cooler than the previous week due to the rain
chances and frontal passage. Highs will generally remain in the
70s each day, with Monday night`s lows ranging from mid-upper 50s
northwest to lower-mid 60s southeast.


.LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...

Slightly warmer temperatures and chances of rain will return from
Wednesday through Thursday, as moist southerly flow develops
across our area ahead of an upper level trough. As this feature
moves eastward, a cold front will move through our area on
Thursday, bringing the best chances of rain during this period.
Dry conditions will return to our area in the wake of the front
from Friday through the weekend, with much cooler temperatures
across our area during this time. Highs on Wednesday and Thursday
will range from mid 70s to lower 80s, dropping to upper 60s and
lower 70s on Friday and Saturday. Inland lows are expected to
drop into the 40s on Friday night and Saturday night.


.MARINE...

A dense fog advisory is in effect early this morning for
nearshore marine zones in western and central Apalachee Bay.
Southerly winds around 10 knots will prevail today and tonight,
with seas generally from 2 to 3 feet across our marine zones.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Although high dispersion values are forecast for our eastern areas
today, no fire weather concerns are expected as a result of high
RH values.


.HYDROLOGY...

Periods of showers and isolated thunderstorms are likely from
this afternoon through Monday for our northern areas, with
decreasing chances south and east across our area. Flooding is not
expected at this time, as forecast amounts range from around 1"
northwest to less than 0.1" southeast.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   65  79  61  75  60 /  20  50  20  10  10
Panama City   68  75  62  73  64 /  30  60  20  20  10
Dothan        65  73  55  72  59 /  50  80  10  20  20
Albany        64  73  55  70  57 /  30  70  20  10  20
Valdosta      64  79  60  72  57 /  10  60  30  10  10
Cross City    63  82  63  78  60 /  20  20  20  10  10
Apalachicola  67  77  64  73  64 /  20  40  20  20  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay-South
     Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Fieux
SHORT TERM...Lahr
LONG TERM...Lahr
AVIATION...Fieux
MARINE...Humphreys
FIRE WEATHER...Lahr
HYDROLOGY...Lahr



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