Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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785
FXUS65 KTWC 242130
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
230 PM MST Sat Feb 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...A cool and dry weekend with a brief warming trend early
in the new week. A stronger winter storm system will pass through
the region later Tuesday into Wednesday bringing a good chance of
valley rain and mountain snow. Dry and warmer to end the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Clear skies prevailed across southeast Arizona this
afternoon in the wake of a system that passed through last night.
The tail end of another system will clip northeast Arizona tonight
with some increase in cloudiness anticipated in the White Mountains.
Otherwise, it will be a dry system this far south. The area will be
in between systems Sunday afternoon and Monday. Thereafter, models
were in agreement with tracking a stronger system into southern
California Tuesday morning and through Arizona Tuesday afternoon
into Wednesday. Initially, strong and gusty winds will develop in
advance of this system as early as Monday afternoon and more so
Tuesday. Considerable cloudiness and scattered showers will
accompany this storm as it passes through the region. High
temperatures will peak near normal on Monday followed by another
cool down as early as Tuesday but most areas on Wednesday. A return
to a dry weather pattern can be expected Thursday into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid thru 25/12Z.
SKC conditions. SFC wind NWLY 8-12 kts. Less wind will occur this
evening into Sunday morning. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions will prevail through Monday night.
The next storm system will bring scattered valley rain and mountain
snow showers Tuesday into Wednesday. Dry conditions will return next
Thursday and Friday. Expect gusty west to southwest 20-ft winds
Monday and Tuesday afternoons. Elevated northwest winds will occur
on Wednesday. Otherwise, winds will generally be terrain driven at
less than 15 mph through next Friday.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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