Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 272054

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
154 PM MST Thu Jul 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect daily rounds of afternoon and evening
thunderstorms across southeast Arizona into early next week. Rain
will be heavy in some locations. As storm coverage increases,
high temperatures will cool slightly to below normal readings from
Friday through the weekend.


.DISCUSSION...Radar starting to light up over SE AZ, a little
behind schedule timewise when comparing to some of the mesoscale
models. This is all in response to a 55 kt 250 mb jet max moving
across the international border area and an upper level feature
moving west out of New Mexico. While storms will move at a decent
pace for the monsoon, coverage of storms and rain rates will be
sufficient for some areas of heavy rain. Additionally, as storms
move into the lower deserts, DCAPE values of 1100-1300 J/kg could
result in wind gusts of 50-60 mph.

Expect best rain coverage from late afternoon into the evening
hours. However, at least scattered showers and a few storms should
persist into the overnight hours. Tucson Metro could get in on the
rain as early as the afternoon commute.

The next several days should be an active period, with daily
rounds of thunderstorms expected. While not every location will
see rain every day, some areas could receive significant rain
totals by Monday. Increased cloud coverage and showers/thunderstorms
will result in slightly cooler daytime temperatures.

Models suggest the pattern will ease back slightly into a more
typical monsoon pattern next week, but at least isolated to
scattered thunderstorm coverage is expected each afternoon and


.AVIATION...Valid thru 29/00Z.
TSRA are expected to continue into this evening across much of
southeast Arizona. MVFR cigs and vsbys likely in TSRA with gusty
winds to 40-50 kts possible. Scattered SHRA/TSRA will linger
through the overnight hours. Another decent round of TSRA is
forecast Friday. Sfc winds generally less than 12 knots outside
of thunderstorms. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF


An active monsoon pattern will continue with daily shower/storm
chances across much of southeast Arizona into early next week. As
such, elevated humidities will remain in place through the weekend
into next week with excellent overnight recoveries. Outside of
thunderstorm winds, expect 20-foot winds to remain at or below 15
mph and follow typical upslope/down valley diurnal patterns. Fire
weather concerns are low through at least late next week.






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