Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 230729

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
329 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

The 11 pm surface analysis showed a cold front extending from a 1010
mb frontal wave in northeast AL to southern TX. A few bands of
showers and thunderstorms preceded this front, but were weakening as
they approached western portions of our forecast area. Upper air
data showed a positive-tilt trough from New England through KS, and
at least one short wave trough in the vicinity of the surface cold
front. The HRRR and CAM consensus appeared to be handling current
convective trends well, and indicate that most of the rain will
continue to dissipate overnight, then re-develop during the morning
and afternoon hours as the surface cold front translates eastward
across our forecast area. Much of our area will get at least some
much-needed rain today.

The synoptic environment will be marginal for severe storms today,
with 0-6 km bulk shear winds only around 30 KT and MLCAPE values
approaching 1000 J/kg. Our local CAM Ensemble (ECAM) and the NCAR
CAM ensemble corroborate this ingredients-based assessment, as they
indicate low probabilities of strong updrafts. The main threat will
be a few, marginally-damaging wind gusts from 40 to 60 MPH and/or
quarter-size hail. High temperatures will range from the upper 70s
in southeast AL and the FL Panhandle, to mid to upper 80s from
Tallahassee eastward.

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Tuesday]...

The cold front will continue to push through the FA tonight with
most convection ending from west to east by daybreak Monday. The
exception may be the far northeast Georgia zones where a few
showers may linger due to wrap around moisture. With the passage
of the cold front and the closed upper low translating eastward
across south Georgia on Monday, temperatures will be cooler but
close to seasonal levels for late April. However, as the deep low
pressure system pulls off to the northeast on tuesday, surface
and upper level ridging quickly build back in along with a return
of above seasonal max temperatures. Highs Monday will be in the
mid to upper 70s warming into the lower to mid 80s Tuesday. Lows
will be in the 50s.

.LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...

High pressure surface and aloft will prevail for most of the
upcoming week and next weekend. There will only be a sight chance
for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm by the end of the week
with a better chance late in the weekend. Highs will be in the
80s. Lows will be in the 60s.


.AVIATION [Through 06Z Monday]...

The latest NWP consensus has backed off significantly from its
earlier forecasts of widespread IFR conditions. This seems
plausible, especially at KDHN and KECP, given the increasing CS
from the west and possible PBL perturbations from nearby upstream
convection. We still think that KTLH will have periods of IFR
cigs/MVFR Vis from 09Z-13Z. Narrow bands of SHRA/TSRA will re-
develop around KDHN and KECP mid-late morning, then move east
across KABY and KTLH this afternoon, with gusty winds and brief
periods of MVFR conditions. Winds will increase from the S-SW mid
to late morning to 10-15 KT with higher gusts. Winds will shift to
the W-NW this afternoon as a cold front moves east across the



Southwest winds will shift to the northwest and increase to
cautionary levels late today and tonight continuing at these
levels through Monday as a cold front pushes across the local
waters. Winds will generally be in the 10 to 15 knot range Monday
night through the work week as they swing around to become onshore
by Wednesday.



No concerns.



River levels are currently steady. There will be a good chance for
rain tomorrow as a cold front approaches. Rain totals will likely
be under one inch. Otherwise there is only a slight chance for
rain late next week. No flooding concerns.



Tallahassee   82  56  77  55  85 /  50  30   0   0   0
Panama City   76  58  75  61  80 /  50  10   0   0   0
Dothan        74  53  75  54  85 /  60  10   0   0   0
Albany        79  55  74  54  83 /  60  30  10   0   0
Valdosta      85  58  75  54  84 /  30  40  10   0   0
Cross City    83  61  76  54  83 /  20  30  10   0   0
Apalachicola  78  59  75  59  80 /  40  20   0   0   0






NEAR TERM...Fournier
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