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FXUS62 KTAE 132100
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
400 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

North winds will diminish this evening and overnight as they veer to
the northeast. Although we won`t experience ideal radiational
cooling, clear skies and a very dry air mass will allow for a light
freeze across all but the SE Big Bend and coastal areas. Our current
outline for the freeze watch will be upgraded to a freeze warning.

.Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

High pressure across the area will help to make for another dry
day Sunday before breaking down on Monday ahead of the next
system. A shortwave dives into the Mississippi Valley Sunday
night and pushes across the southeast Monday and Monday night.
This will be the dominate feature through the short term. An
associated surface low will track north of the CWA Monday night.
The main timing of the precipitation will be Monday afternoon
through early Tuesday morning. GFS indicates instability with the
system is minimal with MUCAPE around 50-150 J/kg. While the NAM is
considerably higher, think it`s overdoing the instability so tend
to lean towards the lower values in the GFS and thus have limited
mention of thunder in the grids to scattered. With leaning towards
the lower side with CAPE, overall severe parameters aren`t too
impressive. If a stronger storm could be supported though, it
would most likely be Monday night across the western part of the
CWA.

.Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

Main cold front that brings the rain in the short term clears the
CWA by Tuesday with all of the rain expected to be east of the CWA
by the beginning of the long term. A weak secondary front pushing
into the Southeast Tuesday/Tuesday night but washes out quickly
and the only impact to the CWA expected would be a slight increase
in clouds. High pressure begins building in mid week and dominates
the remainder of the week. With an upper ridge building in late in
the week, high temperatures by Friday will reach into the mid 70s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Sunday]

VFR conditions will prevail with clear skies
through the period. Gusty north winds will diminish this evening
becoming light from the northeast overnight. Winds will increase
slightly on Sunday as they gradually veer to the east.

&&

.Marine...

North to northeast winds with cautionary level speeds will
prevail through Sunday morning. A weak front will move across the
area Monday night that will bring a brief period of advisory
level winds. High pressure will build back in Wednesday and
influence the area through the weekend. Except for brief
cautionary level winds, winds will be on the lighter side after
the Monday night system.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
couple of days as moisture gradually increases, with rain expected
Monday through Monday night.

&&

.Hydrology...

The only chance of rain over the next week is in the Monday to
Monday night time period. Around a half inch to an inch of rain is
forecast with the system and that is not enough to push rivers
back into flood.

Only one river point remains in flood, the Apalachicola River at
Blountstown. This is expected to fall below flood stage early this
week. The latest river stages and forecasts can be found at
water.weather.gov/ahps.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   32  63  45  70  53 /   0   0  10  20  80
Panama City   36  60  49  69  56 /   0   0  10  60  80
Dothan        29  57  43  65  51 /   0   0  10  70  80
Albany        29  57  42  68  50 /   0   0  10  60  80
Valdosta      32  60  44  73  54 /   0   0   0  20  70
Cross City    33  65  46  73  55 /   0   0   0  10  70
Apalachicola  37  59  50  68  56 /   0   0  10  20  80

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Warning from 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ to 8 AM EST /7 AM CST/
     Sunday FOR Calhoun-Central Walton-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland
     Jefferson-Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Leon-Liberty-Madison-North
     Walton-Washington.

GA...Freeze Warning from 4 AM to 8 AM EST Sunday FOR Brooks-Decatur-
     Grady-Lanier-Lowndes-Seminole-Thomas.

     Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Sunday FOR Baker-Ben Hill-
     Berrien-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Dougherty-Early-Irwin-
     Lee-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Terrell-Tift-Turner-
     Worth.

AL...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Sunday FOR
     Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BARRY
SHORT TERM...FIEUX
LONG TERM...FIEUX
AVIATION...BARRY
MARINE...FIEUX
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...FIEUX


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