Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 252122
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
222 PM MST FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A CONTINUED THREAT THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
THE BEST COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW SLOW MOVING TO QUASI-
STATIONARY STORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS IS DUE TO THE RELATIVELY WEAK
FLOW ALOFT AS SEEN IN THE 18Z SOUNDING. THE SOUNDING DOES SHOW A
VERY WEAK CAP IN PLACE BUT DON`T THINK IT WILL STOP DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE CITY AS OUTFLOWS ARE ALREADY PUSHING OUT FROM THE INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT. AGAIN THIS DEVELOP HASN`T MOVED MUCH SO THERE WILL BE
A THREAT OF FLASH FLOOD OR AT LEAST SOME PONDING OF WATER NEAR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. AS OF 20Z HAVE BEGUN TO SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE OUTFLOWS WHICH IS A SIGN OF THINGS TO COME. THE DOMINATE SIDE
OF THE OUTFLOWS TODAY WILL BE THE WESTERN SIDE...WHICH WILL
ENHANCE THE BLOWING DUST THREAT FOR MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF THE KITT
PEAK TO TUCSON TO FLORENCE LINE. A BLOWING DUST ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THAT REASON. HIRES GUIDANCE CONTINUES HINTING THAT ONCE THINGS
PUSHING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL PROPAGATE
ALONG THE WESTERN OUTFLOW AS AFOREMENTIONED...LEAVING MAINLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION BEHIND. THEN CLEARING OUT
AOA 00Z FROM TUCSON EAST WITH MOST OF THE AREA CLEARED BY SUNSET.

THE REST OF THE WEEKEND THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE
HAVE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT. TOMORROW IN FACT WILL HAVE A LITTLE
HELP FROM A WEAK IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
HIGH. THEN SUNDAY IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MAINLY DUE TO OUTFLOW
FROM PREVIOUS DAY THAT WILL HELP INITIATE CONVECTION. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR SEASONABLE AVERAGES. OTHERWISE...ONLY
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 27/00Z.
SCTD -TSRA/-SHRA WILL BE MOVG W-NW ACROSS SE AZ FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS NEAR +TSRA. AREAS OF BLDU
WITH VSBYS BLW 1/2SM MAY OCCUR NW OF KTUS INTO PINAL COUNTY THRU
26/03Z. AFTER 26/04Z...ISOLD -SHRA/TS WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS ACROSS MOST
OF SE AZ WITH DECKS 8-14KFT AGL. THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP LATE
SATURDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING.
EXPECT SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS WEEKEND. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS THEN
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ501-502-
504-505.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEADOWS
FIRE WX/AVIATION...GLUECK

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON





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