Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 252345

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
744 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.


The Monsoon Trough extends SW from the coast of western Africa at
09N13W to 00N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues
from 00N19W to 04S27W to the coast of Brazil near 00N47W.
Isolated showers are observed within 100 nm on either side of the
boundaries between 25W-42W.



Weak high pressure ridges northwestward from the western
Caribbean across the eastern and central Gulf. The western portion
of the basin is dominated by a broad surface trough with axis
along the eastern Mexico coast. Scatterometer data depicts light
to gentle anticyclonic winds over the east and central Gulf
waters east of 92W while moderate to fresh southerly winds are
prevailing west of 92W. The high pressure ridge will drift
eastward as a cold front approaches the northwest Gulf from Texas
on Wednesday morning. Return flow over the northwest Gulf will
increase as the cold front approaches, with south winds over the
Western Gulf becoming fresh to strong by early Wednesday. The
front will then enter the western portion of the basin on
Wednesday night.


A 1014 mb high is located near 22N83W. To the east, a surface
trough extends from 14N73W to the Colombian low centered near
09N70W. No significant convection is observed at this time.
Scatterometer data depicts moderate trades over the eastern
Caribbean east of 70W while light to gentle winds prevail
elsewhere. The trough is expected to lift northeast during the
next 24 hours. Winds will remain light to moderate.


Divergent upper-level flow prevails across the island supporting
isolated showers. This activity will dissipate overnight. The
upper-level trough that is supporting the diffluence aloft will
move northeast through the next 24 hours allowing for the
atmospheric conditions to stabilize across the island.


A cold front enters the discussion area near 31N73W to 25N75W then
becomes weak to 23N79W. A surface trough extends east of the front
from 30N72W to 22N69W. To the east of the trough, a diffluent flow
aloft supports scattered light to moderate convection north of 22N
between 62W-68W. Ridging prevails over the central Atlantic
between low pressure system over the Carolinas and a broad area
of low pressure centered northeast of the Canary Islands near
35N24W. The low system over the Carolinas is expected to head
northeast during the next 24 hours while the ridge over the
central Atlantic and low system near the Canary Islands will
remain in place. This will maintain similar weather conditions in
these areas. As the cold front moves slowly east int he west
Atlantic, it will continue to weaken and eventually dissipate by
Wednesday evening.

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