Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS02 KWNS 230523
SWODY2
SPC AC 230523

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1223 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS UPPER GREAT LAKES...MIDWEST...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND MIDWEST REGIONS...ALONG WITH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...MAINLY
SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE SHOULD TRACK EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO DURING THE PERIOD. ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL PROGRESS EAST OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...WITH TRAILING
PORTION BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS KS.

...UPPER GREAT LAKES...MIDWEST...
DECAYING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT 12Z/SUN IN THE
VICINITY OF LAKE SUPERIOR TO LAKE MICHIGAN. REMNANTS OF THIS
ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST EASTWARD ACROSS LOWER MI AND ADJACENT STATES
WITHIN A CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME. GUIDANCE DIFFERS
SUBSTANTIALLY WITH THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION IN THE WAKE OF
THESE MORNING STORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE IMPINGING COLD FRONT...AS
WELL AS TIMING OF THE FRONT. WITH NEAR-NEUTRAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
CHANGE THROUGH 25/00Z ALONG THE FRONT...MOST MODELS INDICATE MINIMAL
CONVECTIVE QPF DURING PEAK HEATING. THUS...THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS RATHER CONDITIONAL.

SUN EVENING/NIGHT...MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE
WARM SECTOR AND YIELD WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS ALONG THE FRONT AND
ANY REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING CONVECTION. THIS APPEARS
MOST PROBABLE ACROSS PARTS OF LOWER MI INTO CENTRAL IL. STRONGER
MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES SHOULD LARGELY LAG BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
MODERATE DEEP SHEAR MIGHT SUPPORT A MODESTLY ORGANIZED CLUSTER OR
TWO NORTH...WHEREAS LARGER BUOYANCY SHOULD COMPENSATE FOR WEAK SHEAR
SOUTH. ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARDS.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONT LIKELY
BISECTING KS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD OCCUR BENEATH A BELT
OF WEAK TO MODERATE MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES PERIPHERALLY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ONTARIO SHORTWAVE THROUGH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
SHOULD FORM LATE DAY INTO EVENING ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES INTO
WESTERN KS. AMID WEAK BUOYANCY...SETUP MAY FOSTER MULTICELL CLUSTERS
AND EMBEDDED WEAKLY ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED SEVERE
WIND/HAIL.

..GRAMS.. 07/23/2016

$$


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