Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KTBW 011855
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
255 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - SUNDAY)...
MOST OF THE AREA IS EXPERIENCING RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE EXCEPTION...SO FAR...IS MANATEE AND
SARASOTA COUNTIES EASTWARD THROUGH HARDEE AND DESOTO. THE BAND OF
HEAVIER RAIN HAS PROGRESSED FARTHER SOUTH THAN EARLIER
ANTICIPATED...SO THE FLOOD WATCH WAS EXPANDED SOUTHWARD TO INCLUDE
PASCO...PINELLAS...AND HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES.

LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER. THIS COMBINED WITH IMPRESSIVE 2.5+
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW IS
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. HEAVIEST
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE LINED UP ALONG THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENT
BOUNDARY WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE MEETING THE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW SOUTH OF THE TROUGH.

AS TO THE FUTURE...THE 12Z SUITE OF MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE CORE OF HEAVIER RAINS FARTHER SOUTH NOW. THE
GFS IS FARTHEST NORTH...THE ECMWF FARTHEST SOUTH...WITH THE
CANADIAN IN BETWEEN. BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL DATA...BELIEVE THE
CORE OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL MAY NOW FOCUS BETWEEN
PINELLAS/HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY TO THE SOUTH AND LEVY COUNTY TO THE
NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT...THE RIDGE IS STILL
FORECAST TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST WHICH SHOULD NUDGE THE
BEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NORTHWARD...BRINGING SOME RELIEF TO AT
LEAST THE TAMPA BAY AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND. BEFORE THAT
HAPPENS...WE COULD EASILY SEE AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 6 INCHES OF
RAINFALL IN AREAS.

FOR THOSE THAT VENTURE TO AREA BEACHES THIS WEEKEND...PLEASE BE
AWARE THAT IN ADDITION TO THE DEADLY LIGHTNING THREAT WITH BANDS
OF STORMS MOVING ONSHORE...THE THREAT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY)...
NEXT WEEK BEGINS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE AREA
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH ABOUT MID-WEEK...ALLOWING THE FRONTAL
TROUGH/BOUNDARY ACROSS AND JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TO WASH OUT.
DEEP BUT DIFFUSE RIDGING OVER THE ATLANTIC BUILDS IN ACROSS FL TO
THE GULF. FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...ALONG WITH ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY...SAGS BACK IN ACROSS
THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST U.S. AS THE RIDGING ACROSS THE STATE
SHIFTS SOUTH.

THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO DRY OUT HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST
FLOW PATTERN OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO A MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY PATTERN...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL ONLY HOLD FOR A COUPLE OF
DAYS OR SO BEFORE RETURNING TO SOUTHWEST AND WEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES
RUN JUST ON THE WARM SIDE OF NORMAL FOR THE LOWS WHILE THE HIGHS
WILL BE AROUND OR JUST BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD RAINS WITH EMBEDDED HEAVY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BRING
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO PIE...TPA...LAL...
AND POSSIBLY SRQ THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING AND LOCATIONS IS ON THE POOR SIDE BEYOND THE FIRST FEW
HOURS OF THE TAF.

&&

.MARINE...
GOING TO ISSUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF
TARPON SPRINGS WITH THIS PACKAGE WHICH WILL BE VALID THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE NEAR 20 KNOTS AND SEAS MAY APPROACH
7 FEET WELL OFFSHORE. SURFACE RIDGING WILL FINALLY BUILD BACK OVER
THE WATERS AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SEAS
TO SUBSIDE AND SHUT DOWN THE CONTINUOUS FEED OF MOISTURE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. VERY WET CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SOME DRYING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BY MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  87  78  88 /  40  50  30  60
FMY  77  90  77  91 /  20  30  10  50
GIF  75  88  75  89 /  30  40  10  60
SRQ  78  88  77  89 /  40  40  20  50
BKV  75  86  73  87 /  50  60  40  60
SPG  78  87  78  88 /  40  50  30  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL CITRUS-
     COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEVY-
     COASTAL PASCO-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND
     HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEVY-INLAND PASCO-PINELLAS.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT
     20 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL
     OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...JILLSON
MID/LONG TERM...OGLESBY/RUDE
DECISION SUPPORT...OGLESBY/MROCZKA


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.