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000
FXUS62 KTAE 231917
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
317 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Our area is situated on the southern end of low level ridging,
rendering easterly flow at the low levels, and directly under a cut
off upper level low, with southerly flow aloft. Increased moisture
and divergence aloft of our eastern zones, combined with a weak east
coast Florida seabreeze, will make for scattered showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon across south central Georgia and the
eastern Florida Big Bend. These storms will quickly dissipate
through the evening hours as they move west. Temperatures will peak
in the mid to upper 80s this afternoon and dip to the upper 60s
to low 70s tonight.

.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

An upper level low along the Gulf coast Sunday will eventually
weaken and slide eastward on Monday. This will keep the CWA under
southerly flow at the mid and upper levels. At the surface, high
pressure remains centered north of the CWA with easterly winds at
the lower levels. This pattern will keep moisture in place across
the CWA, with PW values of 1.6-1.9 Sunday and Monday, and will
allow for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the
short term across much of the CWA. The better chances though are
across the western half, closer to the upper low. Highs will be in
the mid to upper 80s with lows in the upper 60s.

.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

The upper low from the short term will sink southward over the
Florida peninsula mid week with the flow across the region
becoming more northerly and drier air moving in for Tuesday
through Thursday. This will keep the forecast dry for the
beginning of the long term. With a cold front expected to push
into the southeast for the second half of the long term, PoPs
return to the 20-30% range. Highs around 90 will drop to the mid
80s on Saturday.


&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Sunday]...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are most likely in eastern
portions of our area- mainly near VLD, TLH. Reduced vsbys will be
possible during these storms. Otherwise, vsby/cig restrictions
appear unlikely through tonight. In the early morning hours, patchy
fog will be possible again in eastern portions of the area, though
confidence was too low to include in this TAF package.

&&

.MARINE...

Easterly winds around 15 knots will decrease to 5 to 10 knots on
Monday. A cold front will push into the southeast next weekend,
allowing for winds and seas to be elevated again. The best chance
for showers and thunderstorms will be Sunday and Monday with the
higher chances across the western waters.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Rainfall amounts over the next few days will be limited to around
an inch or less. This will not cause any flooding issues across
the area.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   70  87  69  88  69 /  20  20  20  20  10
Panama City   73  84  73  85  72 /  20  40  20  30  10
Dothan        68  87  67  89  68 /   0  20  10  20  10
Albany        69  89  68  89  67 /  10  10  10  10   0
Valdosta      68  86  67  87  66 /  10  10  10  10   0
Cross City    70  89  69  89  69 /  10  20  10  10   0
Apalachicola  73  85  72  86  72 /  30  40  20  20  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Moore
SHORT TERM...Fieux
LONG TERM...Fieux
AVIATION...Moore
MARINE...Fieux
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Fieux