Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 211335

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
935 AM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016


No updates were necessary to the forecast for today. See near term
discussion below.


.AVIATION [Through 12Z Saturday]...

As expected, MVFR ceilings immediately accompany the front this
morning. However, they seem to extend the full length of the front
across the local area. Thus, expect a brief (1-2hr) period of MVFR
cigs at each terminal this morning/early afternoon. DHN will now
likely remain VFR all day as the front has cleared east of the
terminal. Gusty northwest winds 20 to 25 knots should be expected
through the day at all terminals in the wake of the front.



.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
Tracking the dry cold front though the CWA this morning with timing
roughly 04-06 ET across SE AL and western FL panhandle counties, 07-
09 ET across the SW GA and central FL panhandle counties, and 10-12
ET through the FL Big Bend and the rest of SW GA. Again, little
moisture to work with so no precipitation expected. Breezy northwest
winds will accompany the front with gusts up to 25 MPH. High
temperatures will be cooler with western extent through the CWA
given the earlier frontal passage. Readings will be in the mid-upper
70s west of the Flint/Apalachicola rivers and lower 80s east of this

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday]...
With the cold front expected to be well to the east of the region
by tonight, much cooler and drier air will continue to pour into
the region. High pressure by Saturday morning will still be back
across the Southern Mississippi Valley, so a breezy cool advective
regime overnight should result in fairly uniform temperatures
across the region in the mid 40s. Overnight lows were last in the
40s in Tallahassee on May 7th.

Throughout the day on Saturday, surface high pressure will spread
eastward and eventually center over the Southeastern States by
Sunday morning. Even with full sunshine on Saturday, temperatures
will only warm into the mid 70s across the region with relative
humidities in the low 20 percent range in the afternoon.

With the high pressure area essentially in place across the region
by Sunday morning, a very favorable environment for strong
radiational cooling will be in place. Model guidance has been
trending slightly cooler with some of the gridded guidance showing
lows Sunday morning into the upper 30s. With the high centered
nearly overhead and a dry atmosphere, will trend the low
temperature forecast down a couple of degrees, which results in
lows across the inland areas in the 40-43 degree range.

With the high in place over the region on Sunday, expect a sunny
day with temperatures a little warmer than on Saturday. It`s
possible a few sites will reach 80 degrees Sunday afternoon.

.LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Friday]...
After one additional night of chilly temperatures Sunday night,
the local airmass will begin to modify and warm through the
middle of the week. High pressure building off the Mid Atlantic
Coast on Tuesday night will start a period of moderate easterly
flow across the Eastern Gulf Coast States which will result in an
increase in cloud cover and temperatures essentially returning to
climo, with lows in the mid 50s and highs right around 80.

Winds will increase to advisory levels behind a cold front today
and remain strong into Saturday. Winds at cautionary levels are
possible Saturday night before high pressure settles over the
marine area, keeping winds and seas low from Sunday through

A cold front will move through the region this morning with much
cooler and drier air in its wake through the weekend. Relative
humidity values will drop to near 30 percent across SE Alabama and
southwest Georgia this afternoon which is above critical thresholds.
Relative humidity values will drop even lower Saturday afternoon,
possibly close to 20 percent in spots. However, other necessary red
flag criteria are unlikely to be met.

No rain is expected over the next several days, thus there are no
flood concerns.



Tallahassee   82  49  76  43  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   78  53  74  50  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        77  45  75  43  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        79  46  75  43  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      83  47  74  43  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    85  47  76  40  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  80  52  74  49  76 /   0   0   0   0   0



GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Saturday for Apalachee Bay
     or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River Fl
     out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to
     Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee
     River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM-Coastal waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee
     River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.



NEAR TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM...Godsey
HYDROLOGY...Godsey is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.