Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 240105
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
805 PM EST Thu Feb 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Early evening water vapor satellite imagery is showing the
broad cyclonic circulation from the upper level low pressure
just north of the Bahamas, with rather dry air aloft over
the Florida Peninsula wrapping around on the west side.
Although the wind direction along the coast remains largely
northerly, buoys just offshore are still showing a west
direction to the swell, and the high risk of rip currents
will continue into tonight before the winds and waves
subside enough to minimize the threat.

With ample moisture remaining near the surface and northeast
to north low level flow, fog remains a concern overnight,
although winds may still be a bit too breezy to allow
significant fog development. That said, enough ingredients
are in place to allow for at least patchy dense fog to
form once again overnight tonight.

Overall, the forecast looks on track, with no significant
updates needed for the evening update.

&&

.AVIATION...
A few patches of MVFR ceilings remain across the area, but
otherwise VFR conditions are prevailing this evening.
Lingering low level moisture will allow for MVFR, or perhaps
some IFR ceilings to redevelop around 08z, along with some
patchy fog. The best chances for fog will be around KLAL and
KPGD. Conditions will improve by mid morning on Friday,
with generally VFR expected for the rest of Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Breezy winds over the Gulf waters are continuing to produce
waves offshore of around 4-6 feet this evening. Winds and
seas will continue to subside through Friday morning, but
Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines will be kept in
place overnight for the offshore zones between Bonita Beach
and Tarpon Springs. High pressure will build in from the
northwest Friday with benign conditions expected into
Saturday. Winds will pick back up to around 15 knots
Saturday night as a dry cold front moves into the area.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  64  80  64  77 /   0   0   0  10
FMY  62  82  63  81 /  10   0   0   0
GIF  62  83  62  82 /  10   0   0  10
SRQ  63  78  62  76 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  60  83  57  79 /   0   0   0  10
SPG  65  79  65  75 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM EST Friday for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal
     Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

     Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Sarasota.

Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...18/Fleming
UPPER AIR...14/Mroczka
DECISION SUPPORT...14/Mroczka



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