Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS01 KWNS 010056
SWODY1
SPC AC 010054

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

VALID 010100Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING ACROSS  PARTS OF
NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE
OZARK PLATEAU AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

...SYNOPSIS/OZARK PLATEAU INTO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
STRONGEST LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN FOCUSED
IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROUGH...TRAILING SOUTHWARD FROM A
SURFACE LOW NEAR QUINCY IL INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU.  SEASONABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE BENEATH MODEST STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
APPEARS TO HAVE SUPPORTED MODERATELY LARGE MIXED LAYER CAPE IN
EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG ALONG THIS AXIS.  THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO COINCIDE WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG
AND NORTH OF A CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL JET /50+ KT AT 500 MB/ NOSING EAST
NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS.

ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS...THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS PROBABLY PEAKED...AS IT APPEARS CONVECTION HAS IMPACTED
MUCH OF THE AXIS OF STRONGER INSTABILITY...AND BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLING ELSEWHERE COMMENCES.

ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI...MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY BEGIN TO WEAKEN SHORTLY.
 HOWEVER...LINGERING MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY MAY
MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT A BIT
LONGER THAN AREAS TO THE NORTH.  THIS COULD BE SUPPORTED BY RESIDUAL
LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION FOR A PERIOD...AFTER INHIBITION BEGINS
TO INCREASE FOR BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS WITH THE PROGRESSION OF
RADIATIONAL SURFACE COOLING.

..KERR.. 05/01/2016

$$


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