Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS02 KWNS 291731
SWODY2
SPC AC 291730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
LOCALIZED SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...SYNOPSIS...
AN EXPANSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED FROM JAMES BAY
S ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. A COUPLE OF WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSES SHOULD
GRADUALLY PROGRESS SE FROM THE CNTRL ROCKIES TO SRN PLAINS ON THE
FRINGE OF THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME. AT THE SURFACE...A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED NEAR THE RED RIVER OF THE S.

...RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE SOUTH...
LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
MID-LEVEL IMPULSES SHOULD AID IN SUSTAINING A LARGE NON-SEVERE
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ACROSS PARTS OF OK/S KS/N TX AT 12Z/WED.
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION N OF THE FRONT IN CONTRAST TO ROBUST
INSOLATION S OF THE BOUNDARY WILL YIELD A PRONOUNCED DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING CORRIDOR /LIKELY INVOF THE RED RIVER/. OVERALL BUOYANCY WILL
REMAIN WEAK...BUT SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR AS
SURFACE DEW POINTS REACH THE UPPER 60S. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT
AND STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD FOSTER RENEWED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH
MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE MODEST...VERTICALLY VEERING 0-3 KM
WIND PROFILES COULD YIELD TRANSIENT LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES WITHIN
EMBEDDED CLUSTERS THAT ARE CAPABLE OF A BRIEF TORNADO AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS.

...MIDWEST/LOWER GREAT LAKES...
SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK BUOYANCY AND MODEST
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING GRADUAL
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES DURING THE DAY. THIS WARMING ALOFT SHOULD
TEMPER HAIL SIZE GROWTH AND RESULT IN ONLY SMALL HAIL IN THE
STRONGEST UPDRAFTS.

..GRAMS.. 07/29/2014




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