Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 212132
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
232 PM MST Tue Nov 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Daytime temperatures will gradually increase to
record levels by Thanksgiving and into the upcoming weekend. Dry
conditions will continue into at least early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A dry northerly flow over our area with strong high
pressure off the Baja coast and a trough downstream. Just some
cirrus level moisture with a very dry boundary layer. Surface dew
points mixing down into the teens and 20s this afternoon.

Surface high pressure building from southern Canada down the
Front Range and central to southern Plains over the next 24 hours,
with a back-door surface cold front washing out as it tries to
push our way from New Mexico. We`ll get some gusty east winds
at times Wednesday, mainly in the morning hours.

The ridge centered just off the Baja Peninsula will reorient it`s
axis in a northeasterly direction and into our area over the next
48 hours as a strong system off the Pacific Northwest coast tries
to push inland. As a result, expect afternoon high temperatures
to soar past record levels to almost 20 degrees above average by
Thursday and Friday through the holiday weekend.

A trough pushing through the region north of our area will knock
temperatures back to only 5 to 8 degrees above average early next
week.

No rain (or snow) in sight, as we head toward the end of a very
warm and dry November.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid thru 23/00Z.
SCT-BKN clouds above 20k ft AGL into Wednesday morning with clearing
during the afternoon hours. SFC wind NWLY but less than 10 kts this
afternoon becoming terrain driven overnight. Expect ELY/SELY winds
to develop Wednesday morning at 10-15 kts. Speeds will diminish late
Wednesday afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions are expected through at least the
next 7 days. Well above normal temperatures return to the region
Wednesday, continuing through the upcoming weekend. 20-foot winds
will be gusty from the southeast to east on Wednesday. Winds will be
terrain driven and mainly less than 15 mph at other times.

&&

.CLIMATE...Several web pages are headlined on our website that
pertain to the record temperatures that will be occurring during
the Thanksgiving 4 day holiday weekend.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

Meyer/Carpenter

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