Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 050523
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1123 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.UPDATE...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA BUT GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S. ANOTHER WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK SO NO FURTHER CHANGES WERE MADE. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0523Z.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA
WITH AN UNSETTLED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING OVER MONTANA
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY FROM 06Z THROUGH ABOUT 15Z BEFORE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
MOVES OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS BY 18Z WITH ACTIVITY MOVING EAST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
CENTRAL MONTANA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT THERE WILL BE LOCAL
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN CORES AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES. MPJ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 530 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DECENT MOISTURE ALOFT CONTINUES WILL
CONTINUE TO ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THE MAJORITY
OF STORMS SHOULD DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AROUND SUNSET.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A LITTLE MORE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS AND AN ADDITIONAL SHOT OF MOISTURE COMING FROM THE
PACIFIC. BY THURSDAY THE MOISTURE SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF THE
REGION AND THAT WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE TIME
FRAME WITH THE MOISTURE ALOFT KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW THE 90
DEGREE MARK AT MOST LOCATIONS TODAY AND COOLER STILL
WEDNESDAY.THURSDAY IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES DUE TO THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE  WEAK COLD
FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE MOISTURE ON
WEDNESDAY. SUK

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE ONCE
AGAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS MODERATE. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE REGION AS THE PERIOD BEGINS
ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL EJECT SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY SATURDAY EVENING FUELING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA THAT WILL MOVE INTO
CENTRAL MONTANA OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE EVOLVED SOMEWHAT
FROM WHAT WAS SEEN YESTERDAY AND MODELS NOW KEEP THIS UPPER TROUGH
IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS A
RESULT, MONTANA WILL REMAIN BENEATH A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AT
TIMES, MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN AT
OR NEAR SEASONABLE AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  58  80  53  73 /  10  40  40  10
CTB  53  81  50  69 /  10  20  20  20
HLN  55  78  52  76 /  20  50  30  10
BZN  53  78  50  79 /  20  50  50  20
WEY  43  71  38  71 /  20  50  60  20
DLN  52  73  47  76 /  20  60  40  10
HVR  57  85  56  77 /  20  20  40  20
LWT  56  81  52  76 /  20  50  40  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



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