Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS22 KWNS 251851

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z


Only changes to the ongoing forecast were to expand the critical in
portions of the Texas South Plains/Panhandle northward slightly,
where recent model guidance suggests near-critical conditions will
develop during the afternoon.  Elevated (and perhaps locally
critical) fire weather conditions may also occur into the
northeastern Texas Panhandle and portions of far western Oklahoma
for a few hours as westerly low-level flow advects a dry airmass
into these areas.  The eastern edge of the elevated/critical areas
is dependent on the eastward extent of mixing/drying along and west
of a dryline that should approach the US 281 corridor in
central/western north Texas during the afternoon.  This region will
be refined further in later outlooks as details become clearer.

Remainder of the forecast is on track.  See the previous discussion
below for more information.

..Cook.. 03/25/2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0250 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017/

A fast-moving, low-amplitude shortwave trough will continue to move
east across the southern United States during the forecast period.
This wave will induce surface cyclogenesis in the vicinity of
southeast Colorado. This surface cyclone will slowly move
east-southeast toward the Red River Valley during the day before
turning east-northeast overnight.

...Southern Rocky Mountains and Southern Plains...
As the surface low develops/strengthens across the southern High
Plains, surface winds are expected to increase across much of the
south-central United States. The details as to how and where the
surface low develops, will play a large role in the evolving
fire-weather threat.

To the south and west of the surface low, westerly winds will
promote downslope warming and drying. To the east and east-southeast
of the surface low, southeast surface winds will draw Gulf of Mexico
moisture northwestward. At this time it appears that the surface low
will develop in the vicinity of the southeast Colorado and the
western part of the Oklahoma Panhandle. This would establish a
dryline during the afternoon very near the 100 degree west
longitude. To the west of this dryline, surface winds in the 20-30
mph range, coupled with relative humidity in the 10-15% range will
result in critical fire-weather conditions across portions of New
Mexico and southwest Texas.

East of the critical area, surface winds should remain sufficiently
strong to result in fire-weather concerns. Exactly where critical
conditions develop will be strongly influenced by where the dryline
is located.

...Please see for graphic product...

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