National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS62 KTAE 250239
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1039 PM EDT Thu Jul 24 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The showers and storms have lingered a bit longer this evening
than the past 2, but as we approach 11 pm EDT, only a few lone
cells remain over the interior. The convection over the coastal
waters appears to be a bit more active tonight due to the upper
low which is pushing to the NE off the W coast of the FL Peninsula
and the old boundary well to the SW of the FL Panhandle, so raised
PoPs to 20% from 00 to 06 UTC, with the in place 30% PoPs from 06
to 12 UTC looking just right as the SW flow continues.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Saturday] All convection has diminished this evening.
There is a possibility of brief and patchy light fog overnight at
DHN, ABY and VLD. Then, the typical summertime scattered diurnal
convection will develop during the afternoon hours with VCTS shown
at the terminals.

&&

.Prev Discussion [318 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...
The trough that has been in place across the Southeastern US will
continue to weaken and move eastward as high pressure builds
across Southern Florida and westward into Texas. As ridging aloft
gradually returns to our region, expect a downward trend in rain
chances into the weekend. Still expect 30 to 40 percent rain
chances on Friday with moderate southwesterly flow in place,
though the departing trough should lead to less rain chances than
on Thursday.

By Saturday, ridging continues to slowly build across the region
along with an increase in mid level dry air from the south. These
two factors combined suggest lower storm coverage on Saturday.
Additionally, temperatures will be on the rise with highs in the
mid 90s inland and lower 90s along the coast. Expect max daily
heat indices to top out in the 100 to 105 degree range as well.


.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...
While initially, a typical summertime pattern will be in place
across the Southern United States at the start of the period, expect
the pattern to rapidly amplify by Monday as a large trough digs
southward out of Canada. Some of the guidance suggests this trough
will be strong enough to help push a cold front into and possibly
past the forecast area on Tuesday delivering another brief but
noticeable cool and dry period to the region through Wednesday. The
upper pattern thereafter looks to stagnate with strong ridging
building over the Rockies and across the Western North Atlantic
keeping the deep trough in place from the Ohio Valley to the
Northeastern Gulf. This will yield slightly cooler and less humid
conditions by the end of the period with only modest rain chances.


.Marine...
High pressure will dominate the marine area through the weekend
yielding light southwesterly flow. By Monday, an approaching
frontal boundary will result in increasing southwesterly winds and
building seas, perhaps approaching cautionary levels by Monday
night into Tuesday.


.Fire Weather...
Red flag conditions are not expected over the next several days,
although dispersion values will be high this afternoon and Friday
across a large portion of the area away from the immediate coast.


.Hydrology...
Afternoon sea breeze thunderstorms are expected, however heavy rain
will be localized and should not have any impact on area rivers.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   73  93  73  94  74 /  30  30  10  30  10
Panama City   77  90  76  90  76 /  20  30  10  30  10
Dothan        73  92  73  93  74 /  30  40  20  30  10
Albany        73  93  74  94  74 /  30  40  20  30  10
Valdosta      72  95  72  96  73 /  30  40  20  30  10
Cross City    74  93  72  94  72 /  30  40  10  30  10
Apalachicola  77  90  75  90  75 /  20  30  10  20  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...BARRY
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT
HYDROLOGY...WESTON