Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 042223
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
320 PM MST FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY. A GRADUALLY REDUCTION IN
AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK. BELOW NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A PLEASANT AFTERNOON ACROSS SE AZ WITH 04/21Z TEMPS
SITUATED IN THE 70S AND 80S IN MOST SPOTS...WITH DEWPOINTS HOLDING
STEADY IN THE 50S AND 60S. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS CONTINUED TO ADVECT NEWD ACROSS THE AREA
FROM TROPICAL STORM KEVIN...WHICH WAS LOCATED NEAR 22N/115W AS OF
THE 2PM PDT NHC ADVISORY. KEMX WAS DETECTING A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA...ALONG
WITH SOME STRONGER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN
ZONES WHERE SOLAR INSOLATION WAS THE BEST TODAY. PRECIP IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NE AT AROUND 12 KTS.

SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLATED TSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...BUT IS EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN AROUND 05/03Z. A
FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE THIRD OF AN INCH...HOWEVER LOCALLY
HEAVIER ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH MAY OCCUR
WITH STRONGER STORMS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
FIRE UP AGAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO HANG
AROUND.

THEREAFTER...THE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE PAC NW WILL SWING
EWD THRU THE NRN ROCKIES. SWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY...AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH A BREAK BETWEEN TROPICAL
SYSTEMS...WILL USHER IN SOME DRIER AIR. THIS SLIGHT DOWNTURN IN
ACTIVITY WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT TROPICAL SYSTEM BEGINS TO
PUSH MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO SE AZ EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY MIDWEEK...THE
UPPER LEVEL JET IS FAIRLY ZONAL FOR A SHORT TIME AND LOCATED NEAR
THE CANADIAN BORDER...ALLOWING FOR WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE DESERT
SW. THE TIMING AND LOCATION FOR THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THIS NEXT TROPICAL SYSTEM. THAT
SAID...ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO INHERITED POPS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

LATE NEXT WEEK...BOTH THE 04/12Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATED NWLY FLOW
RETURNING TO THE AREA...WITH RIDGING IN THE WEST AND A TROF DIGGING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SHOULD HELP TO DRY THINGS OUT
WITH THE CAVEAT BEING ANY LINGERING TROPICAL MOISTURE. FOR
NOW...HAVE MAINTAINED JUST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIP FOR SRN/ERN
ZONES.

TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...FOLLOWED BY A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO NEAR-NORMAL LEVELS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 06/00Z.
DEEP MOISTURE STREAMING OVER THE AREA WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW THAT ANY THAT FORM WOULD
IMPACT THE TERMINALS TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE
THROUGHOUT WITH WINDS FAVORING A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THE STRONGEST STORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY COULD CAUSE
BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...THOUGH THESE CONDITIONS ARE MORE LIKELY
AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS AND AROUND HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOIST CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS OVER EASTERN AREAS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND
GOOD RH RECOVERY AREA WIDE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER WESTERN ZONES WITH ONLY SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.
WINDS WILL FAVOR A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...BUT WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO
SEE STRONG TERRAIN INFLUENCES. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...FRENCH
AVIATION/FIRE WX...CANTIN


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