


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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027 FXUS62 KTAE 150545 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 145 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 145 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 The main concern over the next 24 hours is the tropical disturbance east of Melbourne this morning moving westward. The 2 am NHC outlook shows a medium (40%) chance of development as it moves west into the Gulf. For this afternoon, we expect to see an increase in showers and thunderstorms ahead of it in our area with a moist and unstable airmass remaining in place. The greatest coverage of storms is expected to be across our Florida counties as low level convergence with the seabreeze occurs. A few stronger storms will be possible again today with gusty winds, particularly along the Panama City to Apalachicola corridor. In terms of heat this afternoon, we currently expect afternoon convection to hold off long enough to reach 108F heat indices over a similar area as the past couple of days, generally from Valdosta westward and southward. The one exception is across the southeast big bend where it may be just a touch cooler today with heat indices closer to 105F as opposed to 108F. For tonight, conditions will remain quite muggy with overnight lows in the mid 70s for most inland locations and upper 70s to near 80 along the coast. As the tropical disturbance passes just to our south, we may see convection linger near the coast and offshore through the overnight hours. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 145 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Tropical disturbance will have moved into the eastern or northeastern Gulf by Wednesday morning. Models are in good agreement with ridging to the north over the southeast US to keep the disturbance on a general west or west-northwest movement to the north central Gulf coast Thursday. Models disagree on if the disturbance will develop, and if so, should remain on the weaker side. Regardless of development, rain chances will be at its highest (70% north to 90% south) Wednesday and Thursday as PWATs will be in excess of 2 inches and closer to 2.2 inches along the coast. With the higher rain chances and expected cloud cover, highs through late week will be slightly cooler with readings back into the lower 90s which will bring heat indices down below heat advisory criteria. As the disturbance moves by, an uptick in winds over the Gulf waters will occur as well as a high risk of rip currents along all area beaches into the weekend. Speaking of the weekend, mid level ridging builds over the Gulf and southeast US with elevated rain chances into early next week as tropical moisture lingers and highs returning back to the mid to upper 90s. Heat advisories may be returning later this weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 145 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the morning hours. For later this afternoon, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected in the vicinity of TLH and ECP with slightly less coverage north there. && .MARINE... Issued at 145 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Generally light north to northeast winds today will give way to increasing south to southeast winds Wednesday and Thursday as a low pressure area moves off the Florida peninsula this afternoon and emerges into the northeast Gulf Wednesday and moves west towards the north central Gulf coast Thursday. Small craft exercise caution conditions are likely with at least a medium chance for small craft advisories depending on how the low pressure evolves and where it tracks. There is a medium chance, a 40% chance, of tropical development as it moves over the northeastern Gulf. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 145 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 A seasonably moist and unstable air mass will be in place for the next several days with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. Fire weather concerns are expected to be minimal outside of gusty and erratic winds near thunderstorms along with lightning and pockets of heavy rain. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 145 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Rain chances increase markedly today through Thursday as deep tropical moisture arrives and a tropical disturbance emerges into the northeast Gulf. The disturbance is forecast to trek west towards the north central Gulf by Thursday. Even after the disturbance moves west, tropical moisture hangs around with increased rain chances into the weekend. Highest rain chances will be closer to the coast and thus the higher rainfall amounts as well, though any slower or training of storms could produce locally higher amounts. The trend in rainfall amounts have slowly increased and may change depending on any development and overall movement of the disturbance. Nevertheless, there is increasing concern for flash flooding over the next few days. WPC has outlooked much of the area, especially closer to the coast, in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall through late this week. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 96 74 88 76 / 80 40 100 30 Panama City 96 76 89 78 / 70 50 90 60 Dothan 96 74 91 74 / 50 30 80 20 Albany 96 74 92 74 / 50 20 70 10 Valdosta 96 74 91 75 / 60 30 80 20 Cross City 94 72 90 73 / 80 70 90 50 Apalachicola 90 76 87 78 / 80 70 100 80 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning to 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for FLZ007>019-027-108-112-114- 115-118-127-326-426. GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ155>160. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...DVD SHORT TERM...Scholl LONG TERM....Scholl AVIATION...DVD MARINE...Scholl FIRE WEATHER...DVD HYDROLOGY...Scholl