Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS22 KWNS 171935

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0134 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2018

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z


Confidence is a bit higher in a corridor of critical conditions
developing from northeastern New Mexico into portions of western
Kansas D2/Sun afternoon.  Areas of 20-30 mph southwesterly winds
will combine with 7-15% RH values amidst dry fuels for critical
conditions within the delineated area.  Surrounding the critical
area, uncertainty regarding minimum RH values precludes any upgrade
at this time, although elevated conditions remain likely especially
away from deeper boundary layer moisture (expected over west Texas
and vicinity).  Observational trends will need to be monitored for
potential of mixing of the dryline in central Kansas farther east
than currently depicted, which may result in higher fire weather
danger in that area.

See the previous discussion for more information.

..Cook.. 02/17/2018

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2018/

The upper pattern over the CONUS will amplify on Day 2/Sunday as an
upper trough develops over the western states. Mid-level
southwesterly flow should strengthen into generally the 45-60 kt
range over the southern/central High Plains Sunday afternoon. A
surface low is forecast to form over eastern CO and then advance
eastward across KS/NE through the period. Lee troughing will extend
southward from this low across the southern/central High Plains. An
area of high pressure initially centered over the OH/TN Valleys will
shift eastward to the western Atlantic by Sunday evening.

...Portions of the Southern/Central High Plains...
An enhanced surface pressure gradient will exist across parts of the
southern/central High Plains on Day 2/Sunday between the eastern CO
low and high pressure over the OH/TN Valleys. In addition, the
strong mid-level winds mentioned above will likely reach the surface
Sunday afternoon as the boundary layer becomes well mixed. Both of
these features will contribute to strong/gusty southwesterly surface
winds of 15-30 mph across parts of eastern NM/CO, western KS, and
the TX/OK Panhandles. Higher gusts to 40-45 mph appear likely.

The limiting factor precluding the introduction of a critical area
for now remains uncertainty regarding the reduction of RH values
across this region Sunday afternoon. Most short-term guidance
suggests low-level moisture will be increasing across the southern
High Plains through the day, which may tend to limit the degree of
lowered RH values, especially with southward extent into
east-central NM and parts of the TX Panhandle. Still, there is
enough agreement amongst model guidance to support an elevated
delineation where RH values should become lowered at least into the
15-20% range for a few hours. The best potential for locally
critical conditions appears to be across parts of southeastern CO
into far northeastern NM, the far western OK Panhandle, and a small
portion of western KS. An upgrade to critical may be needed in a
later update if confidence increases in RH values of 10-15%
occurring for at least three hours across this area.

...Please see for graphic product...

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