Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS01 KWNS 241237
SPC AC 241235

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0635 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2017

Valid 241300Z - 251200Z


Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the Lower 48
states today.

...Southeast New England today...
A deep occluded cyclone will move northeastward near the southeast
New England coast today through tonight.  Low-level warm advection
immediately ahead of the cyclone, and modest midlevel lapse rates,
could support some elevated convection with isolated lightning
strikes today across extreme southeast New England.

...Upper Midwest through tonight...
A midlevel trough over the central High Plains this morning will
eject east-northeastward to portions of the middle and upper MS
Valley by tonight.  Marginal moisture return suggests that deep
ascent will be needed to reach saturation, which is most likely
along and north of the low track (within the left-exit region of the
mid-upper jet).  Here, conditionally unstable midlevel lapse rates
will support weak midlevel buoyancy and the potential for a few
elevated thunderstorms.  Farther south, a modifying moist air mass
will return northward to east TX.  Weak low-level warm advection
could support a few showers near the end of the period across
northeast TX, but the risk for thunderstorms appears sufficiently
low to preclude adding an outlook area.

...Southern CA coast into parts of the southern Rockies today...
Steep low-midlevel lapse rates will persist in a belt on the
cyclonic side of the midlevel jet.  Isolated thunderstorms will be
possible within this regime of weak buoyancy, where the marine
influence is most pronounced near and just off the southern CA
coast, and with daytime heating across the higher terrain of
northern AZ and NM.

..Thompson.. 01/24/2017

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