Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 300138
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
938 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS LARGELY DISSIPATED THIS EVENING...BUT STILL SEEING
SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR MOVING OVER LAND FROM WEST FLOW OVER
THE GULF. HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE NATURE COAST REGION LATER TONIGHT AND THEN FARTHER
SOUTH ALONG THE COAST AS WELL TOWARD THE MORNING HOURS. SIMILAR TO
TODAY...OUR FORECAST AREA WILL SEE THE BEST RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
FIRST PART OF TUESDAY BUT THEN THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT ACTIVITY INLAND. MADE SOME SLIGHT CHANGES TO CURRENT
POPS...BUT OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS LARGELY ON TRACK. LOWS WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SIMILAR
TO TODAY...SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE
STARTING TUESDAY MORNING...AND SOME OF THESE COULD AFFECT THE TAF
STIES. WESTERLY FLOW WILL THEN SHIFT ACTIVITY INLAND FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
A GENERAL WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THEN THE RIDGE AXIS TO OUR SOUTH WILL
SHIFT NORTH SOME LATER IN THE WEEK...WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE WATERS ADJACENT TO SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND
REMAINING SOUTHWEST NEAR THE NATURE COAST. NO HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  91  78  92 /  20  30  10  30
FMY  76  94  76  94 /  10  20  10  50
GIF  75  93  76  94 /  10  30  10  50
SRQ  77  91  77  91 /  10  20  10  30
BKV  72  91  73  92 /  20  40  20  30
SPG  78  92  80  91 /  20  30  10  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...05/CARLISLE



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