Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS02 KWNS 280600
SWODY2
SPC AC 280559

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THE TX PANHANDLE AND TX
SOUTH PLAINS/CAPROCK...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SERN CO/SWRN KS SWD INTO
ERN NM/WRN OK AND SWRN TX...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL AND
SRN GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FROM THE
MID-UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO SRN
CANADA.  A SURFACE LOW OVER SRN CANADA IS FORECAST TO MIGRATE NEWD
TOWARDS JAMES BAY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY.  FARTHER W...A WEAK MID-LEVEL LOW WILL
MOVE ONLY SLOWLY EWD ACROSS SRN CA AND A LEAD IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE IN THE DAY.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO SWRN KS/SERN CO...
A LEE TROUGH AND THE WESTWARD RETREAT OF THE DRYLINE INTO THE WRN
PORTIONS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASINGLY
MOIST SELY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW INTO ERN NM/W TX.  STRONG HEATING
AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 1000 J/KG MLCAPE
FROM THE CO/KS/OK REGION TO 2500 J/KG ACROSS PARTS OF W TX.  WHILE
MID-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE MODEST /20-30 KT/...SELY LOW-LEVEL
WINDS VEERING TO WLY IN THE MID LEVELS WILL RESULT IN 30-40 KT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS WITH AN INITIAL
HAIL/WIND THREAT.  MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED STORMS WILL FORM W/NW NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
SPREAD/DEVELOP SEWD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS A SLY
LLJ STRENGTHENS TO 35 KT BY 03Z.  UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A STORM
CLUSTER IS EXPECTED BY EARLY-MID EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SEVERE GUSTS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE INTO ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF FAR WRN OK AND THE TX S PLAINS.  LESS CONFIDENCE EXISTS
ATTM IN STORM COVERAGE FARTHER S OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN AND SW TX.
IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES FOR HIGHER STORM COVERAGE...HIGHER SEVERE
PROBABILITIES MAY BE WARRANTED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

...CNTRL/SRN GREAT LAKES...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY
AS SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINS A FETCH OF 60S DEG F DEWPOINTS.
WEAK MID-LEVEL ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD A
DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR.  MODERATE BUOYANCY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MODEST AND SUPPORT A
MULTICELLULAR MODE.  ISOLD LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS WILL LIKELY BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY
WEAKENS DURING THE EVENING.

...CAROLINAS COAST...
T.D. TWO OFF THE SERN U.S. COAST WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE CAROLINA
COAST DURING THE DAY.  WEAK BUOYANCY/WIND PROFILE WILL LIKELY
PRECLUDE A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WITH CONVECTION THAT MOVES ASHORE.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECASTS REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE
DEVELOPING TROPICAL SYSTEM.

..SMITH.. 05/28/2016

$$



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