Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 291712

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
112 PM EDT Mon May 29 2017

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Tuesday]...

Expect mainly VFR conditions today, but conditions could
deteriorate to LIFR to MVFR again overnight. Large area of high
clouds this morning and shower activity may help to limit
convection this afternoon. With lower chances, have cut back on
mention of VCTS in the TAFs. Better chances of a site seeing an
isolated SHRA/TSRA would be at the northern sites (DHN, ABY and



.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

A weakening MCS continues to move eastward across Mississippi as of
3 AM, although showers and a few thunderstorms are starting to
develop along an outflow boundary on the southern edge of this
feature in southeastern MS. Latest CAMs differ on the handling of
this feature, but some suggest that a cluster of showers and
thunderstorms will make it as far eastward as SE Alabama and the FL
Panhandle. Despite some dry air at mid levels, there is very moist
air at lower levels and ample instability near the Gulf Coast with
SBCAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg and little to no CIN in this area
(increasing CIN farther inland). As a result, it is possible that
scattered showers and thunderstorms could make it to our western
zones in the morning before dissipating, and therefore I have
increased chances of showers and thunderstorms to 30-50 percent in
the FL Panhandle and SE Alabama during this time.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible
across most of our area in the afternoon and evening hours when
ample instability is expected to develop (SBCAPE from 2000-3000 J/kg
across our area), and leftover outflow boundaries from the
aforementioned MCS could provide forcing. Chances will be highest
across our northwestern areas where deep layer moisture will be
present (PWAT values increasing to near 2" during the late afternoon
and evening), and lowest in the eastern FL Big Bend where mid-level
dry air will be present. A marginal risk of severe thunderstorms is
possible across our northern areas, where the moderate-high
instability will combine with around 30 kts of effective bulk shear
to create potential for isolated damaging wind and/or hail. Hot and
humid conditions will continue, with highs in the low-mid 90s across
SW Georgia and inland FL Big Bend. Highs should remain in the 80s
near the Gulf Coast and across our western areas, where ample cloud
cover is expected to persist for much of the day.

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Wednesday]...

The upper-level pattern over the CONUS will be characterized
primarily by a broad, fairly strong trough centered over the Great
Lakes. This will keep the storm tracks well to our north. At the
surface, our forecast area will be on the western extent of the West
Atlantic ridge. Precip Water values will be near average at about
1.50 inches. In the absence of significant synoptic scale forcing,
we will rely on mesoscale boundary interactions to trigger daily
thunderstorms, primarily through the sea breeze fronts and outflow
boundaries from any nearby storm clusters. Daytime PoPs will range
from 20 to 40%, which is close to average for the beginning of our
summer rainy season. While neither the CAPE nor deep-layer shear
appear impressive, localized updraft enhancement could allow a storm
or two to briefly become marginally severe.

.LONG TERM [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...

Nearly zonal upper-level flow over the Southeast will gradually
morph into a broad longwave trough by the weekend. The consensus of
global models forecasts a gradual increase in deep-layer moisture
across our region, which, along with southwest flow aloft, would
generally correlate to increasing rain chances later this week and
into the weekend. Temperatures on Thursday will be near normal
with lows around 70 and highs in the lower 90s. However, as clouds
and rain chances increase, highs will "only" be in the upper 80s.


With a high pressure ridge near the area, west to southwest winds
will mainly be less than 15 knots with significant waves less than 3
feet. Winds and chop will tend to be a little higher near the coast
each afternoon as the daily sea breeze develops.


Although dispersion values could briefly exceed critical
thresholds this afternoon, no fire weather concerns are
anticipated due to light winds and minimum RH values remaining
well above critical thresholds.


Organized heavy rain is unlikely, but isolated heavy rain is
possible each afternoon over the next several days. Area rivers were
below their local action stages.



Tallahassee   70  90  70  90  70 /   0  30  20  30  20
Panama City   74  84  72  84  73 /  10  20  10  20  10
Dothan        70  85  68  88  69 /  20  40  20  40  20
Albany        70  88  69  89  69 /  30  40  20  30  20
Valdosta      70  91  69  90  69 /  20  30  20  40  20
Cross City    70  92  70  92  70 /   0  10  10  30  20
Apalachicola  72  86  72  87  72 /   0  10  10  10  10



FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.




LONG TERM...Fournier
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