Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 262135

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
235 PM MST Sun Feb 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A weak disturbance will bring gusty winds today along
with a chance of showers northeast of Tucson. A stronger weather
system will then bring more winds along with a good chance of
valley rain and mountain snow showers Monday night into Tuesday.
Below average daytime temperatures will continue into Tuesday,
then dry conditions with a strong warming trend Wednesday into
next weekend.


.DISCUSSION...A weak shortwave is creating variable cloudiness
along with a few sprinkles in valleys and snow showers in the
mountains northeast of Tucson. Might see a quick inch or so in
northern Graham and Greenlee counties above 6000 feet. Gusty winds
this afternoon but generally below advisory levels. Some blowing
dust issues in northeastern Cochise county along I-10 due to the
wind and land use issues today. A blowing dust advisory is in
effect until 4:30 PM MST.

We`re still on track for a stronger and wetter system late Monday
into Tuesday. The low off the Pacific coast is gaining some higher
latitude support from the storm over the Pacific Northwest as they
phase together. A cool, wet and efficient system will result as it
develops over the next 48 hours. Best chance of valley rain and
mountain snow for our corner of the state will be Monday evening
through mid day Tuesday. Total valley rainfall amounts between .1
and .5 inches with precip equivalent in the mountains around .4 to
1.2 inches. Trajectories put lower values across far southern
areas with higher amounts on higher terrain slopes with southern
exposure from Tucson northward. 6 to 10 inches of snow above 6500
feet with isolated higher amounts above 8000 feet. 12 inches not
out of the question for highest elevations around Mt Graham as
well as southern portions of the White Mtns of northern Graham and
Greenlee counties.

Strong gusty winds with low end advisory levels possible ahead of
the front on Tuesday. Tricky overnight low forecast Tuesday
morning with winds and cloud cover making for a much narrower and
atypical diurnal trend.

A broad based low amplitude ridge takes control the second half of
next week into next weekend. Below average temperatures Tuesday
will jump to around 10 degrees above average by the weekend. A
pattern change will likely keep us dry beyond this period as well.


.AVIATION...Valid through 27/23Z.
Isolated valley -SHRA and mountain -SHSN northeast of KTUS thru
27/02Z. Otherwise, SCT-BKN cloud decks at 8k-12k ft AGL clearing
from west to east this evening, with FEW-SCT clouds around 10k-15k
ft AGL by 27/06Z and persisting thru 27/23Z. Surface wind wly/nwly
at 10-22 kts with gusts up to 30 kts thru 27/02Z. The strongest
speeds will be in the vicinity of KDUG and KALK. Surface wind
diminishing this evening to below 12 kts, but increasing again
after 27/18Z. Expect sly/swly surface wind of 14-22 kts and gusts
up to 28 kts by 27/21Z, with the strongest speeds will be in the
vicinity of KDUG and KALK. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF


.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated valley sprinkles and mountain snow showers
will continue northeast of Tucson through the early evening hours
tonight. Dry conditions will then occur late this evening into early
Monday afternoon. A Pacific weather system will then bring a slight
chance of showers Monday afternoon, followed by a good chance of
valley rain and mountain snow showers Monday night into Tuesday.
Dry conditions will return Tuesday night and continue into next
Saturday. Gusty winds can be expected Monday afternoon and Monday
night, with even stronger winds on Tuesday, before less wind occurs
Wednesday. Expect occasionally gusty east winds Thursday and Friday.


Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Monday to 5 PM MST Tuesday for




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