Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 270108

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
908 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
At 00 UTC surface analysis shows an area of high pressure off the
Atlantic Coast and a strong storm system across the Central
Plains. With our region between these two features, southerly flow
is in place across the area. With increased low level moisture and
clearing skies overnight, expect areas of fog to develop across
the area, especially west of the Apalachicola/Chattahoochee
Rivers. Should also be another warm night with lows generally in
the upper 50s to near 60 degrees.



.SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

Weak upper level and surface ridging will be in place at the
beginning of the short term. This upper level ridging is pushed
eastward though by Monday night as a shortwave moves into the
Tennessee Valley. The cold front associated with this system moves
into the southeast Monday night and while the main surface low
shifts to the mid-Atlantic by Tuesday evening with the front also
shifting eastward, a portion of the boundary will linger near the
CWA on Tuesday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be
possible mainly inland on Monday and while there is the lingering
boundary north of the CWA on Tuesday, an upper level ridge builds
in later in the day, helping to limit convection.

High temperatures will continue to be above average with highs in
the low to mid 80s, except 70s along the coast. Lows will range
from the upper 50s to lower 60s.

.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

Surface and upper level ridging will help to make for a mainly dry
start to the long term. Widespread rain chances will return for
Friday as a cold front moves through the CWA. There is a decent
amount of instability and shear with the system and thus the
severe potential will need to be monitored, but given the system
is still 5 days out, there is time for the setup to change.
The area will dry out for Saturday.

.AVIATION [Through 00Z Tuesday]...
VFR conditions will prevail through the evening hours. Fog and low
cloudiness is expected to develop after 06-08z across the region.
Guidance is quite pessimistic suggesting LIFR conditions at all
sites but VLD. Will follow the previous forecast and the latest
guidance with these conditions and show improvement to VFR at all
sites between 14-15z Monday. Southerly winds of 10-14kt are
expected Monday afternoon.


Winds will generally remain 10 knots or less through mid-week but
winds and seas will increase to cautionary levels late in the week
as a cold front moves through. This front on Friday will also
bring the best rain chances to the marine area over the next week.


Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days with
relative humidity values remaining above critical levels.


Rainfall amounts will be limited through much of the week. A cold
front will push through Friday bringing widespread rain to the
area. The system is forecast to push through the tri-state area
quickly and thus at this point, there are no flooding concerns.



Tallahassee   58  82  58  83  59 /   0  10   0  10   0
Panama City   62  75  64  75  63 /   0  10   0  10   0
Dothan        59  83  61  82  61 /  10  20  10  20  10
Albany        59  84  62  84  62 /  20  20  20  20   0
Valdosta      58  83  58  84  60 /  20  20   0  10   0
Cross City    57  82  57  83  57 /  10  10   0  10   0
Apalachicola  61  76  62  77  62 /   0  10   0  10   0



FL...High Rip Current Risk until 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening
     for Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-South Walton.




NEAR TERM...Godsey
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