Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 191038
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
335 AM MST FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN
PROVIDE REDUCED RAINFALL CHANCES NEXT WEEK. EXPECT GRADUALLY WARMER
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...INTERESTING MORNING SO FAR WITH ISOLATED LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION...MAINLY SW OF TUCSON AND OVER THE RINCON MOUNTAINS.
RADAR BASED RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE IN THE 0.50"-1" RANGE SO FAR. ONE
RAIN GAUGES IN THE RINCONS RECORDED 1.10" IN AN HOUR HOUR. 00Z/06Z
NAM MODEL HAS BEEN SHOWING CONVECTIVE BULLS-EYES WHILE GFS/ECMWF ARE
NOT. HAVE LEANED THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE NAM FOR
THE MOUNTAINS WHICH MEANS INCREASING POPS THERE. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...SHOULD SEE A TYPICAL MONSOON FORECAST WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAINING HIGH. THERE WILL BE ISOLATED HEAVY RAINERS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

THE WEAK UPPER LOW OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WILL DROP SOUTH
TODAY BEFORE BOTTOMING OUT WEST OF LA THEN LIFT NE INTO NEVADA BY
SUNDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
STORMS WITH BEST CHANCES BEING FROM TUCSON EAST.

DRIER AIR MOVES OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER WLY FLOW ALOFT
WITH UPPER HIGH CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH. HIGHS WILL BE AT OR NEAR
NORMALS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 20/12Z.
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA ACROSS SE AZ THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE MAY ALSO BE A FEW HOURS OF
FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AT THE KOLS/KDUG TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...CLOUD
DECKS INTO FRI EVENING ESPECIALLY KTUS VICINITY EWD WILL BE AT 5-10K
FT AGL...AND SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN
PROVIDE DRIER CONDITIONS WITH LESSER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...THE TUCSON AIRPORT HAS RECORDED 3 STRAIGHT DAYS WITH
HIGHS LESS THAN 85 DEGREES. THIS IS THE LONGEST SEPTEMBER STRETCH
SINCE 1985.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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