Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 230735
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
335 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS S FL TODAY PERHAPS JUST S OF I-75. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO FOCUS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AS IT MEANDERS ACROSS S FL
THROUGH FRIDAY. EXACT POSITION OF THE FRONT AND ASSOC MOISTURE POOL WILL
BE KEY AS A VIGOROUS S/WV MOVES ACROSS THE REGION OF FRIDAY
PROVIDING LARGE SCALE LIFT. MOST OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN TOO DRY FOR
CONVECTION...HOWEVER FAR SRN ZONES MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE FRONT
AND DEEPER MOISTURE TO SEE SOME PRECIP. GFS...CANADIAN...NAM AND
ECMWF ALL SHOW FRONTAL WAVES MOVING NE ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT MODELS ARE NOT IN ANY AGREEMENT WRT TIMING
AND LOCATION OF THESE WAVES. BECAUSE OF THIS...EACH MODEL HAS THE
FRONT AND DEEPER MOISTURE IN SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT LOCATION DEPENDING
ON WHERE THE WAVES ARE LOCATED IN THE MODEL RUN. NAM IS AGAIN MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE AS IT SHOWS A WAVE ACROSS THE SE GULF ON
FRI WHILE GFS IS MUCH DRIER AS S FL SHOWN TO BE ON BACKSIDE OF ONE
OF THESE WAVES WHICH STRENGTHENS INTO A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE BAHAMAS.
THIS CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN POPS BETWEEN THE TWO
MOS PRODUCTS WITH GFS SHOWING VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIP WHILE NAM
IS IN LIKELY RANGE IN FMY AREA. WILL COMPROMISE A BIT BETWEEN THESE
SOLNS BUT LEAN MORE ON DRY SIDE GIVEN STRONGER MODEL CONSENSUS POINT
THAT DIRECTION (20-30% FAR SRN 5 COS). INTERESTINGLY...THESE
LOWS/FRONTAL WAVES ARE DEPICTED IN MORE IMPRESSIVE FASHION THAN TD9
WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE NO DIRECT IMPACT ON THE FORECAST AS IT SLIDES
MORE ESE INTO THE CARRIBEAN. EXPECT STRONG N/S TEMP GRADIENT TONIGHT
AS NRN AREAS DROP INTO THE UPR 40S WITH HELP OF COOLER AND MUCH
DRIER AIR IN PLACE BUT SRN COS REMAIN IN THE 60S CLOSER TO THE
STALLED BOUNDARY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR CLIMO WITH 80S
MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...MARGINAL SCA IS LIKELY OCCURRING ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO OBS IN RIGHT LOCATION TO CONFIRM.
EXPECT WINDS TO DROP BELOW SCA LATER THIS MORNING THEN INCREASE NEAR
SCA LEVELS AGAIN OFFSHORE AGAIN TONIGHT AS A NOCTURNAL SURGE
DEVELOPS ACROSS SRN HALF OF THE MARINE AREA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRIER AIRMASS ON TAP NEXT FEW DAYS...ESP IN NRN
COS. RH VALUES NEAR RF THRESHOLDS...BUT NEITHER WINDS NOR ERC
VALUES SUPPORT RED FLAG ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM(FRIDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...
PROGRESSIVE U/L PATTERN DEVELOPING WITH A S/W DISTURBANCE MOVING OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH A STRONG U/L
RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  THE U/L RIDGE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA SUNDAY WITH DRY STABLE AIR
OVER THE REGION...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT NIGHT AND PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THE CENTER OF THE U/L RIDGE WILL SLIDE
EAST OF FLORIDA ON MONDAY WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AS A BROAD U/L
TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY WILL
CREATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH MID WEEK.  ON
WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT AHEAD OF THE U/L
TROUGH IN THE PLAINS WHICH WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION.  TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMATIC NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  83  62  83  62 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  85  67  86  63 /  20  10  30  10
GIF  81  61  82  60 /   0   0  10   0
SRQ  86  62  83  63 /   0   0  10   0
BKV  82  51  82  51 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  83  68  82  68 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO
     TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE
     RIVER OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...GITTINGER
LONG TERM...OGLESBY





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