Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 221029
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
330 AM MST Fri Sep 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...On this first day of fall, with the equinox occurring at
102 pm this afternoon, expect another day of gusty winds. This is
due a low pressure system over the western United States. The gusty
winds will also continue on Saturday. Cooler temperatures arrive
today, with readings holding below average through at least the
middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Gusty winds will continue today and Saturday as an
upper level trof slowly moves through the intermountain west. This
feature will also bring cooler temperatures, especially this
weekend, along with a slight chance of precipitation to mainly the
White Mountains on Saturday. Could see a few sprinkles later today
but better chance of measurable on Saturday.

Upper level trofiness will remain over the area most of next week
with some reinforcing energy dropping into the state around mid-week
keeping temperatures below normal. Still some uncertainty in the
models/ensembles on where a potential closed low may develop, which
would bring an increase in moisture from the east. At this time kept
slight chance of showers/t-storms across the eastern areas for the
Tue-Fri time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid thru 23/12Z.
Isolated -TSRA/-SHRA this afternoon mainly across the White
Mountains northeast of KSAD. Otherwise, VFR conditions into Saturday
morning. Surface wind late this morning and this afternoon swly 12-
20 kts with gusts to near 30 kts. Surface wind variable in direction
mainly less than 12 kts at other times. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...There is a slight chance of thunderstorms mainly
across the White Mountains this afternoon and Saturday. Dry
conditions will prevail area-wide Sunday into Monday. A slight
chance of thunderstorms returns to the White Mountains Tuesday, then
a slight chance of thunderstorms exists east of Tucson Wednesday and
Thursday. Expect gusty southwest 20-foot winds late this morning
into this afternoon this afternoon and Saturday. 20-foot winds will
then be terrain driven less than 15 mph Sunday into next Thursday.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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