Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 280247
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
947 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT AND IS LOCATED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. TONIGHT WILL CERTAINLY
BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE AS COLDER AIR SPILLS INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS STILL A WAYS AWAY FROM
THE REGION...MORE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY...AND SO
THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RATHER TIGHT AND WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND
5 TO 10 MPH OR HIGHER OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS IN MIND AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT...WILL LEAVE THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY
IN PLACE FOR PASCO COUNTY SOUTHWARD BUT NOT INCLUDING COASTAL
AREAS OR SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK MARGINAL FOR
ANY FREEZE WARNINGS SO HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST AS IS WITH NONE IN
PLACE. THE ONLY OTHER THING TO MENTION IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
PATCHY FROST FOR NORTHERN AREAS. FROST IS A BIT BORDERLINE GIVEN
THE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS...BUT SOME OF THE MORE SHELTERED AREAS
WILL LIKELY SEE FROST SO HAVE LEFT THAT IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.
OTHERWISE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS AS DISCUSSED IN THE MARINE SECTION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTH WINDS HAVE INCREASED AS THE SECONDARY FRONT EXITS TO
THE SOUTH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...THEN WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME NORTHEAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
FOR THE WEEKEND...WINDS WILL BECOME EAST AND LIGHTEN A BIT EACH
DAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  42  61  46  71 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  44  67  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  40  62  45  71 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  43  63  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  34  60  37  71 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  48  60  51  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL PASCO-DESOTO-HARDEE-
     HIGHLANDS-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND
     PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-POLK.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR BONITA
     BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO
     TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR CHARLOTTE
     HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-TAMPA BAY WATERS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR BONITA
     BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON
     SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER
     OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...05/CARLISLE
MARINE...007/DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT...72/NOAH





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