Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS22 KWNS 211824
FWDDY2

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1223 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...

...Portions of southern/western Texas...
Strong northwesterly winds, from 25-35 mph, are still anticipated
across the region, with gusts up to 45 mph possible. Additionally,
guidance continues to indicate highs in the upper 70s to low 80s (8
to 12 degrees above-average) and minimum RH values from 15 to 20
percent across deep south Texas. This matches the previous forecast
well and critical fire weather conditions are still expected across
the region. The only change to the previous outlook is a slight
northwestward expansion of both the critical and elevated areas.

..Mosier.. 01/21/2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017/

...Synopsis...
A closed low will deepen as it translates east across the southeast
states and a strong jet maximum rotates around its southern/eastern
periphery. To its west, strong west/northwesterly flow aloft will
overspread much of southern Texas and the northwest Gulf of Mexico.
At the surface, a cyclone will rapidly migrate east from Arkansas to
the Carolinas, with high pressure building in its wake over the
Southwest.

...Portions of southern/western Texas...
A tight pressure gradient will persist across much of Texas during
the day, resulting in windy conditions in many locations. In
combination with the aforementioned mid-level flow, this gradient
will support sustained winds of 30-35 mph, with gusts upwards of 45
mph as deep mixing encourages downward transport of stronger flow.
With ample downslope drying/warming, temperatures will climb into
the 70s/low 80s and RH values will fall below 20-25 percent across
far southern Texas. As fuels will have cured some over the previous
day, these meteorological conditions should support a critical
fire-weather threat on Sunday. Additionally, elevated concerns will
exist farther northwest across the Edwards Plateau and Permian
Basin. Here, RH values will be slightly higher, but windy conditions
should still support some elevated concerns.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$


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