Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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748
ACUS01 KWNS 280059
SWODY1
SPC AC 280058

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Valid 280100Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN TENNESSEE AND INTO ADJACENT NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND
NORTHERN ALABAMA...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
MID-OHIO VALLEY SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue for the next few hours
(i.e. a good portion of the evening) -- centered over the Tennessee
Valley area.  Hail and damaging winds will be the primary severe
risks.

...Mid-Ohio Valley south-southwest to the Mississippi Delta area...
Numerous showers and thunderstorms continue across the region --
though a gradual decrease in intensity continues early this evening
as a combination of diurnal effects and widespread convective
overturning is resulting in a generally stabilizing environment
across much of the area.

Greatest severe risk appears likely to linger over parts of southern
Middle Tennessee and into northeast Mississippi and northern
Alabama, in conjunction with a fairly well-organized band of storms
currently crossing Middle Tennessee (just southeast of the upper low
which is now centered in the vicinity of western Kentucky).  With
500 to 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE ahead of this convective band in
conjunction with enhanced westerly flow aloft on the south side of
the upper system, stronger cells will likely maintain potential to
produce hail in excess of severe levels and locally damaging winds
-- possibly into the late evening hours before diminishing.

..Goss.. 03/28/2017

$$



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