Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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899
FXUS62 KTBW 200104
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
804 PM EST Thu Jan 19 2017

...Strong to Severe Storms Possible On Sunday...
...Very Hazardous Marine Conditions Developing On Sunday...
...Coastal Flooding Possible Sunday And Sunday Night...

.SHORT TERM (Tonight)...
Ridging aloft the eastern Gulf of Mexico and the southeast
U.S. will continue as a weak short wave trough crosses the
northern end of Fl later tonight. Surface high pressure
centered over the Bahamas will reach across the state and
out over the Gulf.

The short wave trough along will some deeper moisture will support
slight chance to a chance of showers for the far northern counties
and the northern marine zones. The surface high pressure extending
across FL will keep winds light to calm which along with low level
moisture will support patchy to locally dense fog across land
areas later tonight. The fog will begin to lift shortly after
sunrise Fri. Forecast are on track for tonight with no updates
planned.

&&

.AVIATION...
20/00Z-21/00Z. VFR will prevail through early tonight then give way
to MVFR/LCL IFR AFT 06Z as fog forms. The most extensive fog
is expected at LAL and PGD. The fog will lift in a 14-15Z
window followed by VFR under SCT-BKN clouds. Light and
mostly southerly winds become S-SW and increase slightly
Fri afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will provide tranquil boating conditions on the waters
through Friday night...although there may be some sea fog late Fri
night into early Sat morning. HOWEVER...winds will begin to increase
Sat as a storm system moves out of the southern Plains and through
the Deep South during the weekend...sweeping a strong cold front
over the Gulf and through the state. Significantly deteriorating
weather will begin to impact the area...mariners should stay
up to date with the latest forecasts.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  64  76  66  79 /  10  10  10  10
FMY  61  77  64  82 /   0  10  10  10
GIF  61  80  63  83 /   0  10  10  10
SRQ  63  74  64  78 /  10  10  10  10
BKV  60  77  61  81 /  10  10  10  10
SPG  64  73  66  78 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for Coastal
     Manatee-Coastal Sarasota.

Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...09/Rude
UPPER AIR...27/Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...84/Austin



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