Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS02 KWNS 050638
SWODY2
SPC AC 050638

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 AM CST MON DEC 05 2016

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM A PORTION OF NORTHERN
FLORIDA THROUGH SOUTHERN GEORGIA...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH
SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
AT LEAST A MARGINAL RISK FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH
DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO WILL EXIST TUESDAY FROM
NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA.

...NORTHERN FLORIDA...SOUTH GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...

DEAMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EARLY
TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY.
OCCLUDED LEE CYCLONE OVER THE OH VALLEY WILL WEAKEN...WHILE SECONDARY
CYCLOGENESIS COMMENCES OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST IN RESPONSE TO
THE DEAMPLIFYING WAVE. A WEAKLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WILL HAVE MOVED
INLAND THROUGH SOUTH GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE
SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN PROGRESS EARLY
TUESDAY ALONG PRE-FRONTAL WARM CONVEYOR BELT FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE THROUGH A PORTION OF EASTERN ALABAMA INTO WESTERN GEORGIA.
MOIST INFLOW TO THE UPDRAFTS WILL BE ROOTED NEAR THE SURFACE WITH
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 F DEWPOINTS...AND STORMS WILL BE EMBEDDED
WITHIN STRONG 0-6 KM SHEAR WITH INITIALLY LARGE 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS
PROMOTING A RISK FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN FLORIDA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND
SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR A FEW DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. IT STILL APPEARS THAT WEAK
LAPSE RATES...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND ONGOING AREAS OF RAIN WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN WEAK INSTABILITY WHICH MAY SERVE AS AN OVERALL LIMITING
FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE EVENT. AS INITIAL OCCLUDED LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND NEW CYCLOGENESIS COMMENCES OFF THE
CAROLINA COASTS...TENDENCY WILL BE FOR THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO VEER TO
SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH MID MORNING WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
HODOGRAPH SIZE. THEREFORE...GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
CONFINED TO A RELATIVELY SMALL WINDOW BETWEEN 12-18Z.

..DIAL.. 12/05/2016

$$


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