Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 010149 AAA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
849 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
AS EVIDENT ON THE EVENING RAOB. A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION REMAINS
PRESENT AROUND 850 MB HOWEVER. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO
10 DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY AS WINDS HAVE TAKEN
A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
TRENDS BUT OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE THE FORECAST THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SCT HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE
REGION. FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT WILL MAINTAIN
A TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS OVER THE OUTER WATERS AND BRIEF EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS
OVER SOME OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS EARLY IN THE EVENING. THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS SUNDAY BUT THEN TIGHTENS AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TRACKS ALONG THE GULF COAST
DURING MID WEEK...WITH GENERALLY BENIGN WINDS AND SEAS FOR THE WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  54  74  62  70 /   0   0  10  50
FMY  54  77  62  77 /   0   0  10  40
GIF  52  75  60  75 /   0   0  10  50
SRQ  53  75  63  72 /   0   0  10  50
BKV  47  75  60  69 /   0   0  20  60
SPG  58  72  63  70 /   0   0  10  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR BONITA
     BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO
     TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...11/MCKAUGHAN
MARINE...09/RUDE
DECISION SUPPORT...88/GITTINGER





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