Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 220746
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
346 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...BETTER CHANCES FOR COASTAL THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY-SATURDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA
TODAY...WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE 00Z
TBW SOUNDING HAS A PRECIPITABLE WATER /PWAT/ VALUE OF 1.42
INCHES...SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ACCORDING TO
THE SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY FOR TBW. ADD IN THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT
OF A WEST COAST SEA BREEZE AND PLENTY OF INGREDIENTS WILL BE
PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO CREATE GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...LIGHTNING...AND
EVEN HAIL. 500 MB TEMPERATURES OF -10 DEG C IN THE 00Z TBW
SOUNDING WILL NOT BE TOO DIFFERENT FROM WHAT IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. STORMS OVER THE EAST COAST HAVE BEEN ABLE TO PRODUCE
HAIL AND STRONG WINDS THE LAST FEW DAYS...SIMILAR CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO EXIST TODAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON SATURDAY.

THERE WILL BE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...MAINLY ALOFT AS A 500 MB TROUGH EXITS INTO THE ATLANTIC
AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK AT THAT LEVEL ACROSS THE
GULF AND PENINSULA OF FLORIDA. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY MAY ALSO BE ABLE TO DRIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH
INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA BY SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE...WITH SATURDAY SEEING
THE POTENTIAL FOR MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE
AREA BEFORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. PREFERRED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE
FOR TEMPERATURES WITH SOME WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE WARMER 00Z NAM MET
MOS GUIDANCE. FOR POPS...WENT HIGHER THAN MOS GUIDANCE WITH WEIGHT
GIVEN TO HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY/...
STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AND SHIFTING FURTHER EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC DURING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND
FLOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WITH ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (PW`S IN THE 1.5 TO 1.7 INCH RANGE)
IN PLACE ON SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON MEMORIAL DAY SCATTERED DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WITH AN EAST
SOUTHEAST STEERING FLOW FOCUSING HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY INCREASED SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE
AND DRIER MID LEVEL AIR MOVING IN FROM THE EAST WILL RESULT IN LOWER
RAIN CHANCES WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORM (POPS 20 PERCENT)
COVERAGE EXPECTED EACH DAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SOME 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS CLIMBING TO AROUND 90 ALONG THE COAST...AND LOWER TO MID 90S
INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH CONVECTION AT LAL AND
SWFL SITES COULD BRING BRIEF MVFR/IFR WITH HEAVY
RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS. A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY WITH
EASTERLY FLOW ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND HIGHER SEAS AROUND SEA
BREEZE THUNDERSTORMS ARE THE MAIN HAZARDS FOR MARINERS ALONG THE
COAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. POTENTIAL FOR CAUTIONARY OR
ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXISTS IN THE COMING DAYS WITH OVERNIGHT
EASTERLY SURGES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD STAY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. OVERNIGHT
FOG RISK IS LOW AND ANY THAT OCCURS SHOULD BE IN FOG-PRONE LOW-
LYING AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  92  75  93  74 /  30  20  50  60
FMY  94  74  93  73 /  50  50  60  60
GIF  95  73  92  72 /  40  30  40  30
SRQ  90  73  92  73 /  30  20  50  60
BKV  92  70  92  69 /  20  10  30  30
SPG  91  76  92  76 /  20  20  50  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...02/GARCIA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...57/MCMICHAEL



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