Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 031338
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
738 AM MDT WED JUN 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 237 AM MDT WED JUN 3 2015

UPPER WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS...PUSHING THE WEAKENING
SHOWERS EASTWARD. BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST CONTINUES TO
PUT THE REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. SURFACE LOW IS OVER SOUTHEASTERN
ND...AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS PASSING THROUGH THE CWA. WINDS
ARE NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10KTS...WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S AND LOWER
60S.

THIS MORNING WILL BE DRY...EXCEPT FOR A FEW POSSIBLE LATE MORNING
SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE BLACK HILLS. UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MLCAPE WILL BE AROUND 2000
J/KG THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND
FAR SOUTHERN SD...WITH LAPSE RATES IN THOSE AREAS AROUND 7 C/KM.
WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS...MAY BE ONE OR TWO STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS IN THOSE AREAS. OVERALL...INGREDIENTS ARE NOT AS
IMPRESSIVE AS THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...SO DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND TO THE
NORTHEAST AS WAVE PUSHES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL
BE IN THE 70S...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 50S.

COLD CANADIAN HIGH WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ON
THURSDAY. EAST/SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW WILL BRING IN MOISTURE...AND
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE GRADUALLY
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WY AND SOUTHWESTERN SD WITH
IMPRESSIVE CAPE AND MARGINAL SHEAR DEVELOPING THERE BY 21Z...ALONG
WITH ANOTHER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. PRECIPITABLE
WATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT REMAINS AROUND AN INCH AND A
QUARTER...AND SO STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL MAY AGGRAVATE FLOODING
CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...AND LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 237 AM MDT WED JUN 3 2015

CLOSED UPPER LOW EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SPLIT FLOW WITH AN
ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM REINFORCING A LL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. EJECTING IMPULSES
EMANATING FROM THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AS WELL AS PASSING
NORTHERN STREAM WAVES WILL SUPPORT AN ACTIVE FLOW PATTERN FOR THE
REGION AS LL ESE FLOW RETAINS APPRECIABLE LL MOISTURE INVOF THE
REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR SHRA/TS IN MOST
IF NOT ALL OF THE FA THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. MEAN FORECAST
MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR FRI/SAT AS THE BEST PERIODS FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP CHANCES GIVEN THE EJECTION OF TWO APPRECIABLE JET
STREAKS. RETAINED THE HIGHEST POPS IN THIS PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY
LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ESP GIVEN FASTER FLOW
ALOFT WITH SUFFICIENT LL MOISTURE AND ESE UPSLOPE FLOW. SEASONAL TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL TEMPS ON TRACK THOROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 735 AM MDT WED JUN 3 2015

AN AREA OF IFR CIGS DUE TO ST WILL AFFECT FAR NORTHEAST WY ONTO
THE NORTHWEST/CENTRAL SD PLAINS ALONG/NORTH OF A LINE FROM ABOUT
KGCC TO KRAP TO KICR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDS EXPECTED MOST PLACES BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. AN IMPULSE WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING
CHANCES FOR SHRA/TS...MAINLY TO NE WY AND THE PERHAPS FAR WESTERN
SD. RETAINED VCTS AT KGCC WITH NO MENTION AT KRAP GIVEN LOW
THUNDER PROBS. SHRA/TS CHANCES WILL SPREAD NE WED NIGHT...WITH SCT
MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THEN.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...HELGESON


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