Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS01 KWNS 050500
SWODY1
SPC AC 050459

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1059 PM CST WED MAR 04 2015

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT ALSO OCCUR
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
A POSITIVELY TILTED MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE SRN PLAINS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
WILL LIFT NEWD AND BE ADVANCING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY EARLY FRI
MORNING. A SHARP COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM
THE CNTRL GULF COAST TO COASTAL NC AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.
THE FRONT WILL SHIFT SEWD...AND LIE W/E ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN FL
PENINSULA EARLY FRI MORNING.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY WITHIN AN ANAFRONTAL-FLOW REGIME OWING TO THE GRAZING
INFLUENCE OF THE MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND RELATED ASCENT.
HOWEVER...AN INFLUX OF DEEPER POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE EROSION OF THE CAPE-SUPPORTING WARM LAYER ALOFT
AND A CORRESPONDING DECREASE IN MUCAPE/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL BY
MID/LATE MORNING.

MEANWHILE...DIURNAL HEATING OF THE MOISTENING PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LAYER FROM PARTS OF THE FL PANHANDLE TO SC MAY SUPPORT SUFFICIENT
BUOYANCY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD OCCUR
AS THE FRONT UNDERCUTS THE DESTABILIZING SFC LAYER...OFFERING
SUFFICIENT ASCENT FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE CONUS FOR
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

..COHEN/GOSS.. 03/05/2015



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