Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
FXUS65 KTWC 010320
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
820 PM MST FRI SEP 30 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A few thunderstorms will occur Saturday afternoon across
the White Mountains. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms late
Sunday into Monday from Tucson east to the New Mexico border. Cooler
temperatures will also occur early next week followed by dry
conditions with a warming trend Tuesday into next Friday.
.DISCUSSION...Showers and thunderstorms have dissipated across much
of southeast Arizona at this time. The exception was across the
White Mountains where a few thunderstorms were ongoing. These
thunderstorms are expected to end by midnight allowing for precip-
free conditions area-wide late tonight into Saturday morning.
Otherwise, satellite trends as well as the 01/00Z NAM12 suggest that
the mostly mid-level clouds across portions of the area may be
slower to dissipate than previously expected. Have made some
adjustments to the gridded data sky values to depict mostly clear
skies to partly cloudy skies the rest of tonight.
The 01/00Z NAM12 also suggests that a few showers/tstms may occur
Saturday afternoon near the International border adjacent Santa
Cruz/southwest Cochise Counties. The inherited forecast only depicts
a slight chance of showers/tstms Saturday afternoon across the White
Mountains. Will defer to the midnight shift for any adjustments to
PoPs for Saturday afternoon.
Please refer to the additional sections for further detail.
.AVIATION...Valid through 02/06Z.
Isolated -TSRA/-SHRA across the White Mountains NE of KSAD the rest
of tonight and Saturday afternoon. A few -TSRA/-SHRA may also occur
Saturday afternoon near the International border S-SE of KTUS.
Otherwise, a FEW-BKN clouds mainly 8k-12k ft AGL and surface wind
variable in direction less than 12 kts into Saturday evening.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
.FIRE WEATHER...A few thunderstorms across the White Mountains and
south-to-southeast of Tucson Saturday afternoon. There is a slight
chance of thunderstorms from Tucson east to the New Mexico border
late Sunday into Monday. Dry conditions will then prevail Tuesday
through next Friday. 20-foot winds mainly less than 15 mph through
Sunday, then winds to increase Monday and Tuesday.
.PREV DISCUSSION /253 PM MST/...Over the weekend the high center to
our southeast will reconsolidate well south of our area as a strong
trough digs into the region from the eastern Pacific. Limited
moisture and a more stable atmosphere will limit convection over the
weekend with temperatures a few degrees above average.
The strong low associated with the trough will push through the
central Great Basin Monday, with a slower trailing frontal boundary
dragging through Arizona late Monday into early Tuesday (reaching
our corner of the state last sometime during the day Tuesday). A few
showers associated with this but nothing significant this far south.
Our main impacts will be the breezy conditions Monday into Tuesday
morning, as well as about 10 to 15 degrees of cooling that will drop
daytime highs to around 6-8 degrees below average Tuesday.
Much cooler nights for the middle of next week, then the Mexican
ridge noses in for a strong warming trend the second half of next
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