Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 030929
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
329 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...RAINFALL AHEAD OF THE NEXT WINTER
WEATHER SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER THE AREA AND WILL
CONTINUE TO INCH EASTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A MAJORITY OF THE AREA RECEIVING RAINFALL
TOTALS BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. SOME SNOWFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO IMPACT ANY MAJOR TRANSPORTATION
PASSES. SUK

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROF
WILL BE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BROADEN DURING THE
NIGHT AS A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL RESULT FROM THE FIRST SHORTWAVE. IT WILL BE OVER
THE ROCKIES AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL MONTANA SUNDAY. THE SECOND
SHORTWAVE WALL BE MOVING OVER THE WEST COAST AND KEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN US. A BREAK OR LESSENING OF PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AS THE CWA LIES BETWEEN THE TWO SHORTWAVES. THIS
WILL BE A SHORT PERIOD AS THE SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE
ROCKIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL THEY
BEGIN TO DIVERGE MONDAY MORNING. BY TUESDAY, THE GFS HAS DEVELOPED A
SHORTWAVE OVER THE ZONES WHILE THE ECMWF IS NEARLY ZONAL.
CONSEQUENTLY, THE GFS PRODUCES PRECIP WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS DRY.
THE GEM DEVELOPS A WEAK SHORTWAVE BUT REMAINS DRY...SO WILL LEAN TO
THE DRYER SOLUTIONS. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED TUESDAY BUT
HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BE RISING AND THE AIR MASS WARMING AND DRYING. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE ZONES WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIP WILL BE ALONG THE HILINE ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED.
ZELZER&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0555Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD
...BUT SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO MVFR CONDITIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE
WITH CEILINGS SLOWLY LOWERING AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. SOME
LIGHT RAIN WILL FALL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE RAIN WITH LOWERING
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD. SUK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  65  48  62  48 /  50  90  50  70
CTB  58  43  55  42 / 100  60  80 100
HLN  68  44  67  46 /  40  80  60  80
BZN  77  44  73  45 /  20  30  20  50
WEY  73  36  70  36 /  10  20  20  20
DLN  74  43  69  43 /  30  40  40  60
HVR  71  49  67  50 /  10  60  50  70
LWT  71  45  67  47 /  10  30  30  50

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS


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